Investor's Corner
Tesla investor who predicted 2020 stock surge unloads shares
Tesla investor Gary Black, a former Bernstein analyst, has decided to offload his Tesla shares after accurately predicting the over 700% surge in the automaker’s stock price in 2020. Black announced this morning that the “absence of clear FY’21 delivery guidance,” and other factors were the reason for his decision.
Black posted a Tweet on Monday morning announcing that he has exited his TSLA positions after being a long-term shareholder since August 2019. In addition to Tesla’s undefined delivery guidance for 2021, “increased odds of a 1Q miss, and a more risky capital allocation policy/higher earnings variability were the primary factors,” he said.
Disclosure: I have exited my $TSLA positions after being long since August 2019. The absence of clear FY’21 delivery guidance, increased odds of a 1Q miss, and a more risky capital allocation policy/higher earnings variability were the primary factors.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
In other tweets, Black explained his distaste of the company’s decision to invest in Bitcoin. “It’s a small risk from a valuation standpoint,” he said. “On the other hand, it adds more volatility to TSLA’s earnings stream, and may highlight a change in risk tolerance within $TSLA.”
I have to think about it and will try to speak with the company. At a $1.5B maximum loss ($1.30/share), it’s a small risk from a valuation standpoint. On the other hand, it adds more volatility to TSLA’s earnings stream, and may highlight a change in risk tolerance within $TSLA.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
Black bought Tesla shares in August 2019 due to the expanding electric vehicle market, and Tesla had proven itself to be the most likely company to dominate the sector. With new vehicles that expanded across different segments, like the Cybertruck, Model Y crossover, and the Semi, along with the company’s expanding focus on battery production and affordability, it seemed like an ideal investment for Black to get involved with. He was right, as 2020 proved to be the company’s biggest year yet. It delivered just shy of 500,000 vehicles, produced over 509,000, and recorded profits in all four quarters.
Walking away with a tasty profit, Black says that he will look for a lower entry point to become a shareholder again. However, the lack of delivery guidance from Tesla during its Q4 2020 Earnings Call was something that didn’t sit well with some investors, Black being one of them.
Tesla is currently in the process of building two new production facilities: One in Germany and one in Texas. While both production plants are set to begin production in mid-2021, Tesla does not have a definitive start date for manufacturing or deliveries for either facility. Therefore, it is difficult for the company to outline an exact production or delivery rate.
The only concrete numbers Tesla offered during the Q4 Earnings session were located in its Shareholder Deck. It outlined Fremont and Giga Shanghai’s production of the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, with a combined rate of 1,050,000 cars per year.
Credit: Tesla
But, this does not mean that Tesla will deliver that many cars. The production rate can be looked at as a “best-case scenario,” meaning if there are no production halts, malfunctions in equipment, or revisions to production lines, Tesla would likely produce 1,050,000 cars. Some analysts, like Bill Selesky of Argus, have estimated what Tesla will produce and deliver in 2021. Argus said in a note to investors that it expects Tesla to produce 952,000 cars this year.
Black added more comments regarding the company’s decision to invest in Bitcoin, and wrote:
“I go back to my criticism of $TSLA earnings calls, which already stood out for their vagueness, lack of detail, and non-discussion of strategic priorities. If $TSLA purchased $1.5B in #bitcoin in January, why not share the logic with shareholders on the earnings call?”
2/ I go back to my criticism of $TSLA earnings calls, which already stood out for their vagueness, lack of detail, and non-discussion of strategic priorities. If $TSLA purchased $1.5B in #bitcoin in January, why not share the logic with shareholders on the earnings call?
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA shareholder.
Elon Musk
Tesla stock gets latest synopsis from Jim Cramer: ‘It’s actually a robotics company’
“Turns out it’s actually a robotics and Cybercab company, and I want to buy, buy, buy. Yes, Tesla’s the paper that turned into scissors in one session,” Cramer said.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got its latest synopsis from Wall Street analyst Jim Cramer, who finally realized something that many fans of the company have known all along: it’s not a car company. Instead, it’s a robotics company.
In a recent note that was released after Tesla reported Earnings in late January, Cramer seemed to recognize that the underwhelming financials and overall performance of the automotive division were not representative of the current state of affairs.
Instead, we’re seeing a company transition itself away from its early identity, essentially evolving like a caterpillar into a butterfly.
The narrative of the Earnings Call was simple: We’re not a car company, at least not from a birds-eye view. We’re an AI and Robotics company, and we are transitioning to this quicker than most people realize.
Tesla stock gets another analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like it
Tesla’s Q4 Earnings Call featured plenty of analysis from CEO Elon Musk and others, and some of the more minor details of the call were even indicative of a company that is moving toward AI instead of its cars. For example, the Model S and Model X will be no more after Q2, as Musk said that they serve relatively no purpose for the future.
Instead, Tesla is shifting its focus to the vehicles catered for autonomy and its Robotaxi and self-driving efforts.
