Investor's Corner
Tesla price targets drop for varying reasons, but some feel like a reach
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) price targets were dropped by several firms due to varying reasons, but some feel like a reach.
It is no secret Tesla stock has been beaten and battered so far this year. As of February 6, shares are down over 25 percent, and the slide truly started to get intense after the company’s Q4 Earnings Call.
While some analysts called the call “a trainwreck,” others’ focuses were on a wide variety of issues. Some of them that were spoken of were Tesla’s lack of annual guidance, no narrative on price cuts, and a general lack of strategy.
Shares felt the pressure shortly after the call, but firms are still trying to grasp their outlook for the stock as Tesla will navigate what it calls the middle of “two growth waves” as it prepares to launch the next-gen platform sometime in 2025.
Piper Sandler Blames ‘Aging Product Lineup’
Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter said in a note to investors that more price cuts are likely to take place across Tesla’s vehicles in the future because of an “aging product lineup.”
Earlier in this article, I discussed some reasons for price target downgrades feeling like a reach. This is one of them.
Tesla has done things differently than a lot of traditional car companies, but when you think about its models, there are a few things that the automaker does in a similar fashion.
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A lot of OEMs keep the same nameplates on cars for years, updating the looks and tech to offer what feels like a “new” product and encourage buyers to purchase an “updated” version. The Civic, for example, is just one of many vehicles to be developed in “generations,” and every few years, it gets a new look and some new features.
Tesla is doing that with the Model 3 with the release of the “Highland,” if that is what it can be referred to as. The Model S and Model X were updated just a few years ago, and the Model Y is currently in the process of an update as well, according to reports.
Tesla also just launched the Cybertruck in November, and it has started deliveries.
It is tough to say that it feels like Tesla’s product lineup is “aging,” at least from my perspective, because:
- The vehicles constantly get better and change through software updates
- Three of the four vehicles in Tesla’s lineup that have been around for more than a year have either been updated or are relatively new. The Model S and Model X were updated in 2021, the Model 3 in late 2023, and the Model Y is only a few years old.
Price cuts from Tesla are more than likely not a result of an “aging product,” but likely to find a sweet spot for demand triggers.
Musk said last year that prices truly depend on market conditions and that the company thinks it “makes sense to sacrifice margins in favor of making more vehicles.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says risky margin sacrifice ‘makes sense’ to up production
Price cuts seem to be more focused on getting cars out of the door and less on incentivizing people to buy an aging product.
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Potter trimmed his price target to $225 from $295.
Daiwa Worries About Tesla Governance
Daiwa Securities downgraded Tesla stock to Neutral from Outperform and trimmed its price target to $195 from $245.
Analysts at the firm state that Tesla’s increasing focus on governance concerns could limit the company’s propensity to invest in the long term and could hinder innovation. It did state that long-term investors could be rewarded, but they should be prepared for increased volatility.
Most of the governance issues stem from Musk losing his compensation package after a Delaware Chancery Court Judge ruled it was unfair to Tesla investors, despite the pay package being approved by those shareholders several years ago.
Vivek Ramaswamy calls Elon Musk’s Tesla pay package situation ‘a threat to capitalism’
As a result of the decision, Tesla has hinted it could ditch Delaware for its state of incorporation and head to Texas instead, where its headquarters is located.
Tesla shares are up 1.23 percent today as of 11:40 a.m. on the East Coast.
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Disclosure: I own Tesla stock.
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SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck production snaps back after ugly supplier fight
Cybertrucks are piling up again at Giga Texas after Tesla’s court win against a parts supplier.
Cybertruck production at Giga Texas is showing its first visible recovery since Tesla sued a supplier last month over withheld manufacturing tooling.
Aerial observer Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the Austin factory Wednesday morning and counted roughly 100 or more Cybertrucks filling the outbound lot, a sharp jump from the thin numbers seen in recent weeks. The flyover came a day after a judge granted Tesla a temporary restraining order against Angstrom Automotive Group, the parts supplier at the center of the dispute.
Tesla filed an emergency lawsuit in late July after Angstrom told the automaker it planned to close the Troy, Texas facility where Tesla’s die-cast tools, trim dies and other Cybertruck stamping equipment were housed. According to Tesla’s complaint, a shipment of 700 finished parts never left the building, and when Tesla sent representatives to retrieve its equipment, accompanied by law enforcement, they were turned away. Angstrom allegedly then asked for an extra $250,000 a week to keep operating, which Tesla’s filing described as holding its own property for ransom.
TESLA: U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Wolfe of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, Waco Division granted Tesla a Temporary Restraining Order and Writ of Replevin in its dispute with Angstrom Automotive (Case No. 6:26-cv-00477).
The order authorizes… https://t.co/E1DKcQSxMn pic.twitter.com/LR8aAiV2Og
— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) August 5, 2026
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The restraining order gives Tesla immediate right of entry to Angstrom’s facility to recover the tooling. It is temporary, with a fuller hearing still to come, but the speed of Wednesday’s rebound suggests the Angstrom shortage was indeed the main bottleneck limiting Cybertruck output. Outbound lot counts are an imperfect measure of actual production, since finished trucks can sit for days before shipping, but a lot that full after a lean stretch is a meaningful signal.
Cybertruck output at Giga Texas has fluctuated all year as Tesla worked through supply issues and introduced new trims, including a cheaper Dual Motor AWD version that drew strong early demand.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
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CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
Elon Musk and SpaceX shrugs off the trading day Wall Street feared most
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