Investor's Corner
Tesla Model Y expected to surprise in upcoming Q4 2019 earnings call
Tesla may be incredibly quiet and conservative with its Model Y timeframes, but if recent sightings and alleged leaks are any indications, it appears that the upcoming all-electric crossover is coming sooner than expected. An announcement of its impending release is expected to be made by company executives on the upcoming Q4 2019 Financial Results and earnings call, scheduled for January 29 at 3:30 PM PST.
The past few weeks have been rife with an incredible amount of Model Y release candidate sightings across the United States. Unlike the first Model Y crossovers that were spotted on American roads, the vehicles in recent sightings were more refined and production-ready. Tesla has even allowed images of the Model Y’s third-row seats, a somewhat controversial option due to their legroom and size, to be photographed.
Apart from this, Model Y VINs have been registered by the electric car maker with the NHTSA. One could recall that when Tesla did the same thing for the Model 3, the all-electric sedan’s first deliveries turned out to be just about a month away. The VIN registrations come on the heels of the Model Y’s CARB registration on January 9, which included some interesting tidbits of information about the vehicle’s range.
This seems to be a solid sign of the Model Y’s impending arrival as well. Back during the days of the Model 3 ramp, the company signed the Long Range RWD variant’s CARB certificate on July 3, 2017, just 25 days before deliveries began on July 28. With these in mind, it appears that the Model Y’s first deliveries, or at least the start of its mass production, is starting earlier than expected. It does, if any, line up with a rumor shared by Tesla enthusiast @moez on Twitter, which claimed that a Tesla employee had mentioned the start of the upcoming vehicle’s first deliveries.
It remains to be seen if @moez’s information is accurate, as Tesla employees are known to keep vital company information secret. Nevertheless, it does make sense in a way, considering everything that Tesla has been preparing and exhibiting in the United States so far. The fact that Elon Musk has also launched the Model Y program in China at Gigafactory 3’s first MIC Model 3 customer deliveries is just icing on the cake.
Tesla China, after all, will likely develop its Model Y program faster than its American counterpart. Made-in-China Teslas are off to a great running start with MIC Model 3s being made with stellar build quality. If the electric car maker can keep up this pace with the Model Y, then its presence in China will likely get significantly boosted once more.
The upcoming Q4 2019 earnings call on January 29 will hold several critical updates about the company’s ongoing projects, such as Gigafactory 3 in China and Gigafactory 4 in Europe. If signs and sightings are any indication, it would not be surprising at all if Elon Musk or any other Tesla executives would release an update on the Model Y’s mass production and first deliveries as well. And if these turn out to be sooner rather than later, Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry will likely get far more prominent very, very quickly.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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