Tesla has a clear-cut path to a massive $2 trillion market capitalization, which would make it the sixth-most valuable company in the world if all remains the same.
The company has spent the last month and a half bolstering its position as one of the best investments on Wall Street, as it has swelled over 73 percent since election night on November 4. However, there is more to be done.
Although Tesla is a top ten company in terms of market cap and by far the most valuable automaker in the world, there are so many things in the funnel that could help it gain more value, and not a small amount of value either.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives included Tesla in the firm’s Top 10 Christmas List for the Tech Sector in 2025, outlining a clear path for the company to make it to the $2 trillion threshold for the first time.
How Tesla can reach $2 trillion market cap
Tesla’s growth is likely going to be stalled if it only relies on automotive growth. Increasing deliveries to two and eventually three million cars a year would be a major accomplishment, but it is nothing other car companies are not doing already.
-->Instead, it will rely on its other projects to bolster its value and continue to add more in the coming years. One of the biggest is the prospect of fully autonomous driving and its Full Self-Driving suite.
Ives writes in his note that the autonomous vehicle projects Tesla is currently working on are worth $1 trillion alone in a bull-case scenario, and it could potentially achieve some of this in 2025.
The analyst writes:
“We believe with the autonomous story at Tesla worth $1 trillion alone that in a bull case scenario by the end of 2025, Tesla could achieve a $2 trillion market cap threshold. FSD, autonomous, and the launch of Cybercab for early 2026 are keys for Tesla.”
It goes deeper than just FSD and autonomy. The release of the Tesla Cybercab also plays a major role in the company’s ability to continue adding massive value, which is something investors are depending on in the coming years.
-->Tesla said it will launch the Cybercab “before 2027,” but it could have a suite robust enough for autonomous driving before it actually launches the vehicle itself. This is purely prospective, and it should be noted that Tesla has said for years it would solve autonomy, only to push back its timelines.
Credit: Tesla
We have heard CEO Elon Musk say many times that FSD would be solved by the end of the year.
That is not to say it will never happen. With the recent release of FSD v13.2, Tesla seems to be closer than ever before, but that goes without saying because of the progress it makes with data with every mile driven.
Even still, the autonomous driving project Tesla has been pot committed to for several years holds tremendous value in the grand scheme of the company story. Ives’s forecast of $1 trillion in value could hold true, and if it is, investors will be rewarded heavily for their efforts.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
