Tesla’s Q3 Update Letter revealed that the electric automaker is trending toward a possible manufacturing rate of 1 million vehicles a year after a 25% increase in Quarter-over-Quarter Model 3 and Model Y production at the Fremont facility was listed in the document. Between Fremont and Giga Shanghai, Tesla is currently operating with an annual production rate of 840,000 cars a year.
Tesla’s production of both the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover increased from 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles annually from Q2 to Q3. The two update letters, which detail the company’s progress during two separate three-month spans, indicate manufacturing efficiency and newly installed production lines.
The company wrote:
“We have recently increased capacity of Model 3 / Model Y to 500,000 units a year. In order to do this, we restarted our second paint shop, installed the largest diecasting machine in the world, and upgraded our Model Y general assembly line. Production should reach full capacity toward the end of this year or beginning of next year.”
Tesla (TSLA) crushes Q3 earnings with record profit, accelerates global growth
The increase in production is expected, as Tesla expanded its Model Y production line at the Fremont plant in mid-July. The company filed several applications on the City’s Public Access website, which detailed planned advancements of “General Assembly 4.5,” which is designated for Tesla’s newest vehicle’s manufacturing processes.
Additionally, the installation of two die-cast machines allowed for the Model Y’s single-piece casting design, which increased safety and manufacturing efficiency.
Tesla readies Model Y Giga Press for next-level production efficiency
But the global push toward electrification for Tesla goes far beyond Northern California. In China, the company’s Giga Shanghai facility has a production capacity of 250,000 Model 3 units a year. The company detailed its advancements at the plant in the Q3 Update Letter:
“Model 3 production capacity has increased to 250,000 units a year. We reduced the price of Model 3 to 249,900 RMB after incentives, making it the lowest-price premium mid-sized sedan in China. This was enabled both by lower-cost batteries and an increased level of local procurement. As a result of this shift in cost and starting price, we recently added a third production shift to our Model 3 factory. “
Currently, the Model 3 is the only Tesla vehicle produced at the facility. However, the company plans to begin building the Model Y at Giga Shanghai by the end of 2020.
With Fremont and Shanghai producing 590,000 and 250,000 vehicles annually, Tesla is on track to reach a manufacturing rate of 1 million vehicles per year. It is possible that with Giga Shanghai’s introduction of the Model Y, the two plants could reach the million vehicle threshold together. However, Tesla has plans for two other factories that will contribute to an ever-growing annual production rate.
In Germany, Giga Berlin is quickly taking shape, and Tesla plans to begin production at this facility in 2021. The company also detailed the progress at its first European plant by saying:
“Construction of the Gigafactory in Berlin continues to progress rapidly. Buildings are under construction, and equipment move-in will start over the coming weeks. At the same time, the Giga Berlin team continues to grow. Production is expected to start in 2021.”
Finally, Tesla is also working on building another U.S.-based plant in Austin, Texas, which will introduce the Cybertruck and Semi, and also produce the Model 3 and Model Y for East Coast customers.
Tesla reported its fifth-consecutive profitable quarter, announcing revenue of $8.771 billion for the quarter, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.76. Additionally, Tesla posted $809M GAAP operating income, resulting in a 9.2% operating margin. The company also ended the third quarter with $331M GAAP net income and $874M non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC).
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
