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Tesla registers over 10,000 new Model 3 VINs as Dual Motor production ramp continues

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Tesla has registered two large batches totaling more than 10,000 new Model 3 VINs over the weekend, in what appears to be a sign of a renewed production push for the electric sedan. Both batches, the first being 2,625 registrations and the other being 7,903, are estimated to be comprised of dual motor AWD vehicles.

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With the addition of this weekend’s 10,528 new Model 3 filings, Tesla has now registered a total of 89,107 vehicles since the electric car started production last year. These latest filings are among Tesla’s most significant yet, considering that the company’s VIN registrations only went past the 10,000-mark near the end of January, roughly six months into the electric car’s production.

During Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla was able to maintain the Model 3’s 5,000/week production rate across multiple weeks in July. Musk’s statement about the Model 3’s production falls in line with the trend displayed by VIN registrations during the first two weeks of the month. Immediately after the beginning of Q3 2018, Tesla went on a VIN-filing spree, registering 19,000 new Model 3 VINs in the first half of July.

During the latter half of last month, however, Tesla’s VIN filings plateaued, with the company registering only a few vehicles at a time until this weekend. Quite interestingly, these last two big batches of VIN filings also corresponded to dual motor variants of the Model 3. Twitter watchdog group @Model3VINs initially estimated the first batch of 2,625 Model 3 VINs to include Long Range RWD variants of the electric car, but in the following update, the group noted that all the filings appeared to be dual motor.

Tesla has only started rolling out the dual motor AWD and Performance variants of the Model 3 recently. Nevertheless, Tesla worldwide head of sales Robin Ren stated during the second quarter earnings call that the dual motor AWD and Performance Model 3’s combined orders are now more than the orders for the vehicle’s Long Range RWD variant. The Tesla executive further noted that interest in the Model 3 remains high, with the company having 60,000 test drive requests for the electric sedan in the United States alone.

If Robin Ren’s statements and the recent Model 3 VIN filings are any indications, it appears that Tesla’s push to upsell the higher-end variants of the electric car to consumers is starting to pay off. Tesla, after all, stopped anti-selling the vehicle after the end of Q2 2018, offering test drives to customers and promoting the Model 3 Performance. In a Twitter post, Elon Musk also encouraged reservation holders to test drive the Model 3 Performance even if they do not have orders for the top-tier vehicle.

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With its 5,000/week target for the Model 3’s production being met, Tesla is now aiming to sustain and increase its manufacturing capability for the electric car. During his opening remarks in the Q2 2018 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla is aiming to produce 7,000 vehicles per week throughout Q3 2018. Musk also noted that Tesla is expecting its ramp to 10,000 Model 3 per week to involve only a “tiny fraction” of the CapEx used when it ramped the vehicle to 5,000 units per week.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla tailwinds could drive momentum-filled finish to 2025: analyst

Tesla is heading toward some momentum to finish out the year, one Wall Street firm believes.

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Credit: @heydave7/X

Tesla has some tailwinds that could drive it toward a momentum-filled finish to the year, one Wall Street analyst is predicting.

The tailwinds are joined by some minor risks that have impacted the broader electric vehicle market, but overall, this firm believes Tesla has many catalysts moving forward.

Emmanuel Rosner of Wolfe Research believes that Tesla has plenty of things that could drive the stock upward as we approach the end of the year. With Q3 well underway, Tesla has about five months of catalysts to rely on to erase the roughly 18 percent drop in stock price it has so far this year.

At first glance, it is easy to see the things that would have investors bullish on Tesla for the rest of 2025 and even beyond. Initially, the Robotaxi launch and expansion, which spread to Northern California last night, provide potentially huge tailwinds for the company moving forward.

Tesla expands Robotaxi operation to California’s Bay Area

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Along with that, and slightly related, are the advancements in Full Self-Driving that the company has made over the past few months.

This includes the potential launch of the FSD suite in regions like Europe and Australia, where the company believes it will make some progress on regulatory approval in the coming months.

Finally, Wolfe says the company’s Optimus project, which is expected to enter scale production sometime next year, is the third catalyst for Tesla moving forward.

With these three projects in motion, Tesla truly can begin to work on rebounding from a rough 2025 on the market.

Rosner writes:

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“This name trades more around the narrative than the numbers. And net-net, we tactically see an improving narrative from here. Tesla has several catalysts coming up w/r/t FSD and Robotaxi, including an expansion of their AV service into several new U.S. markets (San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.). The company plans to unlock hands-free/eyes-off autonomy for FSD owners in select U.S. locations by YE25. Supervised FSD in China and Europe is expected to launch over the next ~12 months. And, Optimus is expected to enter scale production in 2026.”

