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Tesla top 5: Week in review, January 28
It’s been a week in which we’ve seen Wall Street traders sheepishly admitting that their doom-and-gloom forecasts about Tesla stocks were just a bit off. The Model 3, with its important new target audience, was highlighted as one of the key stories to watch for 2017. Elon’s been tweeting again, this time about his newest idea to build a tunnel beneath LA’s notorious traffic bottlenecks. Also, Musk’s endorsement of Tillerson for Secretary of State did cause a few raised eyebrows, but his rationale did make sense. And Tesla is back in the courts, this time to sue a former exec for allegedly stealing proprietary information.
Trump effect takes hold of Tesla’s (TSLA) stock price
Tesla stock has been on the rise, making gains since the Q4 earnings report came in. Morgan Stanley automotive analyst Adam Jonas upgraded Tesla’s target price, citing “overlapping interest” with Trump in creating technology and manufacturing jobs. We at Teslarati conceded the “Trump effect” but also credited Tesla’s vivacious performance and surplus cash on hand as making a difference in 2017 Tesla stock projections. So, too, is Tesla’s ability to sell carbon credits to other automakers as well as improvements in their automotive production.
Tesla’s Model 3 will be big news in 2017 and why you should care
All along, Elon Musk has reiterated that his plan for Tesla has only started with selling luxury cars like the Model S sedan and Model X SUV. Ultimately, the long term goal has been to draw upon resulting revenue to develop an upscale but much more affordable car. Enter the Model 3 at a starting price of $35,000. Its sale is more than just another model that will broaden Tesla’s appeal: selling the Model 3 will mean introducing sustainable transport to a larger segment of the population and slowing climate change through decentralized energy generation.
Elon Musk plans to dig a tunnel from SpaceX to likely LAX airport
Elon Musk’s tunnel will connect SpaceX with nearby LAX airport
In December, Musk tweeted that “traffic is driving me nuts.” The result? He announced that he intended to open “The Boring Company,” which would build a tunnel boring machine as part of a traffic deterrent alternative. This week, Musk said it’s on the verge of happening: he is serious about his tunnel, and “exciting progress” has been made on tunnel plans. His most recent update, announced via Twitter, were that there is a “plan to start digging in a month or so.” The tunnel is project to begin in Hawthorne, California at the intersection of Crenshaw and the 105 Freeway, five minutes from LAX— oh, yeah, and conveniently located, Musk adds, “across from my desk at SpaceX.”
Why Musk is supporting former Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State
Controversial Rex Tillerson received narrow approval as Secretary of State this week. Musk’s response? “Rex is an exceptionally competent executive, understands geopolitics and knows how to win for his team. His team is now the USA. I share The Economist’s opinion that he should be given the benefit of the doubt unless his actions prove otherwise.” Musk rationalized his stance on Tillerson’s support for a carbon tax. “This is what is really needed to move the needle,” he added, because a carbon tax is the “best tool for fighting climate change.”
Ex-Tesla Director of Autopilot Software sued over accusations of stealing proprietary info
Tesla is in the courts again, with a recent series of court filings saying that a former employee who left to set up a rival business has stolen company secrets and lured away key staff. Sterling Anderson, who came on board with Tesla in 2014 as a senior product manager working on the Model X SUV and later became director of the Autopilot team, may have broken his contractual agreement with Tesla. Enticing staff moves away from Tesla and to Anderson’s new car company with working title “Aurora,” among other things, breaches a clause that prohibits any headhunting prior to a 12 month embargo.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
