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Investor's Corner

Is Tesla’s ‘next era’ really without TSLA?

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With just a few Tweets, Elon Musk announced that he intends to take Tesla private. The move came less than a week after the company’s Q2 earnings call, where Musk doubled-down on his promise to bring the company to profit in the second half of 2018. With Musk steadying his hand, it seemed he was pushing forward a “new era” for Tesla, one that aims for mild profitability, rapid growth, and continuing innovation. What’s changed?

“Grandiose promises were replaced with reachable projections, relentless growth was met with fiscal responsibility, and shaky improvisation gave way to clarity,” written in last week’s post-earnings column.

Over the last few years, Musk has often wondered aloud how Tesla would be different if it weren’t public. In Rolling Stone’s cover story of Musk last fall, he stated, “It actually makes us less efficient to be a public company.” Musk also told Bloomberg in a 2015 interview that there is “a lot of noise” when a company is public.

Would Tesla have existed without going public in 2010?

Short Answer. No.

Long Answer. Maybe.

When Tesla went public in June 2010, the company needed the cash. They were aiming to push the Model S into production and needed every dime to hire factory workers and renovate the factory. Going public for Tesla worked. The company was able to move the Model S into production and was delivering a few hundred vehicles per week before raising more money from the capital markets.

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Since going public, Tesla has raised nearly $10B through debt and equity offerings (Not including the acquisition of SolarCity’s debt). It’s a sizable amount, but it pales in comparison to some private companies. For example, Uber, Lyft, and WeWork have all raised billions in the last few years. Uber has raised over $21B since its founding in 2009, Lyft has raised $4.9B since its start in 2012, and WeWork has raised $6.9B in the last 8 years.

Before Tesla went public, Musk had to pour his fortune into the company just to convince others to invest. In the past eight years, the private markets have gained a tremendous appetite. No deal is too big. No ask is ridiculous.

Who wants in on “Private Tesla”?

A lot of names have been floating around in the past day. Who’s backing Elon’s private deal? The Saudi Wealth Fund? Tencent? Softbank? Google? All of the above?

In 2016, Softbank created a $93B Vision Fund. The fund has been making massive bets everywhere, Uber, Flipkart, WeWork, NVidia, and many more. Participating in “new Tesla” wouldn’t be out of character and it would be hard to see the company passing on one of the largest private deals in history.

The Saudi Wealth Fund and Tencent both recently made sizable equity positions in the company. Tesla going private could afford them a chance to grab a board seat and a larger share of the company. The Saudi Wealth Fund announced their sizable stake yesterday morning and Tencent announced theirs in March 2017.

Google? Did I just throw them out there? The company already owns a chunk of Musk’s SpaceX and in Ashlee Vance’s 2015 biography of Elon Musk, it was revealed that Google mulled acquiring the company for $6B in early 2013 (Tesla was worth $3-4B at the time). Google’s parent company has over $100B in cash on hand, so a sizable investment into Tesla is certainly doable.

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Outside of those specific entities, its worth noting that Tesla could draw significant capital from Silicon Valley. While most private equity in the valley goes to companies far smaller than Tesla, it wouldn’t be shocking to see venture firms and fellow billionaires take a position in Tesla.

So what does “Private Tesla” really look like?

In Musk’s perfect “Private Tesla” scenario, he envisions all current investors to keeping their shares with the company. But how would that really work? Musk claims that it would be structured similarly to SpaceX, which allows employees and investors to buy or sell stock every 6 months (or other liquidation events, ie. investments). That structure gives Tesla much tighter control of the share price, preventing volatility.

Highlighted in a report from The Information, current SpaceX shareholders receive a disclosure packet, along with updated financials, every 5-9 months. The process allows the company to set their own share price, after gauging outside and inside interest in acquiring or selling shares. SpaceX currently holds a valuation of $28B.

“We can afford to be picky (with investors). There’s a lot more people wanting our stock than we are willing to sell. It’s a great place to be in.” – Gwynne Shotwell, COO of SpaceX (CNBC, May 2018)

With Tesla being private, the company would forgo reporting quarterly earnings, most SEC filings, and annual shareholders meetings. Additionally, Tesla would have more flexibility in their accounting practices and reporting and less regulatory concerns. Essentially, as Musk as stated, the company would be able to operate more efficiently.

