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Tesla will likely meet Model 3 production guidance for Q3, says TSLA skeptic

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There is no denying that Tesla’s goals for the third quarter of 2018 are ambitious. After achieving its then-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of Q2 2018, Tesla immediately set its sights on a bigger target. In terms of Model 3 production and deliveries, Tesla noted that it was aiming to manufacture and deliver more than 50,000 units of the electric car in Q3 2018. 

If Tesla’s ongoing delivery blitz is any indication, it appears that the electric car maker is attempting to deliver as many vehicles to reservation holders as possible before the quarter ends. This weekend alone, Tesla opted to accept help from volunteer owners who offered to assist in deliveries by conducting new customer orientations. Elon Musk later noted on a Twitter post that Tesla is now in the process of building its own car carriers to help address bottlenecks in the transportation of electric cars from the Fremont factory to delivery centers across the United States.

Amidst Tesla’s delivery blitz, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, a known skeptic of the electric car maker, issued a somewhat positive estimate about the company’s delivery figures this third quarter. While Tamberrino maintained his Sell rating on Tesla, and while he kept a conservative $210 price target for TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), he stated in a recent note that the electric car maker would likely deliver 27,500 Model S and X and about 52,000 Model 3 in Q3 2018. The analyst further noted that Tesla’s deliveries would likely exceed his estimates, considering that the company had more than 11,000 vehicles en route to customers at the end of Q2.

Production-wise, the Goldman Sachs analyst stated that he expects Tesla to meet its Model 3 production target. Tamberrino did note, though, that Model 3 production figures will likely be on the lower end of Tesla’s 50,000-55,000 range. Tamberrino also stated that while the Model S and X delivery cadence is below the numbers implied by the company’s guidance of 100,000 units per year, Model S and X figures this Q3 will likely be better than FactSet and consensus estimates.

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Earlier this month, Elon Musk teased in a letter to Tesla employees that the company is about to have a record quarter, “building and delivering more than twice as many cars as (it) did” in Q2 2018. Tesla board member Kimbal Musk further noted in a CNBC Closing Bell segment that “it’s really gonna blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just the next couple of weeks.”

Tesla is a newcomer in the US auto industry, and as such, it still has a lot of learning to do before it masters the auto business. While the company is still pretty much in startup mode today, its growth over the past decade has been remarkable. Exactly ten years ago, for example, Tesla was still a struggling electric car maker that has only been able to build 27 units of the original Tesla Roadster. By the end of September 2008, Tesla completed three more vehicles, producing a total of 30 Roadsters. This year, Tesla is expecting to deliver 100,000 units of Model S and X alone.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up 0.15% at $300.13 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

NASA taps SpaceX to launch the telescope that could unlock new worlds

NASA’s Roman Space Telescope heads to orbit this August aboard SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy with massive scientific ambitions.

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SpaceX is set to play a central role in one of NASA’s most anticipated science missions in years. The company’s Falcon Heavy rocket, currently the most powerful operational launch vehicle in the world, will carry the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope into orbit on August 30 from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Roman is now in final preparations inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility, where on June 26 technicians used a crane to lift the observatory into a specialized stand for fueling and pre-launch testing.

Roman is named after Nancy Grace Roman, NASA’s first chief of astronomy, whose career helped shape how the agency approaches space science.

NASA chose SpaceX Falcon Heavy because of Roman’s needs to reach a specific orbit far from Earth, well beyond where a standard Falcon 9 can deliver it. The Falcon Heavy, which first flew in 2018, has since become NASA’s go-to option for missions that need serious muscle without the cost and complexity of older launch systems.

Celebrating SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy Tesla Roadster launch, seven years later (Op-Ed)

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Roman will carry a field of view at least 100 times wider than the Hubble Space Telescope, meaning it can photograph enormous swaths of the universe in a single shot rather than the narrow slices Hubble captures. That difference in scale is significant. While Hubble reshaped our understanding of the cosmos over 30 years, Roman is built to work faster and wider, surveying hundreds of millions of galaxies at once.

