Investor's Corner
Tesla 2024: What analysts are saying about outlook for the New Year
Tesla closed out 2023 with a bang, reporting record deliveries for a calendar year and eclipsing the 1.8 million unit production goal that was set at the beginning of the year.
Now, 2024 is here, and analysts are putting into scope what could come from Tesla this year. There are a lot of rumors of what the automaker could bring to the table this year, including its rumored $25,000 vehicle, revamps of the Model 3 coming to the United States, and a new version of the Model Y hitting the scene. Tesla will also look to ramp up production of the Cybertruck this year.
Tesla Model 3 Highland delivery from Fremont expected by the end of Q1 2024
Analysts are split on what they expect from Tesla in 2024, while the bulls are being bulls and the bears are being bears. What else should we expect, right?
But for what it is worth, in order to get a well-rounded perspective of what might be on the way, we are looking at both sides of the argument, highlighting what Tesla’s supporting analysts are expecting from the company in 2024. Inversely, we will also look at the more pessimistic analysts, and why they feel 2024 could be the most challenging year for Tesla yet.
Bullish Sentiments
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is one of the bulls in the Tesla story, and he projects roughly 2.25 million vehicle deliveries this year.
Additionally, Jonas feels that the true indication of Tesla’s dominance will be felt outside of China, where it has struggled to keep up with domestic automakers. Instead, the focus is in the United States and Europe:
“Outside of China, we struggle to see anyone who can compete with Tesla at this stage. We don’t think it’s a coincidence at all that Tesla’s ‘stepped up’ engagement with foreign countries comes at a time when China has surpassed Japan as the largest exporter of passenger cars.”
Jonas maintained a $380 price target on the stock.
Meanwhile, Jefferies reiterated a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock but raised its 12-month price target to $255 from $210 after reporting its 2023 volume.
A note from analysts at the firm stated that, although there were no significant changes in volume, there was a decrease in leasing adoption and above-expected delivery numbers for “Other Models,” meaning Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. These could indicate an easier 4680 battery production ramp, or, perhaps, a better-than-expected Cybertruck ramp-up as the early months of the project continue on.
Analysts from Jefferies wrote (via Investing):
“High deliveries of Cybertrucks in Q4 may not help 2023 profitability and we continue to see the vehicle as Off-Mission. Still, it would suggest an earlier or smoother ramp manufacturing 4680 cells or trucks than feared.”
Bearish Narratives
The Bear argument is one that many firms continue to maintain, and Deutsche Bank is one, especially as the firm sees a “large downside risk” on Tesla stock moving forward.
Analysts from the firm see guidance of 2.1 million units being realistic, as well as a veer-away from the 50 percent CAGR over the mid-term.
The risk comes from reduced volume forecast due to market assumptions, pricing pressures, the Cybertruck’s potential impact on Tesla’s strong margins, and an elevated tax rate in China.
Additionally, Toni Sacconaghi believes the auotmaker could fall 40 percent this year, especially as margin pressure comes to the forefront. He also believes Tesla will “disappoint on volumes.”
Sacconaghi said in December Tesla was the best stock to short heading into the New Year, and while he reiterated his $150 price target on the stock, the analyst seems to share the same sentiments as Deutsche Bank. Margins are the focus for bears in 2024, and Tesla has some of the best in the automotive industry for years.
Tesla shares were down roughly 3.75 percent at the time of publish, trading around $239 a share.
Disclosure: I own Tesla shares.
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Elon Musk
OpenAI cites distrust of SpaceX in decision to drop Cursor partnership
OpenAI will cut SpaceX-owned Cursor’s model access in November, citing Musk’s history of broken contracts.
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, announced late Friday that it is ending its partnership with Cursor, cutting off the coding tool’s access to its models on November 12. The move comes two weeks after SpaceX completed its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor’s parent company, Anysphere, folding the popular AI coding assistant into Elon Musk’s growing SpaceXAI division.
In a post on its website, OpenAI said the decision came down to trust, not technology. “We cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our terms of service, based on our experience with Elon Musk’s companies violating contracts,” the company wrote. OpenAI pointed to two specific incidents: X, now part of SpaceX, allegedly breaking the terms of an existing OpenAI contract after Musk bought Twitter.
