Investor's Corner
Morgan Stanley outlines Tesla’s 8 key drivers for further expansion
Recently, Morgan Stanley (MS) released a note on Tesla’s future capacity expansion. The note discussed key drivers that would push Tesla’s growth further in terms of model/segment and factory footprint. Each driver is discussed below.
Produce in markets where they want to sell & diversify outside China
“Cars don’t ship like iPhones, and there are benefits in high localization,” wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts. The investment bank expects “to see significant diversification going forward.”
Gigafactory Shanghai has proven to be an excellent move for Tesla. Tesla China has significantly contributed to the company’s growth since the Shanghai factory started operations. Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are poised to have the same impact when they are operational.
Make each new factory its ‘best’ factory
The Morgan Stanley note stated that there may be room to improve Tesla’s factories, specifically design, cost, and automation.
Tesla always strives to improve and be more efficient. The company’s constant push to improve can be seen in the slight differences and improvements in each Gigafactory. For example, Tesla Giga Shanghai’s layout and design seem based on the GA4 tent the company built when the company was ramping Model 3 production.
Giga Berlin seems to follow the same design, but Tesla has invested in some impressive machines for production in Europe. For instance, Elon Musk has talked about Giga Berlin’s paint shop for quite some time, describing it as one of the most advanced paint shops in the world.
Then there is Giga Texas, which will be Tesla’s Cybertruck factory. The Cybertruck’s unique stainless steel exoskeleton would probably introduce some tough production challenges that would undoubtedly bring about solutions in ways only Tesla could solve.
Spread bets across national regimes
Morgan Stanley writes that “the industry has learned some recent valuable lessons on overdependence on concentrated/extended supply chains.”
In the last earnings call, Elon Musk shared that Tesla faced some supply chain challenges in the first quarter, which the team handled well. Some rumors suggest that Tesla may be interested in investing in its own factory for chips to avoid similar supply chain challenges in the future. Tesla also stepped forward to help a global shipping company with its vast amounts of shipping data, hinting that Tesla is learning more about supply chain processes.
Tesla’s drivers for technological growth
Morgan Stanley lists two drivers related to Tesla tech that could help the company’s expansion. One tech-related driver states Tesla should set technology standards in major regions by getting there first.
The second driver related to tech states that battery economics drive expansion. “We believe battery vertical integration co-located with final assembly ideally suited to volume of 500k to 1mm units per plant,” noted the Wall Street firm.
Drivers for Tesla’s global market expansion
In its note, Morgan Stanley wrote that Tesla should aggressively reduce prices to prevent/delay encroachment from big tech. The note specifically mentions the Apple Car, calling it the “stalking horse.” Granted, Apple might be able to develop software for vehicles that is much better than software found in the cars of Tesla competitors. However, mass-producing a vehicle would be a challenge for a tech company like Apple with no car production experience.
The Wall Street firm also lists that Tesla partnerships could be a natural outcrop of the company’s global/scaled strategy. “We see scope for Tesla to work with other OEMs (both legacy and startups) in areas such as batteries, full EV skateboards, OS, and other products and services.
Tesla and Elon Musk have always been open to working with other automakers to drive its main goal forward: to expedite the move towards a solar electric economy.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, January 28, 2025.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
For the Full Year 2025, Tesla produced 1,654,667 and delivered 1,636,129 vehicles. The company also deployed a total of 46.7 GWh worth of energy storage products.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results
As could be seen in Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.24 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share in the fourth quarter. Tesla also posted total revenues of $24.901 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $840 million in Q4.
Analyst consensus for Q4 has Tesla earnings per share falling 38% to $0.45 with revenue declining 4% to $24.74 billion, as per estimates from FactSet. In comparison, the consensus compiled by Tesla last week forecasted $0.44 per share on sales totaling $24.49 billion.
For FY 2025, Tesla posted GAAP EPS of $1.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $94.827 billion, which include $69.526 billion from automotive and $12.771 billion from the battery storage business. GAAP net income is also listed at $3.794 billion in FY 2025.
xAI Investment
Tesla entered an agreement to invest approximately $2 billion to acquire Series E preferred shares in Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, as part of the company’s recently disclosed financing round. Tesla said the investment was made on market terms consistent with those agreed to by other participants in the round.
The investment aligns with Tesla’s strategy under Master Plan Part IV, which centers on bringing artificial intelligence into the physical world through products and services. While Tesla focuses on real-world AI applications, xAI is developing digital AI platforms, including its Grok large language model.
Below is Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter.
TSLA-Q4-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results
Tesla rolls out new Supercharging safety feature in the U.S.
