Investor's Corner
Tesla’s Full Year, Q4 2018 financial report and earnings call set for January 30
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced the date for the release of its Full Year and Q4 2018 financial results report; as well as its following earnings call. In a recent announcement on its Investor Relations page, Tesla stated that it would be posting its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year ending December 31, 2018 after the market closes on Wednesday, January 30, 2019.
The company would be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its Q4 and Full Year 2018 Update Letter after Wednesday’s close, which would be accessible from Tesla’s Investor Relations website. A live Q&A session is set for 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time), to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial and business results and outlook.
Tesla’s Q4 and Full Year 2018 earnings call comes at a time after the company completed yet another record quarter in terms of Model 3 production and deliveries. During Q4 2018, Tesla manufactured a total of 86,555 electric cars including 61,394 Model 3 and 25,161 Model S and X — an increase of 8% compared to the company’s prior all-time high in the third quarter. Tesla’s deliveries also showed an 8% increase from Q3 2018’s ATH, with a total of 90,700 vehicles comprised of 63,150 Model 3, 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X. By the time the fourth quarter ended, 1,010 Model 3 and 1,897 Model S and X were in transit to customers.
Tesla’s production and deliveries for the full year also reached new heights. The company delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles, comprised of 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X over 2018. Putting these numbers in perspective, the electric car maker delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as the company did since it started producing the original Tesla Roadster more than 10 years ago.
Since ending the fourth quarter on a strong note, Tesla has been showing signs that it is ready to bring the Model 3 to the international market. In January alone, Tesla registered more than 39,000 Model 3 VINs that were designated for foreign territories. Reports from local European media have also suggested that Tesla is aiming to ship 3,000 Model 3 per week to the region. In China, the Model 3 configurator has been opened to reservation holders, with expected deliveries for the vehicle starting on March.
In a recent email to employees, Elon Musk noted hinted at another GAAP profitable quarter. Seemingly setting expectations early, Musk pointed out that the fourth quarter’s profit would likely not be as much as Q3 2018.
“In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3,” Musk said.
Tesla is facing yet another challenging year this 2019, as the company is expected to introduce and produce some of its most ambitious projects to date. Among these are the production of the $35,000 Standard Range Model 3, the introduction of the Model Y, the manufacturing ramp of the Solar Roof tiles, and the possible start of production for the Tesla Semi. Updates on other vehicles such as the Tesla Roadster and the Tesla pickup truck are also expected to be held sometime this year.
Tesla’s announcement for its Q4 and Full Year 2018 earnings call can be accessed here.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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