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Tesla Q4 delivery numbers on deck as the company pushes to meet annual guidance

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After a somewhat slow start that resulted in adjusted guidance during the first half of this year, Tesla Motors knocked out a record-setting third quarter with vehicle deliveries up 114% over the same quarter in 2015 and 72% over Q2. The company also managed to bring in a profit in the third quarter for the first time since 2014. All that good news has translated into high expectations for the final quarter of the year.

Tesla started off the year with plans to deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 cars in 2016. Because of a slower than expected ramp up in Model X production in the first half of the year, the company lowered its overall guidance at the end of Q3 to 79,000 cars. To get there, the company needs to deliver 25,000 vehicles or more this quarter. Will Tesla hit its mark?

Tesla quarterly vehicles deliveries based on SEC filings. [Source: Daniel Sparks via Motley Fool]

Tesla quarterly vehicles deliveries based on SEC filings. [Source: Daniel Sparks via The Motley Fool]

It depends on sales of the Model S says financial analyst Daniel Sparks of The Motley Fool. Tesla has several incentives for buyers this quarter including the $1,000 discount via a continuation of its referral program and free unlimited Supercharger access for buyers that place an order on a new Model S or Model X by the end of the year. Vehicles purchased in 2017 will be entitled to 400 kWh of free electricity a year — enough for about 1,000 miles of driving. After that, drivers will pay a small fee designed to cover the cost of electricity used.

Whether deliveries this quarter will come from new customers for the Model S or from filling existing orders for the Model X remains to be seen. Tesla refuses to reveal monthly sales data, so predictions about quarterly deliveries are little more than educated guesses. The company does make it a practice to release delivery data within 3 days after the end of a quarter, so we should have the official information by Tuesday of next week.

How many deliveries Tesla makes for the year will have an impact on investor confidence in the company going forward. We are now less than a year away from the start of production for the Model 3 midsize sedan, the car that's anticipated to see roughly 400,000 vehicle sales a year by 2018.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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Tesla stock gets another analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like it

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company.”

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Credit: CNBC Television/YouTube

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got its latest analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like what he has to say.

Cramer has flip-flopped his thoughts on Tesla shares many times over the years. One time, he said CEO Elon Musk was a genius; the next, he said Ford stock was a better play. He’s always changing his tune.

However, Cramer’s most recent analysis is of a bullish tone, as he talks about the company’s evolution from an automaker to a tech powerhouse. He made the comments on CNBC’s Mad Money:

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company. You wanna be in there because the tech is worth a lot more than what it’s selling for right now. Don’t care where you bought it, care where it’s going to.”

Tesla has always been looked at by the mainstream media as an automaker. While that is its main business currently, Tesla has always had other divisions: Energy, Solar, Charging, AI, and Robotics. Some came after others, but the important point is that Tesla has not been an automaker exclusively for a decade.

It launched Powerwall and Powerpack in April 2015, marking the start of Tesla Energy.

But Cramer has a point here: Tesla is truly becoming much more than a car company, and it is turning into an AI and overall tech company more than ever before. Eventually, it will be recognized as such, more so than it will be as an automotive company.

Cramer’s comments also follow a recent prediction by Musk, who stated on X that he believes a $150,000 investment in Tesla shares right now would eventually turn someone into a millionaire:

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Musk has said he believes Tesla could be headed to a serious increase in valuation. Eventually, it could become the most valuable company in the world. He said this during the Q2 Earnings Call:

“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

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