Investor's Corner
Deutsche Bank posts bullish TSLA outlook after meeting with Tesla executive
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has received a positive outlook from Deutsche Bank, which recently hosted a meeting with a Tesla executive. The 149-year-old financial firm stated that Tesla could be reaching a turning point towards profitability, particularly as pieces fall into place in regions such as Europe and China, where the electric car maker could make a significant impact.
Deutsche Bank Senior Autos & Auto Technology Analyst Emmanuel Rosner outlined a number of the optimistic conclusions that the financial firm reached after its meeting with Tesla Head of investor Relations Martin Viecha in London, following the executive’s participation at the IAA Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.
“Overall, we found Tesla’s message to be bullish about the company’s near-term dynamics, and the potential for the next 12 months to be a turning point for the company’s profitability. In the near term, Tesla described stable Model 3 ASP, strong initial UK demand, and large demand potential from Europe and Korea markets, which could all help boost gross margins. Beyond it, China production seems on track to start before year-end, there should be large ramp up in credits from FCA deal, and Model Y should start production in the fall of 2020, which Tesla expects will yield large additional boost to profitability and cash flow,” the financial firm wrote.
Tesla is currently involved in yet another push to deliver as many vehicles as it can before the end of the third quarter. The company has had a challenging year, with its delivery challenges in Q1 and its loss in Q2 despite hitting record numbers. Elon Musk has not really provided a hint about Tesla’s state this Q3, though reports from regions such as Europe and China suggest that demand remains strong for the company’s vehicles. Tesla’s renewed focus on residential solar could also play into the company’s favor.
While Tesla stock remains volatile, the third quarter has actually been uncharacteristically quiet for the electric car maker. This relative absence of drama despite waves of negative news about the company appears to have worked pretty well for TSLA stock, which has seen some stability in recent weeks. As of Monday this week, for example, Tesla stock was up 9% in September 2019.
-->According to Nomura Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle, part of this is due to the fact that the company is seemingly settling down and focusing its efforts on delivering solid results. Even Elon Musk, who was prone to engaging critics on Twitter last year during TSLA stock’s most volatile days, has been relatively silent, largely limiting his posts to comments about Tesla updates, the progress of SpaceX’s projects, and his trademark memes.
“This is exactly the kind of low-controversy execution that we and many investors have hoped to see from Tesla for some time. If the company can continue to hit both operational and financial targets, we see an opportunity to get more positive on Tesla shares in the future. North American demand appears solid and particularly robust on a market share basis. We continue to believe that consumer demand is a low-level concern,” he said.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +0.32% at $243.59.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
H/T Trader 53.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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