One of Roman’s most compelling capabilities is its potential to discover and photograph planets orbiting stars outside our solar system, and with enough precision to directly image planets that would otherwise be lost. That means scientists could study the atmosphere and surface characteristics of distant worlds rather than simply confirming they exist. Combined with Roman’s sweeping field of view, the telescope could detect thousands of exoplanets, and some of those planets may be in habitable zones where liquid water could exist. No telescope currently in operation has this level of power and capability. That capability alone could change what we know about other worlds, and perhaps finally answer the question: are we the only intelligent lifeforms in existence? 

What Roman actually finds once it reaches orbit is an open question, and that is exactly what makes this launch worth watching.

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California snubs Tesla in its newly passed EV incentive that favors Rivian and Lucid

California passed a $135 million EV incentive that rewards Rivian and Lucid while sidelining Tesla

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California just drew a line in the EV incentive sand to put Tesla on the wrong side of it. The state recently passed a $135 million program offering first-time electric vehicle buyers a direct incentive with no application required, but the rules were written in a way that leaves Tesla at a structural disadvantage compared to Rivian and Lucid.

The program caps eligible vehicles at $50,000 for new EVs and $25,000 for used ones. That pricing threshold rules out a significant portion of Tesla’s lineup, though some lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y configurations would still qualify. California-based automakers are exempt from the price cap entirely, regardless of what their vehicles cost. Rivian, headquartered in Irvine, and Lucid, based in the San Francisco Bay Area, both benefit from that exemption. Rivian’s R2 starts at roughly $45,000 but has versions above the cap. Lucid’s Air and Gravity start at $70,990 and $79,990 respectively, well above any threshold a non-California company would face.

California hits Tesla Cybercab and Robotaxi driverless cars with new law

Tesla built its reputation and a significant portion of its early market share in California, where EV adoption has consistently led the nation. The company operates its original factory in Fremont, California, and the state was home to Tesla’s headquarters for most of its existence. That changed in 2021 when Tesla moved its corporate headquarters to Austin, Texas. Since then, the relationship between the company and California Governor Gavin Newsom has been openly adversarial, with Musk and Newsom trading public criticism on multiple occasions.

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California’s EV incentive landscape has shifted repeatedly in recent years, and Tesla has previously lost eligibility for state-level programs as its vehicles exceeded income-adjusted price thresholds. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit, which Tesla models have qualified for and lost depending on policy cycles, is no longer available after it expired without renewal, making state-level programs more meaningful to buyers than they have been in years.

The practical impact for buyers is more nuanced than the headline suggests. California residents purchasing a Tesla under $50,000 for the first time can still access the incentive. But the exemption written for California-based manufacturers is a structural advantage that rewards where a company plants its headquarters flag rather than where it builds its products, and Tesla moved that flag to Texas.

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SpaceX’s newest logo confirms everything about what it’s become

SpaceX officially absorbed xAI under the SpaceXAI brand, completing the largest private merger in history.

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SpaceX made its corporate transformation official in May 2026 when Elon Musk posted on X that xAI would cease to exist as a standalone company. “xAI will be dissolved as a separate company, so it will just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX,” he wrote.

A new SpaceXAI logo was announced today, visually embedding the xAI letters inside the SpaceX identity, which can be seen as a deliberate design choice that signals the merger is not a partnership but a full absorption and XAi a core function of the same company. The same way Starlink is not a separate brand but a SpaceX product. The announcement closed the loop on a process that began February 2, 2026, when SpaceX acquired xAI in the largest private merger in history, valued at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion.


The reason SpaceX bought xAI was stated plainly by Musk at the time of the deal: to build orbital data centers. SpaceX had simultaneously filed with the FCC to launch up to one million satellites designed to function as AI compute nodes in low Earth orbit, escaping what Musk described as the energy constraints limiting AI development on Earth.

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xAI provided the AI software stack, with Grok, the X platform, and the Colossus supercomputer infrastructure in Memphis with over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs, while SpaceX provided the rockets, Starlink, and the capital base to fund it. The two companies needed each other. xAI was burning $2.5 billion in losses on $250 million in revenue. SpaceX was generating an estimated $8 billion in profit on $15 billion in revenue and needed an AI narrative to command the valuation it was targeting for its IPO.

SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app

What SpaceX has done, regardless of how the orbital AI vision ultimately plays out, is walk into a public market as something no company has been before: a rocket manufacturer, satellite internet provider, AI software company, social media platform, and supercomputer operator under one ticker. Whether that combination is worth $2 trillion depends entirely on which of those businesses you believe in most.

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