Investor's Corner
Tesla stock (TSLA) one week after Q2 2016 Report
Post Q2 Report Action
As we previously reported, the Q2 quarterly results were “mixed”:
- Revenue matched expectation, a positive for Wall Street;
- Earning losses were higher than anticipated, a negative, but for a company like Tesla, where the stock price is based on future expectations, the earning numbers are really not what counts;
- Slightly increasing gross margins, a positive;
- Practically zero ZEV credits for the quarter, a negative;
- Production and demand on track to support 50,000 deliveries in 2H 2016, a positive;
- Lower production numbers than previously anticipated, a negative.
When you have such a mix of positives and negatives, it is fairly normal for traders to have a “subdued” response, unlike the usually wild responses to results that are big misses or big beats on expectations.
Accordingly, this time around the technical response of the stock market to last week’s Tesla Q2 2016 report has been “muted.” The stock has been in “compression” (a horizontal back and forth) since the report, staying in the $225-$230 range, but overall 12-month Analyst Price Targets have actually decreased with the average dropping from $277 to $244.
Looking at more details of the reactions to the report, this is a small sample from Top Analysts, noting that none of them changed their position.
Alexander Potter of Piper Jaffray says “Teslas untouchable brand helps investors look past million-dollar losses.”
“It’s hard to recommend a cash-burning company with such an uncertain outlook,” said Potter, who reiterated a neutral rating and $223 price target on the stock. But consumers and investors still seem captivated by Tesla’s products, said Potter. And as long as the company “retains this aura,” its stock multiple will “probably stay buoyant,” he said.
Brad Erickson of Pacific Crest says “The risks still outweigh the rewards.”
“Brad rattled off a number of challenges Tesla still needs to tackle in a note to clients. But he reiterated a sector weight rating on the stock, said Tesla’s cash burn wasn’t as bad as expected during the quarter, and maintained the belief that the company’s longer-term vision is “second to none.”
Ben Kallo of Robert W. Baird says “Focus [is] on Tesla (TSLA) Production Ramp and Long Term Goals, Not Q2 Miss.”
Kallo commented, “Q2 revenue was in line with our estimate, but TSLA missed on EPS with higher-than-expected OPEX. Additionally, gross margin missed consensus estimates and was pressured during the quarter with the Model S refresh and X ramp, but automotive gross margin improved sequentially, which was better than we expected. Importantly, TSLA reaffirmed its 2H:16 delivery target of ~50k vehicles, expects margins to ramp in 2H:16 given higher manufacturing efficiency, and the Model 3 remains on track for 2H:17 production.”
Kallo also covers SolarCity (SCTY) and he commented that “Although SCTY has a 45-day go-shop period which could provide additional upside, we believe it is highly likely the TSLA and SCTY merger will go through, and we are moving to the sidelines.”
Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer “noted that Tesla appears to be taking on increasing responsibility when it comes to technology development.”
“Rusch wasn’t surprised by Tesla’s quarter, and the firm remains on the sidelines until Tesla can show some progress toward profitability. It also appears to have taken a hard line with suppliers on timelines, pricing and allocation of resources,” he explained. “While we see potential benefits, we note increasing risk on supplier pushback.”
Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan noted that “JPMorgan cuts Tesla estimates on higher operating expenses.”
“To reflect lower revenue and higher operating expenses following the company’s Q2 results, Brinkman cut his 2016 earnings per share estimate for Tesla to (32c) from $1.60. The analyst notes his 2016 earnings estimate was $4.62 a year ago and $2.74 at the start of this year. This reflects the “degree of consistent ratcheting down of near-term earnings,” Brinkman tells investors in a post-earnings research note. The analyst keeps an Underweight rating on Tesla with a $180 price target.”
Shelby Seyrafi of FBN Securities “reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), with a price target of $275.”
Seyrafi is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 0.5% and a 51.5% success rate. Seyrafi covers the Technology sector, focusing on stocks such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Dot Hill Systems Corp., and Concur Technologies.
Colin Langan of UBS, says “Tesla, SolarCity synergies still cloudy.”
“Colin noted Tesla announced details of its agreement to acquire SolarCity (SCTY) and provided synergy targets with the deal. UBS said they remain cautious on the deal given the lack of compelling synergies and the fact the deal is an unneeded distraction for Tesla management, which already faces challenges with its Model 3 launch and production targets. UBS maintained its Sell rating and $160 price target on Tesla shares.”
The overall consensus of analysts covering Tesl Motors, reported at tipranks.com, is neutral (hold).

