Investor's Corner
Tesla investor who predicted 2020 stock surge unloads shares
Tesla investor Gary Black, a former Bernstein analyst, has decided to offload his Tesla shares after accurately predicting the over 700% surge in the automaker’s stock price in 2020. Black announced this morning that the “absence of clear FY’21 delivery guidance,” and other factors were the reason for his decision.
Black posted a Tweet on Monday morning announcing that he has exited his TSLA positions after being a long-term shareholder since August 2019. In addition to Tesla’s undefined delivery guidance for 2021, “increased odds of a 1Q miss, and a more risky capital allocation policy/higher earnings variability were the primary factors,” he said.
Disclosure: I have exited my $TSLA positions after being long since August 2019. The absence of clear FY’21 delivery guidance, increased odds of a 1Q miss, and a more risky capital allocation policy/higher earnings variability were the primary factors.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
In other tweets, Black explained his distaste of the company’s decision to invest in Bitcoin. “It’s a small risk from a valuation standpoint,” he said. “On the other hand, it adds more volatility to TSLA’s earnings stream, and may highlight a change in risk tolerance within $TSLA.”
I have to think about it and will try to speak with the company. At a $1.5B maximum loss ($1.30/share), it’s a small risk from a valuation standpoint. On the other hand, it adds more volatility to TSLA’s earnings stream, and may highlight a change in risk tolerance within $TSLA.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
Black bought Tesla shares in August 2019 due to the expanding electric vehicle market, and Tesla had proven itself to be the most likely company to dominate the sector. With new vehicles that expanded across different segments, like the Cybertruck, Model Y crossover, and the Semi, along with the company’s expanding focus on battery production and affordability, it seemed like an ideal investment for Black to get involved with. He was right, as 2020 proved to be the company’s biggest year yet. It delivered just shy of 500,000 vehicles, produced over 509,000, and recorded profits in all four quarters.
Walking away with a tasty profit, Black says that he will look for a lower entry point to become a shareholder again. However, the lack of delivery guidance from Tesla during its Q4 2020 Earnings Call was something that didn’t sit well with some investors, Black being one of them.
Tesla is currently in the process of building two new production facilities: One in Germany and one in Texas. While both production plants are set to begin production in mid-2021, Tesla does not have a definitive start date for manufacturing or deliveries for either facility. Therefore, it is difficult for the company to outline an exact production or delivery rate.
The only concrete numbers Tesla offered during the Q4 Earnings session were located in its Shareholder Deck. It outlined Fremont and Giga Shanghai’s production of the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, with a combined rate of 1,050,000 cars per year.
Credit: Tesla
But, this does not mean that Tesla will deliver that many cars. The production rate can be looked at as a “best-case scenario,” meaning if there are no production halts, malfunctions in equipment, or revisions to production lines, Tesla would likely produce 1,050,000 cars. Some analysts, like Bill Selesky of Argus, have estimated what Tesla will produce and deliver in 2021. Argus said in a note to investors that it expects Tesla to produce 952,000 cars this year.
Black added more comments regarding the company’s decision to invest in Bitcoin, and wrote:
“I go back to my criticism of $TSLA earnings calls, which already stood out for their vagueness, lack of detail, and non-discussion of strategic priorities. If $TSLA purchased $1.5B in #bitcoin in January, why not share the logic with shareholders on the earnings call?”
2/ I go back to my criticism of $TSLA earnings calls, which already stood out for their vagueness, lack of detail, and non-discussion of strategic priorities. If $TSLA purchased $1.5B in #bitcoin in January, why not share the logic with shareholders on the earnings call?
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 8, 2021
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA shareholder.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
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