Investor's Corner
Tesla will likely meet Model 3 production guidance for Q3, says TSLA skeptic
There is no denying that Tesla’s goals for the third quarter of 2018 are ambitious. After achieving its then-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of Q2 2018, Tesla immediately set its sights on a bigger target. In terms of Model 3 production and deliveries, Tesla noted that it was aiming to manufacture and deliver more than 50,000 units of the electric car in Q3 2018.
If Tesla’s ongoing delivery blitz is any indication, it appears that the electric car maker is attempting to deliver as many vehicles to reservation holders as possible before the quarter ends. This weekend alone, Tesla opted to accept help from volunteer owners who offered to assist in deliveries by conducting new customer orientations. Elon Musk later noted on a Twitter post that Tesla is now in the process of building its own car carriers to help address bottlenecks in the transportation of electric cars from the Fremont factory to delivery centers across the United States.
Amidst Tesla’s delivery blitz, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, a known skeptic of the electric car maker, issued a somewhat positive estimate about the company’s delivery figures this third quarter. While Tamberrino maintained his Sell rating on Tesla, and while he kept a conservative $210 price target for TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), he stated in a recent note that the electric car maker would likely deliver 27,500 Model S and X and about 52,000 Model 3 in Q3 2018. The analyst further noted that Tesla’s deliveries would likely exceed his estimates, considering that the company had more than 11,000 vehicles en route to customers at the end of Q2.
Production-wise, the Goldman Sachs analyst stated that he expects Tesla to meet its Model 3 production target. Tamberrino did note, though, that Model 3 production figures will likely be on the lower end of Tesla’s 50,000-55,000 range. Tamberrino also stated that while the Model S and X delivery cadence is below the numbers implied by the company’s guidance of 100,000 units per year, Model S and X figures this Q3 will likely be better than FactSet and consensus estimates.
Earlier this month, Elon Musk teased in a letter to Tesla employees that the company is about to have a record quarter, “building and delivering more than twice as many cars as (it) did” in Q2 2018. Tesla board member Kimbal Musk further noted in a CNBC Closing Bell segment that “it’s really gonna blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just the next couple of weeks.”
Tesla is a newcomer in the US auto industry, and as such, it still has a lot of learning to do before it masters the auto business. While the company is still pretty much in startup mode today, its growth over the past decade has been remarkable. Exactly ten years ago, for example, Tesla was still a struggling electric car maker that has only been able to build 27 units of the original Tesla Roadster. By the end of September 2008, Tesla completed three more vehicles, producing a total of 30 Roadsters. This year, Tesla is expecting to deliver 100,000 units of Model S and X alone.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up 0.15% at $300.13 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla challenges startups to score a gig inside its most advanced European factory
Tesla is challenging startups to bring their best battery tech directly to Gigafactory Berlin.
Tesla has issued an open challenge to startups across Europe, inviting them to bring their best battery technology directly to the floor of Gigafactory Berlin. The program, called the JUNI x Tesla Battery Cell Giga Challenge, opened applications this month with a deadline of July 24, 2026, and is targeting startups with solutions that can make battery cell manufacturing faster, cheaper, safer, and more scalable at an industrial level.
The timing of the challenge is directly tied to Tesla’s most aggressive European battery investment yet. On May 12, 2026, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig announced a $250 million investment to scale the factory’s annual 4680 cell production capacity from 8 GWh to 18 GWh, more than doubling the previous target set just months earlier in December 2025. Thierig confirmed the expansion on X, saying the investment “will enable 18 GWh of annual 4680 cell production and create more than 1,500 new jobs.” Combined with a previously announced battery investment at the Grunheide site now approaches $1.2 billion.
Today, we announced a $ 250m investment for our Giga Berlin Cell factory. This will enable 18GWh of annual 4680 cell production and create more than 1500 new jobs. Good news during challenging times for the German industry. pic.twitter.com/ou4SWMfWh9
— André Thierig (@AndrThie) May 12, 2026
The challenge is looking specifically for startups with proven solutions across five categories: materials, equipment, operations, automation, and artificial intelligence. Applications are screened directly by Tesla’s cell manufacturing team in Grunheide, and the strongest submissions move through technical discussions, a pitch day in front of Tesla stakeholders, and potentially a paid pilot project with the cell team. Tesla is not looking for ideas at concept stage. The program requires applicants to demonstrate working prototypes, test data, or prior pilots before being considered.
The historical context matters here. Elon Musk first announced plans for what he called the world’s largest battery cell production facility alongside the Giga Berlin car factory back in 2020, targeting up to 250 GWh of annual capacity. Those plans were shelved in 2022 when Tesla shifted its battery investment focus to the United States to take advantage of Inflation Reduction Act incentives. The revival of cell production at Giga Berlin, now backed by over $1 billion in committed capital, represents a return to an ambition that was set aside for three years. As Teslarati has reported, the 4680 format is central to Tesla’s long-term cost reduction strategy across vehicles, energy storage, including the Tesla Semi and Cybercab.
By opening the challenge to outside startups, Tesla is acknowledging that reaching 18 GWh at Grunheide will require technology it does not currently have in-house, and it is willing to pay for the right solutions. For a startup in the battery supply chain, a paid pilot with Tesla’s European cell team is as close to a direct commercial path as the industry offers.
Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.
Tesla reported it delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, ANNIHILATING Wall Street expectations of 406,000. Production was reported at 451,758.
Deliveries:
Model 3/Y: 467,762
Other Models: 12,364Production:
Model 3/Y: 442,936
Other Models: 8,822 https://t.co/TTHwQAsKt8 pic.twitter.com/7qI4Zj6FE5— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.
Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.
For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.
Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.
Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing
The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.
Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Tesla flexes how it will help the blind with Cybercab
Tesla challenges startups to score a gig inside its most advanced European factory