Source: TipRanks
Trade Analysis
Quarterly Reports are usually the catalyst that start or stop actions for swing traders. The Q2 report was no different. I called for a bullish swing trade when the MACD crossed to the bulls on July 1st. The trade closed on August 4th when the MACD crossed to the bears, the day after the Q2 report was released. This was a good trade that gained over $14 in about a month period to traders that went long on the stock (see the shaded band in the chart below). For option traders this was a “fabulous” trade.
A week after the report the market is undecided on what to do with TSLA in the short term. All indicators are “neutral”: the stock has gone sideways for a week; the MACD averages are flat and overlapping; the MACD itself is at zero; both the 50-day moving average (the red line in the chart below) and the 200-day moving average (the yellow line in the chart below) are flat. All of these indicators are showing the absence of a trend. Trading in these conditions is not advisable and fairly risky. I’m personally out of trading TSLA until a trend appears.

Source: Wall Street I/O
Elon Musk
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package
Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.
Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting.
Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.
Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk
In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years.
“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award.
Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.
Musk’s support
While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders.
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.
Elon Musk
Tesla Robotaxi and autonomy dreams lean on shareholders: Wedbush
Tesla’s dreams of developing a Robotaxi suite that utilizes a fully autonomous platform developed by the company’s top-tier talent now lean on shareholders and perhaps the most crucial vote in its history.
That’s what Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a new note to investors on Wednesday. As the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is now just one day away, investors are down to their final chance to vote for or against Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.
Ives wrote that, while the company has made its intentions clear, wanting to maintain Musk, pay him accordingly, and give him the voting power he has long wanted, ultimately, the responsibility falls on investors.
🚨 A new note from Wedbush’s Dan Ives on Tesla $TSLA:
“A Big Day On Deck Tomorrow for Musk and Tesla; We Expect Pay Package Passes
Tomorrow Tesla will be hosting its annual shareholder meeting with all focus on the Musk pay package on deck. We expect Musk to get overwhelming…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 5, 2025
As many retail shareholders have pushed for people to vote for Musk’s compensation package, there are a handful of large-scale funds and firms that have decided to go in another direction. Bullish Wall Street firms, Wedbush being one of them, believe it is crucial for Tesla to maintain Musk.
The vote could have major implications on whether Tesla launches an autonomous Robotaxi suite in the near future, Ives says:
“Getting Musk’s pay package approved tomorrow at the highly anticipated meeting will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals with the autonomous and Robotaxi roadmap ahead.”
While some investors are convinced the company is ready to go in a different direction simply based on Musk’s political involvement over the past year, many investors are under the impression that the development of Tesla’s autonomy suite, as well as its prowess in the EV sector, would fall if Elon were not at the helm.
Tesla’s Board of Directors has already stated that they have received confirmation that Musk’s political involvement would wind down in a timely manner. Moving forward, his focus will not veer from the mission of any of his companies; at least that’s what can be gathered from some of the Board’s communications over the past month.
Musk’s new compensation package is incentivized by performance metrics and will require him to achieve a handful of lofty tranches. He will not get paid unless he drives shareholder value, which is something many skeptics tend to leave out.
Ives continues:
“This new incentive-driven pay package for Musk would also provide an additional 423 million shares of common stock (~12% of shares), which would increase his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power, which we believe was critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history. We believe this was the smart move by the Board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk…and with the AI Revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and center.”
Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $600 price target on shares.
Elon Musk
UPDATE: Tesla investors push Charles Schwab for Musk comp plan clarification
Update: 4:00 p.m. EDT – Charles Schwab has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement, clarifying that it plans to vote FOR Musk’s compensation package:
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
There have also been updates to the headline and various paragraphs to reflect this as well as accuracy.
Tesla investors are pushing Charles Schwab for clarification after it was expected to vote against CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.
Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.
The Tesla community appeared to see that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.
Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:
Hey @CharlesSchwab – I need to speak with someone from Schwab Private Wealth Services this week. Please reach out via email, the mobile app message center, phone, or X DM.
Here’s why this is urgent: At least 6 of your ETF funds (around 7 million $TSLA shares) voted against… https://t.co/uSgPWnfTFc— Jason DeBolt ⚡️ (@jasondebolt) November 3, 2025
If @CharlesSchwab doesn’t vote for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award plan, I’ll move all my assets to another brokerage. My followers, many of whom also hold assets with Schwab and collectively own at least hundreds of millions in $TSLA, may do the same.
I can’t in good… https://t.co/6iUU6PdzYx— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) November 3, 2025
ready to help with the @CharlesSchwab exodus
— Gali (@Gfilche) November 3, 2025
At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs were expected to vote against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.
Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:
“As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.
It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.
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