Investor's Corner
Tesla is addressing its repair service challenges by doubling capacity in 2019
As Tesla heads towards the mass market with vehicles like the Model 3 sedan and the upcoming Model Y SUV, the challenges of supporting an ever-growing fleet is becoming more and more evident. Over the past month, numerous Tesla owners, including influencers with large followings on social media, have brought up the issue of the company’s vehicle service problems. In its recent Update Letter and following earnings call, the electric car maker provided some insights into this issue.
Tesla stated that it is currently operating 378 service centers around the world by the end of the fourth quarter, with 300 of the sites being located outside of CA. Augmenting this support system is a fleet of 411 mobile service vehicles. While this might seem sufficient to provide service to the company’s Model S and Model X, these sites are quickly proving insufficient when faced with the company’s increasing sales and its ever-growing Model 3 fleet.
In 2018, for example, Tesla delivered 245,240 vehicles across the globe. This year, Tesla noted in its shareholder letter that it aims to increase vehicle deliveries to 360,000 to 400,000 worldwide — an increase of 45% to 65% compared to 2018’s already record-breaking numbers. With this in mind, there is a need for Tesla to ensure that its service capabilities are enough to support the company’s increasing number of vehicles.
During the recently held earnings call, Tesla noted that it would be rolling out vast improvements for its parts distribution systems. Elon Musk added that Tesla’s strategies for servicing vehicles have been pretty inadequate, at one point candidly describing the policies as “boneheaded.” Musk also noted that some of its service processes were “super dumb,” referring to a system where a part made in China gets shipped to the US, only to be sent back to China where they were ordered.
“We’re also improving parts distribution. I think we made a strategic error in the past about not having service parts located at our distribution centers. We had them in parts distribution warehouses which basically meant it was impossible to have a fast turnaround on service on your car because the car would come in, then the parts would be requested (before) they come to the service center. Basically, for even for a very simple repair, it could take days.
“We’re going to move to stocking all common parts at the service centers, so it’s possible to get your car service in 20 or possibly 15 minutes. Lightning fast. It’s also gonna make sense for our service centers to do basic bodywork or essentially if all you need to do is replace a front or rear feature, it makes sense to pre-stock the front-rear feature in the common colors. So unless you have (an) unusual color, we can literally replace your feature in 15-20 minutes, and there’s none of this like weeks at a body shop stuff.”
One thing that the company emphasized in the earnings call was the potential of its Tesla Rangers service, which sends certified mechanics to customers’ homes or offices to repair cars on the spot. Considering that the Rangers could address around 80% of repairs needed for Tesla’s electric cars, a serious ramp of the mobile service would likely result in an improvement for the company’s vehicle service systems.
In its Q4 2018 Update Letter, the company noted that its centers would be moving to two-shift operations in order to double the capacity of a site. Improvements to the Tesla app are also expected to make scheduling service an easy and seamless affair. Ultimately, these initiatives are expected to allow the electric car maker to vastly improve its capabilities to address its owners’ vehicle concerns.
Tesla’s areas for improvement in its service systems appear to be a notable topic for Elon Musk. In last year’s Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk announced that Tesla is opening in-house body shops to reduce the time it takes for vehicles to be repaired. Tesla eventually launched several in-house repair centers across the United States, and the reception from the community has largely been positive. Model 3 owner and YouTube influencer Kim of Like Tesla, for one, shared her experience with one of the company’s in-house body shops, which was able to complete the repairs to her damaged vehicle in 24 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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