Only time will tell if Musk can pull off  “taking Tesla private”. Given the size of the private markets and Musk’s drive to reduce distractions within the company, Tesla could certainly end up going private. I wouldn’t bet against Musk, just a personal rule, and it wouldn’t be out-of-character for Musk to pull off the impossible.

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Great reads:

Tesla board curbs critics’ doubts as Elon Musk’s privatization plan starts forming (Teslarati)

Elon Musk: The Architect of Tomorrow (Rolling Stone)

Google almost bought Tesla when it had just two weeks of cash left (The Guardian)

How SoftBank Is Reshaping Global Tech (The Information)

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Christian Prenzler is currently the VP of Business Development at Teslarati, leading strategic partnerships, content development, email newsletters, and subscription programs. Additionally, Christian thoroughly enjoys investigating pivotal moments in the emerging mobility sector and sharing these stories with Teslarati's readers. He has been closely following and writing on Tesla and disruptive technology for over seven years. You can contact Christian here: christian@teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk drops a Thanksgiving hint about Starship’s biggest test yet

Elon Musk says Starship Flight 15 will try to catch the ship itself, a first.

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Elon Musk says SpaceX’s next Starship flight will try something nobody has done before, by catching the ship itself. Speaking to roughly 2,000 people at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas on Saturday, Musk said Flight 15 is about four to six weeks away and “probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving, is my guess.”

That is a slip from earlier reporting, which had pointed to a launch as early as October 19. Musk explained why the date keeps moving. “We’re making a bunch of improvements to the rocket between every flight,” he said, adding that there are often hundreds, sometimes thousands, of small changes. This time the list is short, “but some of them take a fair bit of work and we’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.”

“We’re going to try to catch the ship, which is a super big deal,” Musk said. “If we do so, that’ll be the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket.” SpaceX has already caught the Super Heavy booster with the tower’s mechanical arms, and has talked about catching the ship since late 2025, but the upper stage has never been caught.

Musk also laid out what comes after. “The next big milestone would be to refly both the booster and the ship,” he said, describing a Flight 16 where “all parts of an orbital rocket are reflown.”

The reason SpaceX wants this comes down to cost and cadence. Every Starship ship so far has ended its flight in the ocean, and SpaceX expects most of those water landings to end in fireballs. A ship that returns to Starbase intact can be inspected and flown again. SpaceX’s IPO filing, says Starship V3 is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to orbit in a fully reusable configuration, that SpaceX aims to cut the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more versus the historical average, and that tower catches should allow “multiple launches per day.”

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The payoff goes beyond cheaper launches. The next generation Starlink V3 satellites are too large for Falcon 9 and can only fly on Starship, which can carry up to 60 per flight. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed the first 26 of them after Starship reached orbit despite an early engine shutdown, as Teslarati reported. Musk blamed engine computer software, and said the heat shield “was extremely robust,” which he claimed in August had solved Starship’s biggest challenge.

NASA’s Moon plans depend on the same capability. NASA’s inspector general has described a lander mission that needs a propellant depot in low Earth orbit and more than 10 tanker flights, with SpaceX targeting one tanker launch every six days. That schedule only works if ships and boosters come back fast and fly again. Also, ship to ship propellant transfer has not been attempted yet.

One interesting hurdle yet to be explored is bringing the ship back to the launch site, with reentry over land, which will undoubtedly come with a lot of aviation safety reviews.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions

SpaceX reveals plans for one million Starmind AI satellites and calls out operators hiding maneuvers.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX Starmind constellation via Grok
Concept rendering of SpaceX Starmind constellation via Grok

SpaceX has put the largest satellite count it has ever published into writing, and it says that plan only works if every other operator in orbit starts sharing what it knows.

In a new Space Safety page highlighted Tuesday morning by Sawyer Merritt on X, SpaceX said it “plans to operate up to 100,000 Starlink satellites and up to 1 million Starmind AI satellites to meet the growing demand for broadband and supercompute.” Starlink has a little over 11,000 satellites in orbit today, so the target alone implies roughly a ninefold expansion of the broadband network.

