Investor's Corner
Tesla’s (TSLA) Q2 2019 earnings call with Elon Musk set for July 24
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced that it would be posting its financial results for Q2 2019 after the market closes on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The company would be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its Q2 2019 Update Letter, which will be accessible from Tesla’s Investor Relations website. A live Q&A session is set for 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial results and outlook.
Analysts polled by FactSet currently expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $0.45 per share on sales of $6.6 billion in the second quarter, which compares favorably with an adjusted loss of $3.06 per share on sales of $4 billion in Q2 2018. So far, the rather early earnings call date appears to have been received well by the market, with Tesla shares trading 1.81% at $242.91 per share as of writing.
Tesla’s financial results for the second quarter are up for question, considering that Elon Musk has mentioned that Q2 2019 could see a loss once more. Nevertheless, expectations are high that Tesla’s finances in Q2 will be more palatable compared to the company’s first-quarter results, which showed a loss of $702 million, thanks in part to delivery difficulties to international markets such as Europe and China. These challenges were expected to have been mostly addressed in the second quarter, paving the way for a potential return to profitability in Q3 2019.
Quite interestingly, Tesla’s rather early second-quarter earnings call announcement comes amidst news of challenges being faced by companies considered as the Silicon Valley-based carmaker’s rivals in the EV market. Among these is NIO, widely called the “Tesla of China,” which is seeing some roadblocks in its momentum. NIO had a promising start in 2018, but recent months have been difficult for the company, as reflected in the electric car maker’s slumping sales, the departure of US CEO Padmasree Warrior, and concerns about the quality of the company’s vehicles. These challenges have been reflected in NIO’s stock price, which has declined 42% since its IPO in September.
Fellow Chinese EV startup Seres (formerly known as SF Motors), at one point also deemed a potential rival to Tesla, was racked with a round of layoffs for its US staff. The company had employed about 300 people in Santa Clara as it planned a potential US launch for its first electric vehicle, the all-electric SF5 SUV. But at a recent staff meeting, the company announced that it would be laying off 90 employees at its US headquarters in Santa Clara.
BMW, which is trying to get its momentum back in the electric car market, also faces some challenges with its freshly unveiled Mini Electric. The vehicle, which actually looks pretty fun, has notably underwhelming specs, with a paltry 146 miles of range, a starting price of $35,000, and technology that’s primarily based on the aging i3, a competitor of the early versions of the Model S. This is far below the bar set by vehicles like the Tesla Model 3 Standard Plus, which starts just below $40,000, but has 240 miles of range and standard features like Autopilot.
These challenges faced by young companies like NIO and veterans like BMW show that the electric car segment, which Tesla has survived in for 16 years now, is becoming a very tough business to crack. With other companies like Kia and Hyundai coming up with low-priced EVs that are bang for the buck like the Niro EV and Kona Electric, and with Tesla widening its lead over the competition with the Model 3, the electric car segment is only bound to get more competitive. It wouldn’t be surprising to see companies with weaker hands get shaken off in the coming years.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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