Investor's Corner

Tesla’s 1.8-million vehicle target for 2023 is a sign of a more mature automaker (Opinion)

Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

Published

2 years ago

January 26, 2023

Simon Alvarez

It’s no secret that Tesla has a very big tendency to shoot for extremely ambitious targets. Elon Musk is certainly guilty of this, as he tends to announce extremely aggressive timetables and goals that eventually become delayed. But in Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2022 earnings call, the company did something different — it noted that it was aiming for 1.8 million vehicles for 2023.

While a ramp to 1.8 million vehicles is a 37% improvement in volume over the company’s results in 2022 — when Tesla produced 1.37 million cars — the estimate is notably conservative. Tesla, after all, typically goes for extreme targets such as a 50% growth year-over-year. This was the case in 2022, with Tesla aiming for a YoY growth of 50%. The company ended the year with 47% growth in production and 40% growth in deliveries, and both investors and analysts were disappointed.

Elon Musk explained Tesla’s rationale behind its conservative 1.8 million vehicle estimate during the Q4 and FY 2022 earnings call. The CEO noted that while Tesla’s internal production potential is closer to 2 million vehicles, the company is choosing to officially disclose 1.8 million vehicles to be on the safe side.

“Our internal production potential is actually closer to two million vehicles, but we are saying 1.8 million because — I don’t know, it just always seems to be some force majeure thing that happened somewhere on Earth, and we can’t control if there’s like earthquakes, tsunamis, wars, pandemics, etc. So, if it’s a smooth year, without some big supply chain interruption or massive problem, we actually have the potential to do 2 million cars this year. We’re not committing to that, but I’m just saying that’s the potential,” Musk said.

A few years ago — perhaps even a few quarters ago — such a statement from Musk would be completely out of character. Tesla has made a reputation for itself by being a company that makes the impossible feel late. But such strategies can only go so far, and as the business grows, such strategies may not work as well anymore.

The reasons behind Tesla’s strategy for its 2023 goals have not been disclosed by Elon Musk or other executives. That being said, one cannot help but agree that such a strategy is wise this year. Perhaps the near-Murphy’s Law incidents that happened to Tesla last year taught the company and its leadership a hard lesson, or perhaps Elon Musk has been made gravely aware that his tendency to be careless and brash can have real consequences for TSLA shareholders and supporters.

Either way, Tesla appears to have come out of 2022 as a far more mature company, and one that won’t hesitate to start a price war to protect its place in the market. That’s great news for Tesla supporters and shareholders, and probably bad news for the company’s competitors in the automotive market.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Investor's Corner

Tesla stock surges on Wednesday, but there’s still more room to go

Published

5 days ago

March 12, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over 7 percent on Wednesday, canceling out some of the losses it has felt this week.

It has been a less-than-ideal start for Tesla in 2025, as the company has wiped out all of its gains felt from the victorious election campaign of President Donald Trump. The stock is down 34 percent so far this year.

The losses have mostly been felt due to reports of decreased demand due to pushback against CEO Elon Musk and his support of President Trump, as well as investor concern over the CEO’s personal use of time between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Tesla itself.

In a note this week from Wedbush, analyst Dan Ives wrote:

“Musk needs to step up as Tesla CEO at this critical juncture. In a nutshell, the word ‘balance’ has been missing with Elon Musk and his ability to run Tesla as CEO….while instead focusing all of his energy and time driving his DOGE initiative within the Trump Administration. Since Trump’s White House 2nd term kicked off in January, we have seen Musk and Trump connected at the hip with Musk essentially living at the White House and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. There has been little to no sign of Musk at any Tesla factory or manufacturing facility the last two months and perception has become reality for Tesla shares. Trump getting elected President was a huge moment for Musk and Tesla in our view as this will create the fast track for an autonomous federal roadmap…however the DOGE efforts have now intertwined Tesla into this brewing political firestorm.”

