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Tesla top 5: Week in review, January 28

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It’s been a week in which we’ve seen Wall Street traders sheepishly admitting that their doom-and-gloom forecasts about Tesla stocks were just a bit off. The Model 3, with its important new target audience, was highlighted as one of the key stories to watch for 2017. Elon’s been tweeting again, this time about his newest idea to build a tunnel beneath LA’s notorious traffic bottlenecks. Also, Musk’s endorsement of Tillerson for Secretary of State did cause a few raised eyebrows, but his rationale did make sense. And Tesla is back in the courts, this time to sue a former exec for allegedly stealing proprietary information.

Trump effect takes hold of Tesla’s (TSLA) stock price

Tesla stock has been on the rise, making gains since the Q4 earnings report came in. Morgan Stanley automotive analyst Adam Jonas upgraded Tesla’s target price, citing “overlapping interest” with Trump in creating technology and manufacturing jobs. We at Teslarati conceded the “Trump effect” but also credited Tesla’s vivacious performance and surplus cash on hand as making a difference in 2017 Tesla stock projections. So, too, is Tesla’s ability to sell carbon credits to other automakers as well as improvements in their automotive production.

Why is this significant?

Tesla’s Model 3 will be big news in 2017 and why you should care

All along, Elon Musk has reiterated that his plan for Tesla has only started with selling luxury cars like the Model S sedan and Model X SUV. Ultimately, the long term goal has been to draw upon resulting revenue to develop an upscale but much more affordable car. Enter the Model 3 at a starting price of $35,000. Its sale is more than just another model that will broaden Tesla’s appeal: selling the Model 3 will mean introducing sustainable transport to a larger segment of the population and slowing climate change through decentralized energy generation.

Why is this significant?

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Elon Musk plans to dig a tunnel from SpaceX to likely LAX airport

Elon Musk's tunnel will connect SpaceX with nearby LAX airport

Elon Musk’s tunnel will connect SpaceX with nearby LAX airport

In December, Musk tweeted that “traffic is driving me nuts.” The result? He announced that he intended to open “The Boring Company,” which would build a tunnel boring machine as part of a traffic deterrent alternative. This week, Musk said it’s on the verge of happening: he is serious about his tunnel, and “exciting progress” has been made on tunnel plans. His most recent update, announced via Twitter, were that there is a “plan to start digging in a month or so.” The tunnel is project to begin in Hawthorne, California at the intersection of Crenshaw and the 105 Freeway, five minutes from LAX— oh, yeah, and conveniently located, Musk adds, “across from my desk at SpaceX.”

Why is this significant?

Why Musk is supporting former Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State

Controversial Rex Tillerson received narrow approval as Secretary of State this week. Musk’s response? “Rex is an exceptionally competent executive, understands geopolitics and knows how to win for his team. His team is now the USA. I share The Economist’s opinion that he should be given the benefit of the doubt unless his actions prove otherwise.”  Musk rationalized his stance on Tillerson’s support for a carbon tax. “This is what is really needed to move the needle,” he added, because a carbon tax is the “best tool for fighting climate change.”

Why is this significant?

Ex-Tesla Director of Autopilot Software sued over accusations of stealing proprietary info

Tesla is in the courts again, with a recent series of court filings saying that a former employee who left to set up a rival business has stolen company secrets and lured away key staff. Sterling Anderson, who came on board with Tesla in 2014 as a senior product manager working on the Model X SUV and later became director of the Autopilot team, may have broken his contractual agreement with Tesla. Enticing staff moves away from Tesla and to Anderson’s new car company with working title “Aurora,” among other things, breaches a clause that prohibits any headhunting prior to a 12 month embargo.

Why is this significant?

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Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Elon Musk

SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly

The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

SpaceX’s initial comment

As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.

“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X. 

Incident and aftermath

Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.

Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers. 

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

Analysts highlight autonomy progress

During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.

The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. 

Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”

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Street targets diverge on TSLA

While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.

Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements. 

Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs. 

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SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing

Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory. 

Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired. 

Booster test failure

SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.

Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.

Tight deadlines

SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.

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While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.

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