Investor's Corner
Tesla 2024: What analysts are saying about outlook for the New Year
Tesla closed out 2023 with a bang, reporting record deliveries for a calendar year and eclipsing the 1.8 million unit production goal that was set at the beginning of the year.
Now, 2024 is here, and analysts are putting into scope what could come from Tesla this year. There are a lot of rumors of what the automaker could bring to the table this year, including its rumored $25,000 vehicle, revamps of the Model 3 coming to the United States, and a new version of the Model Y hitting the scene. Tesla will also look to ramp up production of the Cybertruck this year.
Tesla Model 3 Highland delivery from Fremont expected by the end of Q1 2024
Analysts are split on what they expect from Tesla in 2024, while the bulls are being bulls and the bears are being bears. What else should we expect, right?
But for what it is worth, in order to get a well-rounded perspective of what might be on the way, we are looking at both sides of the argument, highlighting what Tesla’s supporting analysts are expecting from the company in 2024. Inversely, we will also look at the more pessimistic analysts, and why they feel 2024 could be the most challenging year for Tesla yet.
Bullish Sentiments
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is one of the bulls in the Tesla story, and he projects roughly 2.25 million vehicle deliveries this year.
Additionally, Jonas feels that the true indication of Tesla’s dominance will be felt outside of China, where it has struggled to keep up with domestic automakers. Instead, the focus is in the United States and Europe:
“Outside of China, we struggle to see anyone who can compete with Tesla at this stage. We don’t think it’s a coincidence at all that Tesla’s ‘stepped up’ engagement with foreign countries comes at a time when China has surpassed Japan as the largest exporter of passenger cars.”
Jonas maintained a $380 price target on the stock.
Meanwhile, Jefferies reiterated a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock but raised its 12-month price target to $255 from $210 after reporting its 2023 volume.
A note from analysts at the firm stated that, although there were no significant changes in volume, there was a decrease in leasing adoption and above-expected delivery numbers for “Other Models,” meaning Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. These could indicate an easier 4680 battery production ramp, or, perhaps, a better-than-expected Cybertruck ramp-up as the early months of the project continue on.
Analysts from Jefferies wrote (via Investing):
“High deliveries of Cybertrucks in Q4 may not help 2023 profitability and we continue to see the vehicle as Off-Mission. Still, it would suggest an earlier or smoother ramp manufacturing 4680 cells or trucks than feared.”
Bearish Narratives
The Bear argument is one that many firms continue to maintain, and Deutsche Bank is one, especially as the firm sees a “large downside risk” on Tesla stock moving forward.
Analysts from the firm see guidance of 2.1 million units being realistic, as well as a veer-away from the 50 percent CAGR over the mid-term.
The risk comes from reduced volume forecast due to market assumptions, pricing pressures, the Cybertruck’s potential impact on Tesla’s strong margins, and an elevated tax rate in China.
Additionally, Toni Sacconaghi believes the auotmaker could fall 40 percent this year, especially as margin pressure comes to the forefront. He also believes Tesla will “disappoint on volumes.”
Sacconaghi said in December Tesla was the best stock to short heading into the New Year, and while he reiterated his $150 price target on the stock, the analyst seems to share the same sentiments as Deutsche Bank. Margins are the focus for bears in 2024, and Tesla has some of the best in the automotive industry for years.
Tesla shares were down roughly 3.75 percent at the time of publish, trading around $239 a share.
Disclosure: I own Tesla shares.
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Elon Musk
Tesla stock gets latest synopsis from Jim Cramer: ‘It’s actually a robotics company’
“Turns out it’s actually a robotics and Cybercab company, and I want to buy, buy, buy. Yes, Tesla’s the paper that turned into scissors in one session,” Cramer said.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got its latest synopsis from Wall Street analyst Jim Cramer, who finally realized something that many fans of the company have known all along: it’s not a car company. Instead, it’s a robotics company.
In a recent note that was released after Tesla reported Earnings in late January, Cramer seemed to recognize that the underwhelming financials and overall performance of the automotive division were not representative of the current state of affairs.
Instead, we’re seeing a company transition itself away from its early identity, essentially evolving like a caterpillar into a butterfly.
The narrative of the Earnings Call was simple: We’re not a car company, at least not from a birds-eye view. We’re an AI and Robotics company, and we are transitioning to this quicker than most people realize.
Tesla stock gets another analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like it
Tesla’s Q4 Earnings Call featured plenty of analysis from CEO Elon Musk and others, and some of the more minor details of the call were even indicative of a company that is moving toward AI instead of its cars. For example, the Model S and Model X will be no more after Q2, as Musk said that they serve relatively no purpose for the future.
Instead, Tesla is shifting its focus to the vehicles catered for autonomy and its Robotaxi and self-driving efforts.
