Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) 2021 Outlook: Deutsche Bank boosts guidance after record-setting year
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received some of its first outlooks from financial firms for 2021. Deutsche Bank is one of these firms, and the Wall Street-based company boosted its 2021 delivery guidance and revised its price target for the electric automaker.
Deutsche Bank went into the New Year paying close attention to Tesla’s 2020 delivery figures, as the company was chasing a lofty, but attainable, 500,000 vehicle production and delivery goal. Tesla released its Full-Year 2020 and Q4 2020 production and delivery figures on Saturday, revealing that it had attained its goals. For many years, Tesla has looked at 2020 as the year it would deliver half-a-million cars to its consumers, and many analysts looked at the company in doubt and disbelief, only to be proven wrong when the time came.
After Tesla’s remarkable 2020 showing, Deutsche Bank believes 2021 could be “pivotal” for the company’s future “with material revenue acceleration, benefitting from ramping up capacity and product lines across the globe.”
Tesla’s PT raised to $705 at Deutsche Bank$TSLA
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) January 4, 2021
-->Deutsche Bank said that it had raised its 2021 delivery forecast by 25,000 cars, from 775,000 to 800,000, “taking revenue to $46bn, in-line with consensus,” analysts at the firm wrote in a note to investors. “Mid-term, we believe Tesla’s impressive target trajectory for its technology, capacity, and especially cost could help accelerate the world’s shift to electric vehicles and extend Tesla’s EV lead considerably,” the note also stated.
Tesla was, without a doubt, the big winner in the automotive industry in 2020. Only ten major automakers were able to report positive numbers in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019, and Tesla was the only one that was able to report substantial growth when comparing the two figures. After a 154.7% growth from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020, according to GoodCarBadCar, it was evident that EVs are here, and the ones that dawn the notorious Tesla “T” on the hood are the most popular.
It seemed like 2020 was a lost cause at the beginning of Q2 because Tesla was already forced to shut down Giga Shanghai in China and the Fremont Factory in Northern California due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fremont, Tesla’s main facility, was closed for around a month and a half, which cause the automaker to report sub-100,000 numbers for the second quarter of the year. Many people considered it a lethal blow to Tesla’s 500k goal, but the automaker pulled out one of the most remarkable production and delivery pushes that it will likely ever see in its history.
RELATED ARTICLE:
Tesla (TSLA) closes out 2020 with a new bull: Masterlink Securities
-->Deutsche Bank is still banking on 2025 being Tesla’s breakout year, with a revenue of $94 billion and more than 2 million cars delivered during that year. However, near term forecasts still see significant growth in production and demand taking place, especially considering Tesla has two large-scale production facilities in the works in Texas and Germany.
Tesla also received a price target boost from $500 to $705, which is “based on the average of 50x our 2025 EPS (discounted back) and EV/sales multiple of 17.5x 2022 (vs. prior 12x) as we believe investor enthusiasm for high-quality pure EV plays and expected confirmation of ongoing technology lead by Tesla should continue to support higher valuation.”
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
What do you think? Leave a comment down below. Got a tip? Email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at joey@teslarati.com.
-->
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Swedish union rep pissed that Tesla is working around a postal blockade they started
Czech Deputy excited for Tesla FSD, hints at Transport Committee review
