Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) stock price is the highest it's been in 2019, closing in on 52-week high
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently crossed the $360 barrier, effectively hitting a year-to-date high. If Tesla maintains this momentum, the electric car maker may find itself within striking distance of its all-time high, especially if its Q4 2019 results are positively received by the market.
Tesla opened Friday at $361.05 per share, rising as high as $365.21 as of writing. This is the highest that Tesla has been in 2019 so far, with the closest one being November 19, when TSLA stock knocked on $359.99 before closing at $359.52. In a way, this bodes well for Tesla, considering that just a couple of months ago, the electric car maker’s shares were at the $240-$250 level.
Tesla has not had an easy time in 2019, being bogged down by pessimistic outlooks from Wall Street and missed internal targets. Following a first-quarter and second-quarter loss, TSLA stock dipped so much that it traded as low as $176.99 per share on June 3. Tesla recovered in a relatively slow and steady manner, at least until its blockbuster Q3 2019 earnings, which exceeded Wall Street’s expectations.
This fourth quarter, Tesla has yet another opportunity to surprise. CEO Elon Musk has been quite subdued this Q4, refraining (at least for now) from declaring hyper-ambitious targets for the company in terms of its production and delivery numbers. During the second-quarter earnings call, Musk noted that Q3 will likely be a break-even quarter, and Q4 will be profitable. These expectations were broken in the third quarter when instead of breaking even, Tesla posted a profit.
Amidst Elon Musk’s relative silence, Tesla does have some positive momentum carrying it towards the end of the year. Unlike past quarters, Tesla does not seem to be engaging in its now-trademark end-of-quarter delivery push, which involves the company going all hands on deck around the clock in a mad dash to deliver as many vehicles as possible during the final month of a quarter. It appears that deliveries are ongoing en masse this Q4, but the sense of near-desperate urgency present in past quarters does not seem to be there.
Apart from these, signs are abounding that Tesla Model 3 demand remains healthy. As noted by observations from the Tesla community, the all-electric sedan seemed to be sold out for 2019, with only a few areas assuring customers of delivery before the end of the year. In several territories in Europe and even in Asia, Model 3 deliveries for new orders are now estimated for Q1 2020.
Tesla has also been progressing well in its efforts to expand its reach to other countries. Gigafactory 3 Phase 1 has been fully completed, and mass production of the company’s Made-in-China Model 3 has begun. Tesla has also received a license to sell the all-electric sedan locally. Furthermore, the Made-in-China Model 3 has been granted government incentives, which will likely make the vehicle more attractive to mainstream buyers. Just recently, truckloads of Tesla Model 3 have been spotted being transported from Gigafactory 3, giving the impression that initial deliveries may just be around the corner.
Of course, Tesla does need to meet its ambitious targets to fully meet its own guidance. The electric car maker has estimated that it would deliver about 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019. Following Q3’s results, Tesla will need to deliver about 105,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter to meet this goal. If it does, then it would not be surprising if Tesla stock ends up being in striking distance of its all-time-high of $383.45 per share, which was achieved on June 19, 2017.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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