Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers on deck as the company pushes to meet annual guidance

After a somewhat slow start that resulted in adjusted guidance during the first half of this year, Tesla Motors knocked out a record-setting third quarter with vehicle deliveries up 114% over the same quarter in 2015 and 72% over Q2. The company also managed to bring in a profit in the third quarter for the first time since 2014. All that good news has translated into high expectations for the final quarter of the year.
Tesla started off the year with plans to deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 cars in 2016. Because of a slower than expected ramp up in Model X production in the first half of the year, the company lowered its overall guidance at the end of Q3 to 79,000 cars. To get there, the company needs to deliver 25,000 vehicles or more this quarter. Will Tesla hit its mark?
![Tesla quarterly vehicles deliveries based on SEC filings. [Source: Daniel Sparks via Motley Fool]](http://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Tesla-yearly-vehicle-deliveries.png)
Tesla quarterly vehicles deliveries based on SEC filings. [Source: Daniel Sparks via The Motley Fool]
It depends on sales of the Model S says financial analyst Daniel Sparks of The Motley Fool. Tesla has several incentives for buyers this quarter including the $1,000 discount via a continuation of its referral program and free unlimited Supercharger access for buyers that place an order on a new Model S or Model X by the end of the year. Vehicles purchased in 2017 will be entitled to 400 kWh of free electricity a year — enough for about 1,000 miles of driving. After that, drivers will pay a small fee designed to cover the cost of electricity used.
Whether deliveries this quarter will come from new customers for the Model S or from filling existing orders for the Model X remains to be seen. Tesla refuses to reveal monthly sales data, so predictions about quarterly deliveries are little more than educated guesses. The company does make it a practice to release delivery data within 3 days after the end of a quarter, so we should have the official information by Tuesday of next week.
How many deliveries Tesla makes for the year will have an impact on investor confidence in the company going forward. We are now less than a year away from the start of production for the Model 3 midsize sedan, the car that's anticipated to see roughly 400,000 vehicle sales a year by 2018.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days.
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark’s estimates
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.
“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.
Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.
Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds
Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.
“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk slams ING Deutschland for denying TSLA shareholders ability to vote
Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X.

Elon Musk has slammed ING Deutschland after the bank confirmed that it was not offering a way for clients to vote in the upcoming 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting.
Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X.
Musk’s criticism
Musk’s criticism of ING Deutschland came as a response to the bank’s comment to a Tesla shareholder. The shareholder, Maximilian Auer, noted that he has not received a response from the German bank’s customer support on how he could vote with his TSLA shares. In response to the Auer’s comment, ING Deutschland confirmed that it does not offer such a service.
“We do not offer the proxy voting process or the transmission of a control number. There is no legal obligation to do so for general meetings under foreign law,” ING Deutschland wrote in its post.
The firm’s reply received a lot of criticism from users on X, with many stating that such comments could drive clients away. Elon Musk later weighed in with some strong words of his own, stating that the bank is effectively denying shareholders the ability to vote. “Denying shareholders the ability to vote, as you are doing, certainly should be a crime,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Tesla’s annual meeting
Tesla’s upcoming annual meeting this year is particularly important as shareholders are voting on the approval of Elon Musk’s new CEO performance award. The pay package, which could pave the way for Musk to become a trillionaire, is also designed to increase his stake in the electric vehicle maker to 25%. This, Musk stated, should prevent activist shareholder advisory firms to disrupt the company.
Tesla highlighted the importance of this year’s annual meeting in a post on X.
“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.
“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X.
Investor's Corner
Tesla price target raised to $490 at Canaccord on strong deliveries, energy growth
The revised target implies about 10% upside from Tesla’s last close at $443.21.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a significant boost from Canaccord Genuity this week, with analysts lifting their price target to $490 from $333 and reiterating a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.
The revised target implies about 10% upside from Tesla’s last close at $443.21.
New vehicle launches
Canaccord’s research across roughly 30 countries pointed to higher delivery volumes than anticipated, breaking the slowdown from earlier this year, as noted in an Investing.com report. Analysts noted that Tesla’s upcoming vehicle launches are expected to sustain sales momentum globally, even as U.S. tax credits phase out after the third quarter. The firm stated that new models will play a central role in broadening the company’s appeal across multiple markets and customer segments.
“On the EV side, we expect more new models soon – as promised by management. These should help global sales momentum – and potentially help alleviate any post-3Q cliff in the U.S. after EV tax credits go away. And these new vehicles should be interesting,” analyst George Gianarikas noted.
The analysts also highlighted Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving. Earlier this month, the company secured approval from Arizona regulators to begin road testing its robotaxi program in the Phoenix metro area. The pilot program includes vehicles equipped with safety drivers, positioning Tesla to advance its ride-hailing ambitions while gathering critical real-world data.
Expanding energy storage demand
In addition to vehicle growth, Canaccord emphasized Tesla’s rapidly expanding energy storage business as a major contributor to future earnings. With utilities and hyperscale data centers increasing adoption of battery storage, Tesla is positioned to benefit from rising demand for grid stability and on-site power solutions. Elon Musk’s xAI has already tapped Tesla energy for its facilities, highlighting broader use cases for Tesla’s energy business.
“In energy storage, we expect an improvement in momentum. We, the world, need more power, and we need more storage for both utilities and data centers. Hyperscaler data centers are looking for power that is not fully tied to the grid: “behind the meter” or distributed generation solutions that supply power directly to an onsite property but are still typically connected to the main utility grid,” the analyst noted.
The analysts also pointed to Musk’s new compensation package, which ties ambitious performance milestones directly to long-term shareholder returns. They view his ongoing leadership and alignment with investor outcomes as key positives, while acknowledging environmental risks tied to large-scale energy projects.
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