Cramer recognizes this:
“…we got results from Tesla, which actually beat numbers, but nobody cares about the numbers here, as electric vehicles are the past. And according to CEO Elon Musk, the future of this company comes down to Cybercabs and humanoid robots. Stock fell more than 3% the next day. That may be because their capital expenditures budget was higher than expected, or maybe people wanted more details from the new businesses. At this point, I think Musk acolytes might be more excited about SpaceX, which is planning to come public later this year.”
He continued, highlighting the company’s true transition away from vehicles to its Cybercab, Optimus, and AI ambitions:
“I know it’s hard to believe how quickly this market can change its attitude. Last night, I heard a disastrous car company speak. Turns out it’s actually a robotics and Cybercab company, and I want to buy, buy, buy. Yes, Tesla’s the paper that turned into scissors in one session. I didn’t like it as a car company. Boy, I love it as a Cybercab and humanoid robot juggernaut. Call me a buyer and give me five robots while I’m at it.”
Cramer’s narrative seems to fit that of the most bullish Tesla investors. Anyone who is labeled a “permabull” has been echoing a similar sentiment over the past several years: Tesla is not a car company any longer.
Instead, the true focus is on the future and the potential that AI and Robotics bring to the company. It is truly difficult to put Tesla shares in the same group as companies like Ford, General Motors, and others.
Tesla shares are down less than half a percent at the time of publishing, trading at $423.69.
There are a lot of Tesla bulls out there who have astronomical expectations for the company, especially as its arm of reach has gone well past automotive and energy and entered artificial intelligence and robotics.
However, some of the most bullish Tesla investors believe the company could become worth $100 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk does not believe that number is completely out of the question, even if it sounds almost ridiculous.
To put that number into perspective, the top ten most valuable companies in the world — NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and Tesla — are worth roughly $26 trillion.
Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI
Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes the number is reasonable considering Tesla’s long-reaching industry ambitions:
“…in the world of AI, what do you have to have to win? You have to have proprietary data, and think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data. Tesla, the language of the road; Neuralink, multiomics data; nobody else has that data. X, nobody else has that data either. I could see $100 trillion. I think it’s going to happen because of convergence. I think Tesla is the leading candidate [for $100 trillion] for the reason I just said.”
Musk said late last year that all of his companies seem to be “heading toward convergence,” and it’s started to come to fruition. Tesla invested in xAI, as revealed in its Q4 Earnings Shareholder Deck, and SpaceX recently acquired xAI, marking the first step in the potential for a massive umbrella of companies under Musk’s watch.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
Now that it is happening, it seems Musk is even more enthusiastic about a massive valuation that would swell to nearly four-times the value of the top ten most valuable companies in the world currently, as he said on X, the idea of a $100 trillion valuation is “not impossible.”
It’s not impossible
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2026
Tesla is not just a car company. With its many projects, including the launch of Robotaxi, the progress of the Optimus robot, and its AI ambitions, it has the potential to continue gaining value at an accelerating rate.
Musk’s comments show his confidence in Tesla’s numerous projects, especially as some begin to mature and some head toward their initial stages.
Elon Musk
Tesla director pay lawsuit sees lawyer fees slashed by $100 million
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
The Delaware Supreme Court has cut more than $100 million from a legal fee award tied to a shareholder lawsuit challenging compensation paid to Tesla directors between 2017 and 2020.
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
Delaware Supreme Court trims legal fees
As noted in a Bloomberg Law report, the case targeted pay granted to Tesla directors, including CEO Elon Musk, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Kimbal Musk, and Rupert Murdoch. The Delaware Chancery Court had awarded $176 million to the plaintiffs. Tesla’s board must also return stock options and forego years worth of pay.
As per Chief Justice Collins J. Seitz Jr. in an opinion for the Delaware Supreme Court’s full five-member panel, however, the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court to award $176 million to a pension fund’s law firm “erred by including in its financial benefit analysis the intrinsic value” of options being returned by Tesla’s board.
The justices then reduced the fee award from $176 million to $70.9 million. “As we measure it, $71 million reflects a reasonable fee for counsel’s efforts and does not result in a windfall,” Chief Justice Seitz wrote.
Other settlement terms still intact
The Supreme Court upheld the settlement itself, which requires Tesla’s board to return stock and options valued at up to $735 million and to forgo three years of additional compensation worth about $184 million.
Tesla argued during oral arguments that a fee award closer to $70 million would be appropriate. Interestingly enough, back in October, Justice Karen L. Valihura noted that the $176 award was $60 million more than the Delaware judiciary’s budget from the previous year. This was quite interesting as the case was “settled midstream.”
The lawsuit was brought by a pension fund on behalf of Tesla shareholders and focused exclusively on director pay during the 2017–2020 period. The case is separate from other high-profile compensation disputes involving Elon Musk.
Tesla adds a new feature to Navigation in preparation for a new vehicle
Tesla stock gets latest synopsis from Jim Cramer: ‘It’s actually a robotics company’
