Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q2 2018 production numbers: 28,578 total Model 3, 5,031 in one week
During the final week of the second quarter, Tesla managed to produce 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S & X. Tesla’s Q2 2018 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from the first quarter, making it the most productive quarter in the company’s history so far. Model 3 production, which reached a total of 28,578 units, also exceeded the combined Model S and X production of 24,761 vehicles during Q2 2018.
Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. As noted by Tesla, both orders and deliveries for the flagship luxury sedan and SUV were higher in Q2 than a year ago. Tesla also expects its overall target for 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries in 2018 to be unchanged.
1 team pic.twitter.com/2SB8H6stjT
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 2, 2018
Tesla managed to produce almost three times the number of Model 3 in Q2 than it did in Q1 2018. According to the company’s vehicle production and deliveries report, the GA3 line within the Fremont factory is expected to have the capability to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week on its own. Augmented with GA4, the Model 3’s newest assembly line set up in the massive sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory, however, Tesla noted that it was able to hit its production target for the compact electric car faster.
With the 5,000/week mark attained, Tesla is now looking to increase its production capacity for the Model 3 even further. According to the company, it expects to increase its manufacturing rate to 6,000 Model 3 per week by late next month. Tesla also reaffirms its guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in the upcoming third and fourth quarter, regardless of external challenges such as a weakening dollar and higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China.
As of the end of Q2 2018, Tesla had 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and Model X in transit to customers, with deliveries expected to be scheduled sometime early in the third quarter. According to Tesla, the high number of vehicles in transit was primarily due to an increase in production during the end of Q2 2018. Remaining net Model 3 reservations as of the end of Q2 stood at roughly 420,000, despite Tesla having delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. Tesla expects more orders for the compact electric car to ramp once more as test drives for the Model 3 start getting offered in galleries in the near future.
Tesla’s most recent milestone comes as a huge victory for the electric car maker. Over the past year, Tesla struggled to ramp up the production of the compact electric sedan, with CEO Elon Musk dubbing the endeavor as “production hell.” During the second quarter, however, Tesla dug deep in order to overcome its production challenges, with the company resorting to unorthodox solutions, such as air-freighting robots from Europe and setting up a new assembly line in a sprung structure, in order to improve its chances of attaining its Q2 0218 production goals. As noted by the company in its recent report, however, the hardship over the past 12 months has been well worth it.
“The last 12 months were some of the most difficult in Tesla’s history, and we are incredibly proud of the whole Tesla team for achieving the 5,000 unit Model 3 production rate. It was not easy, but it was definitely worth it.”
Tesla’s delivery numbers, particularly its 5,000 Model 3 per week milestone, has been received warmly by the company’s investors. As of writing, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is trading up 5.30% at $361.16 per share.
Tesla’s production and delivery report for Q2 2018 can be accessed here.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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