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Tesla Model 3 VINs surpass 42k total registrations to date

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Just days after registering more than 5,000 new Model 3 VINs, Tesla filed another 3,661 vehicle identification numbers for its compact electric car. With the addition of this latest batch, Tesla has now registered a total of 42,942 VINs for the Model 3.

The new Model 3 VINs were posted on Twitter by @Model3VINs, a group that tracks Tesla’s registrations for the electric car. A month ago, the highest VIN registered by Tesla was #28296, despite the vehicle already being in production for months. Since then, the number of VINs have increased by more than 50%.

This week alone, Tesla registered more than 8,000 new Model 3 VINs, a feat that took Tesla months to accomplish since starting production of the electric car last year. Looking at past VIN tracker reports, Tesla was only able to breach the VIN#8,000 barrier late December, despite the vehicle starting production in mid-2017.

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During Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk stated that the company had become a “leaky server of information.” Musk even noted that any information on the Model 3 line that he mentions in the call would likely become public knowledge after a few weeks, considering that shipments and registrations for the car are being carefully tracked and monitored.

“People track registrations very closely. So at most, any information that we provide would be 1 week or 2 in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully,” Musk said.

Tesla’s more than 8,000 new Model 3 VINs that were filed this week seems to be in line with the estimates outlined in a leaked email from Elon Musk last month. In that particular email, Musk stated that the scheduled shutdown of the Model 3 line last April is expected to pave the way for the company to hit a production rate of 3,000-4,000 Model 3 per week.

Another shutdown is expected this May, which would, in turn, enable the Model 3 line to boost production to 5,000-6,000 vehicles per week. Once Tesla hits a steady production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week, the company would start rolling out new variants of the vehicle, such as dual-motor AWD. 

Elon Musk has boldly declared that Tesla would be profitable by the third or fourth quarter this year. In order for the electric car maker to accomplish this, the Model 3 line must be working at optimum pace. Musk highlighted this during the Q1 2018 earnings call, when he stated that time is right for Tesla to start making a profit.

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Musk doubled down on his statements on Twitter as well, stating that the “short burn of the century” would be coming soon. Emphasizing his point, Musk also bought nearly $10 million worth of TSLA shares, taking the battle directly to the company’s critics.

As of writing, Tesla stocks (NASDAQ:TSLA) are trading down .01% at $305.00 per share during Friday’s pre-market.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Investor's Corner

Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love

Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.

This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.

Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas

The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.

The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.

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Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:

“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”

Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.

Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.

Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.

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Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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Investor's Corner

Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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