That lawsuit is the backdrop for all of this. Musk cofounded OpenAI in 2015, left the board in 2018, and sued Sam Altman and Greg Brockman in 2024, arguing they abandoned the company’s nonprofit mission for profit. A federal jury sided with OpenAI in May, finding Musk waited too long to sue rather than ruling on the merits of his claims. Musk said at the time he would appeal to the Ninth Circuit, calling the outcome a “calendar technicality” rather than a real judgment.
SpaceX’s interest in Cursor predates that verdict by weeks. The company first struck a deal with Cursor in April, securing an option to acquire it for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for joint development work instead. As Teslarati reported at the time, the logic was straightforward: Cursor was paying retail prices to Anthropic and OpenAI, two of its most direct competitors, every time a developer used its product, while SpaceX had idle capacity on its Colossus supercomputer, roughly the equivalent of a million Nvidia H100 GPUs, that Cursor could use to train its own models instead. SpaceX exercised the option in June, days after its own IPO, and the deal closed in mid-August.
Once it closed, Musk moved fast. On an all-hands call with more than 1,000 Cursor employees, he reportedly told staff that SpaceXAI’s Grok was playing catchup in the AI race, unlike Tesla and SpaceX in their own markets, and singled out Anthropic as the company to catch. Cursor CEO Michael Truell now reports directly to Musk inside SpaceXAI.
Losing OpenAI’s models leaves Cursor leaning harder on Anthropic’s Claude, which has its own compute agreement with SpaceX, and on Cursor’s in-house Composer model, the one SpaceX’s compute was supposed to accelerate in the first place. OpenAI framed the November deadline as maximum notice under its contract, and said it wants to “go above and beyond” to help developers through the transition. Whether Anthropic makes the same call is now the open question in AI coding.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Robotaxi gets a massive upgrade in Nevada
Nevada regulators just approved a massive expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi fleet across the entire county.
Tesla’s robotaxi footprint in Nevada just grew by roughly 500 times in a single regulatory vote.
The Nevada Transportation Authority approved Tesla’s full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit on Thursday, clearing the way for the company to deploy up to 5,000 driverless vehicles across Clark County over the next 12 months. The decision came during a four hour general session meeting that Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt watched live and reported on X, noting the vote replaces the interim order that had limited Tesla to just 10 robotaxis on a narrow stretch of the Las Vegas Strip.
EXCLUSIVE: Tesla has just officially received approval for its full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit in Nevada, clearing the way for Tesla to launch a paid public Robotaxi service in Las Vegas.
This officially allows @Tesla to deploy up to 5,000 robotaxis over the next… pic.twitter.com/DPs5UtUlrE
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 20, 2026
That earlier cap, covered here after it surfaced on August 13, came with restrictions that looked stricter than what Tesla runs in Austin: a 45 mph speed ceiling, no airport pickups, and a geofence confined to the Strip corridor. The new approval extends Tesla’s operating authority to all of Clark County, with room to request an even wider geofence across the state.
Tesla representatives at the meeting said they have no intention of putting 5,000 cars on the road right away. Commercial rides are expected to start within 30 days, pending vehicle inspections, insurance filings, and fare approval, the standard steps every robotaxi operator in Nevada has had to clear.
Tesla’s own Robotaxi account replied to the news with a short line, The golden future is upon us.
The timing lines up with Tesla’s broader robotaxi push this month. The company is preparing to open Cybercab rides to the public in Austin as soon as this month, and it opened a sweepstakes for riders to win a seat at the launch event. Tesla filed its original application for a 5,000 vehicle Nevada fleet back in June, a request regulators trimmed to 10 vehicles when they issued the interim order in July. Thursday’s vote effectively grants the number Tesla asked for from the start.
Zoox, the Amazon owned robotaxi operator, has run in Nevada since 2025 and was capped at 100 vehicles before Thursday’s decision. Tesla’s new ceiling puts it well ahead of that comparison on paper, though the company has said its actual fleet size will depend on how quickly FSD v15 rolls out, the software update executives have called the gateway to scaling unsupervised robotaxi operations nationwide.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit
Tesla Cybercab Event: what to expect from Austin