Tesla is currently trading around $310 at around 3:20 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla Robotaxi execution should lead to valuation ‘far exceeding current levels’: analyst

RBC Capital bumped its price target on Tesla stock slightly from $319 to $325.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla’s Robotaxi platform is the primary focus for the automaker currently, and based on what has been outlined by the company as goals for the project, one firm is saying that the company’s valuation should “far exceed even current levels.”

The Robotaxi is a self-driving ride-hailing service that Tesla plans to implement in current and future vehicle builds. CEO Elon Musk and other executives have said that “the vast majority of the Tesla fleet that we’ve made is capable of being a Robotaxi,” thanks to its development of Over-the-Air software updates that increase the capability of the vehicle with a simple download.

Currently, the Robotaxi platform is only active in a portion of Austin, Texas, but Tesla is expanding to other markets, including California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. California will be the next market to open its doors to the Tesla Robotaxi platform.

But the name of the game is execution, and that’s what Tesla is aiming for in a timely fashion. If it can come through on all of its current goals, its valuation could explode, and one firm is holding steady on that narrative as Tesla continues to work toward expanding Robotaxi.

On Tuesday, RBC Capital analysts bumped their price target on Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $325 from $319, primarily due to the Robotaxi expansion and its success:

“Should Tesla be successful on all of its goals, its valuation could far exceed even current levels. The Austin Robotaxi launch has been better than many feared, and the company is looking to expand in more cities.”

There are some risks to Tesla’s narrative, but they fall outside the scope of what the company can control. In relation to Robotaxi, regulatory hurdles remain. Some regions may be slower than others to give Tesla the proper licensing to operate in their jurisdiction. This could slow the pace of Robotaxi expansion, bringing some overhang to the story.

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Additionally, Tesla is fending off narratives of slowing demand, and the White House’s decision to revoke the $7,500 EV tax credit from consumers could temper sales past Q3.

Nevertheless, Robotaxi is where Tesla’s true value seems to be focused. Successfully launching a driverless ride-sharing platform is where the company is putting all of its eggs, and revolutionizing passenger travel is where the focus lies.

RBC Capital’s note continued:

“Regulatory hurdles remain, however. Further, we expect the end of IRA credits and high levels of used EV inventory to pressure the auto business for the next several quarters.”

The slight price target bump puts RBC Capital’s expectations near where the stock is trading, as it is currently priced at around $320 at 9:54 a.m. on the East Coast.

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Elon Musk shares details on Tesla AI6 production deal with Samsung

Tesla is already laying the groundwork for the ramp of its next-generation products.

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tesla-supercomputer-pre-dojo
Credit: Tim Zaman/Twitter

Elon Musk has provided some details about Tesla’s AI6 production deal with South Korean tech giant Samsung. As per Musk, Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility will be dedicated to the production of Tesla’s AI6 chip.

Musk’s update suggests that Tesla is already laying the groundwork for the ramp of its next-generation products like the Cybercab and Optimus.

Samsung AI6 production reports

On Sunday, Bloomberg News claimed that Samsung will be producing semiconductors for Tesla in a $16.5 billion deal. As per the report, Samsung is currently producing Tesla’s AI4 chip, and the deal will help the South Korean tech giant gain some ground back from competitors in the semiconductor market.

Elon Musk confirmed the news on X, stating that the $16.5 billion is actually just the bare minimum. As per Musk, the deal with Samsung will likely be “much more than that.” And in a later comment, Musk clarified that the actual output of Samsung’s Tesla AI6 plant will “likely be several times higher” than what has been reported.

Musk shared a critical detail that would likely allow Samsung to maximize its AI6 output. “Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency. This is a critical point, as I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress. And the fab is conveniently located not far from my house,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Elon Musk on AI5 and AI6

Tesla currently produces vehicles with its AI4 chip, which is produced by Samsung. As per the CEO, Tesla’s AI5 chip, which just finished its design, will be produced by TSMC. The AI5 chip will be produced initially in Taiwan, and then in Arizona, the CEO noted.

Elon Musk’s comments about AI6 and Samsung’s output suggest that Tesla is really preparing to enter a stage in its growth that involves production at a scale that’s never been seen before. Tesla’s speed is quite notable, though it seems safe to assume that the actual rollout of AI6 will still be a few years away. 

In a few years, Tesla will probably be mass producing the Cybercab and Optimus, as well as more affordable vehicles that will likely see more adoption from mainstream customers. This means that Samsung’s AI6 ramp will likely be just in time to support Tesla’s outputs for its Optimus bots, its Cybercabs, and its mass market affordable cars.

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