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Tesla’s (TSLA) fundamentals ‘underappreciated,’ says analyst amid canceled privatization drama

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is showing its trademark volatility on Monday’s early morning trading, as the company deals with the aftermath of Elon Musk’s decision to walk back on his efforts to take the company private. While the electric car maker’s shares dropped as low as 6% during Monday’s premarket, Tesla nonetheless opened at $318 per share, not too far from Friday’s $322.82 close.

Tesla’s stock has been characteristically volatile, but after Musk’s fateful tweet earlier this month when he suggested that funding was “secured” for the company going private at $420 per share, TSLA has experienced even wilder swings than usual. The company’s privatization efforts eventually came to a head on Friday night, when Elon Musk published a blog post on Tesla’s official website stating that the privatization efforts would no longer be pursued. Musk’s decision was met with strong reactions, with many Tesla supporters lauding the CEO’s decision and critics voicing out their frustrations.

Tesla’s abandonment of its go-private initiative has resulted in a wave of criticism from the company’s naysayers. Prominent short-seller Jim Chanos, who believes that TSLA is worth $0, described the company as a “corporate-governance disaster.” Jeffrey Osborne of Cowen Group noted that he sees “mounting obstacles for the company” in the near future such such shareholder lawsuits and SEC investigations over Elon Musk’s behavior.

That said, some of Tesla’s supporters on Wall Street believe that there is a silver lining to the entire go-private drama. Baird analyst Ben Kallo, for one, stated in note on Monday that Baird remains optimistic about Tesla, especially since the company’s fundamentals, which have been steadily improving, might be “underappreciated.” Kallo did admit that a potential SEC penalty would likely weigh against Tesla, though if this does happen, Elon Musk himself would probably be the one who would bear the consequences.

“We expect shares to appreciate over the intermediate term as the focus shifts back to fundamentals, which we believe may be underappreciated. We are buyers on weakness as we expect shares to move higher ahead of third-quarter deliveries and results. A potential SEC penalty will remain an overhang; while it is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of an investigation, historical settlements may demonstrate perceived risks could be overblown. Additionally, we think any penalties will likely be borne by Musk.”

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Kallo still maintained his Outperform rating for Tesla, setting a price target of $411 for the electric car maker.

Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch also maintained his Outperform rating for the company. According to the analyst, stepping away from the go-private initiative “removes a large distraction that had significant chance of failure and the potential to severely limit Tesla’s access to capital while attempting to execute on its ambitious product strategy.” RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak also noted that while Tesla and Elon Musk’s credibility have taken a hit due to the CEO’s behavior on Twitter, the firm believes that “the story will come back to the Model 3 ramp — not just the units but the profitability.”

The Model 3 ramp has been showing encouraging signs this August. Apart from Elon Musk confirming during the Q2 2018 earnings call that Tesla was able to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week during “multiple weeks” in July, the company also passed the 100,000-mark in its VIN registrations for the electric sedan. Analysts from Evercore ISI who toured the Fremont factory also released a favorable report, stating that Tesla has the potential to ramp production to 7,000-8,000 Model 3 per week with “very little incremental capital expenditure.” 

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -3.15% at $312.73 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

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Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

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