Starmind is SpaceX’s orbital AI compute constellation. Elon Musk confirmed the Starmind name in June after an xAI trademark filing surfaced, and in August SpaceX said it was working with Nvidia on the compute payload. The FCC accepted the filing for up to one million satellites back in February.

FCC accepts SpaceX filing for 1 million orbital data center plan

SpaceX also released a new render of what a full Starmind constellation could look like. Alongside it, SpaceX VP Michael Nicolls explained why the satellites will not operate on their own. “We need to operate clusters of satellites in tight formation to get enough coherent compute to run AI models efficiently,” Nicolls said. “A cluster will be 10-ish satellites connected with 10 terabits or so of bandwidth between them, and interconnected to the broader constellation.”

That is the most specific detail SpaceX has given on how Starmind will be built. Instead of a million independent servers, the network would work as tightly packed groups of about 10 satellites acting as one compute unit, with Starlink’s laser links carrying results back to Earth.

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Packing satellites that close together, at that scale, makes collision avoidance the central problem, and most of the Space Safety page is aimed at other operators. SpaceX said Starlink encountered collision risks with about 650 unique maneuvering third party satellites in 2026, and only about half of them shared data. Over six months, Starlink recorded roughly 164,000 more collision risks where the closest approach came within four hours of an unannounced maneuver.

Some operators keep maneuver plans private over proprietary concerns, while others cannot get government permission to share them. SpaceX called those policies “counterproductive,” saying they “largely only serve to create preventable collision risk between satellites.” Starlink is also offering a free ephemeris sharing and screening platform that returns risk results within a minute, backed by its Stargaze network of 30,000 optical sensors.

The push comes as the Starmind application draws opposition from astronomers and environmental groups. In a September filing with the FCC, SpaceX said each Starmind satellite could weigh up to 4,000 kg, nearly seven times the mass of a Starlink V2 Mini. Musk has brushed off crowding concerns before, telling viewers in June that “space is enormous” and that SpaceX already knows how to run very large constellations safely.

SpaceX’s Starmind page says its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, is designed to produce AI satellites at scale, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla deliveries best Wall Street guesses alongside second-best energy quarter

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported strong delivery figures that beat Wall Street guesses, and they were revealed alongside the company’s second-best quarter in terms of energy deployments ever.

Tesla announced this morning that it delivered 486,532 cars in Q3, while producing 464,391, exceeding analyst consensus, which sat around 462,000 units.

Meanwhile, Tesla reported 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed for the quarter. That’s the second-best quarter Tesla has ever reported on that side of things.

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Vehicle Deliveries

Deliveries were strong, and it was another quarter when Tesla had the opportunity to outshine the Wall Street pundits who are quick to criticize and slow to give credit. Tesla saw a slight decrease in deliveries compared to Q3 2025, but Tesla still had the $7,500 EV Tax Credit to use to help incentivize consumers to pick an EV.

A small decrease of 2.1 percent is pretty telling because it shows Tesla does not need massive federal credits to convince consumers to purchase its vehicles.

It was also the company’s third-best performance all-time in terms of deliveries, trailing that of Q3 2025 with 497,099 deliveries and Q4 2024, when the company handed over 495,570 cars.

We reported several days ago that Tesla Showrooms across the United States were completely bare of inventory or unclaimed units. Many locations also removed Demo Drive units, which had been bought by customers looking to take delivery sooner.

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

Energy Generation

Tesla’s Energy Generation performance in Q3 was also very strong, as the company deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage over the past three months. The only quarter when Tesla reported stronger energy deployment figures was Q4 2025, when 14.2 GWh of energy storage was deployed.

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Tesla’s Q3 performance in energy generation has continued to grow each quarter, with the company increasing its deployments by ten-fold since Q3 2021, when just 1.3 GWh was deployed.

It is also nearly double what it was in Q3 2024, when the company reported 6.9 GWh. This is one of Tesla’s quickest-growing divisions, and it flies under the radar with fans and analysts, as many are focused on self-driving or the vehicles themselves.

Tesla Stock

Shares rose 5.07 percent to $372.06 at just after 10 a.m. on the East Coast. This is a rarity for Tesla after a strong delivery report, as positive news usually brings the stock down. Many quarters with extremely robust delivery reports have not been as kind to the Teslanaires of the world.

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