Wednesday’s slight bump for Tesla shares is likely related to the support the company received from President Trump yesterday, who purchased a Model S sedan at the White House and pledged to pay for it with a check.

President Donald Trump buys a Tesla at the White House – Here’s which model he chose

The move was one that signaled a buying spree from high-profile Republicans, including Sean Hannity, among others, who announced their support for Musk and Tesla:

As promised yesterday, I Just ordered my new self driving Tesla! Over 1000HP, 0-60 in 2.0 seconds!

Details on how to win the Tesla of your Choice soon on https://t.co/9hkyEX1UVi! pic.twitter.com/PSCCtUsXK2

— Sean Hannity 🇺🇸 (@seanhannity) March 11, 2025

Tesla shares closed at $248.09 on Wednesday, up 7.59%.

Investor's Corner

Tesla bull ARK loads up on over $20M in TSLA shares after stock slide

Published

6 days ago

March 11, 2025

Joey Klender

(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla bull ARK Invest loaded up on over $20 million worth of the automaker’s shares on Monday after the company saw its largest slide on the market since late 2020.

Shares dropped over 15 percent on Monday, mostly due to pushback on the stock as CEO Elon Musk heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). His involvement with the U.S. government directly has sent some investors into a predicament over Musk’s dedication to Tesla.

There are also concerns regarding Q1 deliveries, which will be a big indication of where the year could be headed for Tesla.

The Monday slide was the biggest since late 2020 when shares dropped over 21 percent.

However, the slide presents a massive buying opportunity for investors, especially those who operate ETFs, like ARK. Long term, ARK believes Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be exponentially more expensive, especially leaning on the thesis that Robotaxi and AI/Optimus will translate to major growth in yet another sector for the company.

ARK bolstered its position on $TSLA in its ARKK Innovation ETF with a purchase of 68,164 shares. Tesla is the largest holding in ARKK with over $531 million in value. Tesla makes up exactly 10 percent of the ARKK ETF.

It also bought another 11,154 shares in its ARKQ Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF.

It’s no secret Tesla shares have taken a substantial hit in 2025, especially as the company’s price on Wall Street exploded following President Trump’s successful election campaign last year.

So far in 2025, Tesla shares are down over 38 percent. They are up nearly 5 percent as of 2:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Even bullish analysts are hoping some focus returns to Tesla on Musk’s part.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note last night following the broad sell off:

“This is a gut check moment for the Tesla bulls (including ourselves) after this massive sell-off in Tesla shares with fears mounting/accelerating. The bears own the Tesla narrative in the near-term as lackluster sales numbers from Europe, China, and the US in January/February along with Musk protests/brand worries have created many concerns.”

He continued:

“While the DOGE/Trump Musk iron clad partnership has created major brand worries for Tesla…..we estimate less than 5% of Tesla sales globally are at risk from these issues despite the global draconian narrative for Musk. Importantly, we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”

Investor's Corner

Elon Musk praises Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater for accumulating TSLA stock

Published

1 month ago

February 14, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

A recent 13-F filing from legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has revealed that the hedge fund has added over $62 million worth of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) to its portfolio.

Elon Musk has praised the billionaire’s investment in a post on X.

Bridgewater’s TSLA stake:

As per Bridgewater’s 13-F filing, it currently holds 153,589 shares of TSLA, which costs $62,025,382.
The firm added the TSLA shares in the fourth quarter.
Tesla shares gained momentum after its Q3 2024 earnings call, and it only gained more strength after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
At the end of 2024, Tesla shares were up 62%, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
Tesla stock is still up 88% over 12 months despite a steep drop over the past month.

Smart move
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 14, 2025

A vote of confidence:

Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, so the firm’s stake in TSLA could be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the electric vehicle maker.
Elon Musk has praised the firm’s investment. In a post on X, Musk noted that Bridgewater’s investment was a “smart move.”
Elon Musk has been quite consistent on his idea that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He emphasized this point during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
“I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined,” Musk said.