Investor's Corner
Tesla and Apple’s EV sales predicted to reach $3T valuation by Wall Street
Wall Street analysts have high hopes that Tesla and Apple’s electric vehicle and autonomous sales could propel the companies towards a $3 trillion valuation each.
On Monday, TSLA stock closed at $670.00 per share, reaching a market cap of $643.10 billion. Apple stock closed at $123.39 per share, and the company’s market cap stands at $2.07 trillion.
Rumors of the Apple car have been circulating recently, reviving the tech giant’s foray into the electric vehicle market, where it will undoubtedly be pitted against Tesla. According to some Wall Street analysts, if Apple does enter the EV market and successfully produces an electric vehicle that proves profitable, the tech company may reach a $3 trillion valuation.
Nicholas Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek Research, said Tesla will need to show its profitability to reach a $3 trillion valuation.
“A $3 trillion market cap has to be a function of both the promise of a technology and some very tangible proof that its economic model is profitable and deeply profitable. “So you don’t get to $1 trillion, let alone $3 trillion by just talking. You get there by showing the numbers, by showing the profitability,” Colas told Bloomberg.
“Tesla has yet to prove remarkable profitability. And it doesn’t exactly operate in a sector that has remarkable profitability. I understand why it has the valuation it has today — breaking through on EVs and making them a mass-market concept is worth this valuation. However, getting a triple out of it requires that you then show that that business model is profitable,” he added.
With Elon Musk at the helm, Tesla has become a formidable force in the global EV industry. So the question might not be “if” Tesla can prove remarkable profitability, but “when” it will happen.
Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limited value to testing 8.x. Hoping to upload V9.0 & button next month.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 20, 2021
Tesla has steadily increased production and vehicle sales over the years. Demand for Tesla vehicles seems to be rising at a steady pace as well. And the company has started expanding its production capabilities throughout the world with Gigafactory Shanghai, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas.
Tesla has also been releasing regular improvements to the Full Self-Driving beta. Recently, Musk estimated that Tesla would release the FSD beta button next month, allowing more owners to become beta testers. So it seems like Tesla has taken the necessary foundational steps to prove “remarkable profitability,” as Colas described it.
On the other hand, an Apple EV car would be the first electric vehicle produced by a tech giant rather than a startup or a legacy automaker. There would be some advantages to Apple’s electric vehicle. For instance, the Apple car might have technology that legacy automakers are still struggling to develop, including autonomous software.
However, Apple would also probably have to go through a steep learning curve when ramping the production of its electric vehicle. As such, reaching a $3 trillion valuation from EV and autonomous sales might not be easy for Apple either.
Disclosure: I am long TSLA.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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