Investor's Corner
BMW CEO reportedly risks replacement amid poor sales, weak EV strategy, and the rise of Tesla’s Model 3
BMW CEO Harald Krüger has always preferred to work in the background. Content to leave the stage for others, Krüger has mostly led BMW in an almost understated manner. Yet, in a recent meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and fellow executives from rivals Volkswagen and Daimler, the CEO proved assertive, announcing that BMW will be looking to sell around 300,000 electric and electrified vehicles annually by 2021.
Krüger’s assertive stance on EVs is likely due to pressures that BMW is feeling in the electric vehicle market, which has, in more ways than one, started affecting the security of the CEO’s post. The 53-year-old BMW executive’s contract expires in May 2020, and theoretically, the company’s Supervisory Board could extend it. Unfortunately, reports are now emerging that Krüger’s contract as BMW’s chief executive might not be extended anymore, according to information gathered by German news agency Handelsblatt.
Amidst BMW’s current challenges, the publication alleges that the automaker no longer considers an extension of Krüger’s CEO contract as the most plausible scenario in the near future. Talks of tensions in BMW’s leadership have emerged, and an insider has even noted that there is “high pressure in the boiler.” If Krüger is not able to keep his CEO post, two board members are reportedly set to take over his seat: the ambitious Head of Development Klaus Fröhlich and the more tempered Oliver Zipse, who took over BMW’s production department from Krüger back in 2015.
BMW is currently facing a number of challenges. The company has initiated a group-wide “hiring freeze,” and the CEO’s critics were quick to point out that despite BMW’s “biggest model offensive in the company’s history,” sales have stagnated. Over the past nine months, the German automaker surprised with two profit warnings, and margins for its vehicles are under pressure. Krüger, for his part, remained cautiously optimistic, stating that “In the second half of the year, we expect a tailwind” amid the upcoming release of large vehicles like the BMW X7 SUV.
Hiring freezes and poor sales aside, one thing that has notably irked the German automaker’s shareholders is its poor electric vehicle strategy. In 2013, Krüger’s predecessor, Norbert Reithofer, launched the BMW i3, a curiously futuristic electric car that was compared to the Tesla Model S. BMW has not released a pure battery-electric vehicle since then. Jaguar has started its push with the I-PACE, Audi has released the e-tron, and Mercedes-Benz has already unveiled the EQC. BMW’s iX3, on the other hand, won’t be ready for at least another year. Speaking to the publication, a competitor noted that “BMW was ahead, now they are suspended.”
-->The emergence of Tesla as a player in the premium sedan market has also become a painful pill to swallow for BMW. With its international rollout, the Tesla Model 3 continued to hack away at the sales of BMW’s iconic 3-Series sedan. Tests from publications such as Top Gear, which have been traditionally pro-petrol in the past, have also recognized the Silicon Valley-made Model 3 as superior in more ways than one to a BMW. Tesla’s rise has not escaped the attention of BMW’s investors, who appear to be getting quite impatient with the German automaker’s delayed, if not half-hearted EV strategy.
These sentiments were expressed during BMW’s annual shareholder meeting in May. Addressing the company, shareholder protector Daniela Bergdolt did not mince words. “I now expect an electric offensive that sweeps Tesla off the table,” she said, and the company did not really have a strong response. There’s the i4 and the iNext, but both vehicles don’t currently have a concrete release date. The impressive BMW Vision M Next, which was recently revealed, is also an eye-catching concept vehicle, but it still remains to be seen if or when the car will enter production.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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