Cramer recognizes this:
“…we got results from Tesla, which actually beat numbers, but nobody cares about the numbers here, as electric vehicles are the past. And according to CEO Elon Musk, the future of this company comes down to Cybercabs and humanoid robots. Stock fell more than 3% the next day. That may be because their capital expenditures budget was higher than expected, or maybe people wanted more details from the new businesses. At this point, I think Musk acolytes might be more excited about SpaceX, which is planning to come public later this year.”
He continued, highlighting the company’s true transition away from vehicles to its Cybercab, Optimus, and AI ambitions:
“I know it’s hard to believe how quickly this market can change its attitude. Last night, I heard a disastrous car company speak. Turns out it’s actually a robotics and Cybercab company, and I want to buy, buy, buy. Yes, Tesla’s the paper that turned into scissors in one session. I didn’t like it as a car company. Boy, I love it as a Cybercab and humanoid robot juggernaut. Call me a buyer and give me five robots while I’m at it.”
Cramer’s narrative seems to fit that of the most bullish Tesla investors. Anyone who is labeled a “permabull” has been echoing a similar sentiment over the past several years: Tesla is not a car company any longer.
Instead, the true focus is on the future and the potential that AI and Robotics bring to the company. It is truly difficult to put Tesla shares in the same group as companies like Ford, General Motors, and others.
Tesla shares are down less than half a percent at the time of publishing, trading at $423.69.
There are a lot of Tesla bulls out there who have astronomical expectations for the company, especially as its arm of reach has gone well past automotive and energy and entered artificial intelligence and robotics.
However, some of the most bullish Tesla investors believe the company could become worth $100 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk does not believe that number is completely out of the question, even if it sounds almost ridiculous.
To put that number into perspective, the top ten most valuable companies in the world — NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and Tesla — are worth roughly $26 trillion.
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Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes the number is reasonable considering Tesla’s long-reaching industry ambitions:
“…in the world of AI, what do you have to have to win? You have to have proprietary data, and think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data. Tesla, the language of the road; Neuralink, multiomics data; nobody else has that data. X, nobody else has that data either. I could see $100 trillion. I think it’s going to happen because of convergence. I think Tesla is the leading candidate [for $100 trillion] for the reason I just said.”
Musk said late last year that all of his companies seem to be “heading toward convergence,” and it’s started to come to fruition. Tesla invested in xAI, as revealed in its Q4 Earnings Shareholder Deck, and SpaceX recently acquired xAI, marking the first step in the potential for a massive umbrella of companies under Musk’s watch.
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Now that it is happening, it seems Musk is even more enthusiastic about a massive valuation that would swell to nearly four-times the value of the top ten most valuable companies in the world currently, as he said on X, the idea of a $100 trillion valuation is “not impossible.”
It’s not impossible
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2026
Tesla is not just a car company. With its many projects, including the launch of Robotaxi, the progress of the Optimus robot, and its AI ambitions, it has the potential to continue gaining value at an accelerating rate.
Musk’s comments show his confidence in Tesla’s numerous projects, especially as some begin to mature and some head toward their initial stages.
Elon Musk
Tesla director pay lawsuit sees lawyer fees slashed by $100 million
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
The Delaware Supreme Court has cut more than $100 million from a legal fee award tied to a shareholder lawsuit challenging compensation paid to Tesla directors between 2017 and 2020.
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
Delaware Supreme Court trims legal fees
As noted in a Bloomberg Law report, the case targeted pay granted to Tesla directors, including CEO Elon Musk, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Kimbal Musk, and Rupert Murdoch. The Delaware Chancery Court had awarded $176 million to the plaintiffs. Tesla’s board must also return stock options and forego years worth of pay.
As per Chief Justice Collins J. Seitz Jr. in an opinion for the Delaware Supreme Court’s full five-member panel, however, the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court to award $176 million to a pension fund’s law firm “erred by including in its financial benefit analysis the intrinsic value” of options being returned by Tesla’s board.
The justices then reduced the fee award from $176 million to $70.9 million. “As we measure it, $71 million reflects a reasonable fee for counsel’s efforts and does not result in a windfall,” Chief Justice Seitz wrote.
Other settlement terms still intact
The Supreme Court upheld the settlement itself, which requires Tesla’s board to return stock and options valued at up to $735 million and to forgo three years of additional compensation worth about $184 million.
Tesla argued during oral arguments that a fee award closer to $70 million would be appropriate. Interestingly enough, back in October, Justice Karen L. Valihura noted that the $176 award was $60 million more than the Delaware judiciary’s budget from the previous year. This was quite interesting as the case was “settled midstream.”
The lawsuit was brought by a pension fund on behalf of Tesla shareholders and focused exclusively on director pay during the 2017–2020 period. The case is separate from other high-profile compensation disputes involving Elon Musk.
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