Investor's Corner
Tesla bull Ives expects ‘across the board’ Q3 Earnings Beat following record deliveries
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects the electric automaker to deliver an “across the board” Earnings Call beat on Wednesday after reporting record deliveries earlier this month.
Tesla reported in early October that it had delivered 241,300 vehicles in Q3, a record for the company. Deliveries mostly consisted of Tesla’s mass-market Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. However, following the initial deliveries of the Model X Refresh, which began last weekend, Tesla now has its full vehicle lineup once again.
The return of Tesla’s flagship SUV to the vehicle lineup bodes well for Tesla’s future production capacity and delivery figures. Ives believes the pace of Tesla’s growth, which is supported by Quarter-over-Quarter delivery records and the expansion of sales in China, primes the company to report another Earnings beat in every important metric on Wednesday.
Tesla stock (TSLA) is roaring forward as Q3 2021 earnings approaches
“The strength was driven by robust Model 3/Y sales of 232k vs. the Street of 211k, with Model S/X of 9k vs. the Street’s 10k. Total production in the quarter was 238k and was roughly 10k ahead of our and Street estimates,” Ives wrote in the note. “Taking a step back with the chip shortage, a major overhang on the auto space, and logistical issues globally, these numbers combined with this week’s likely earnings beat speaks to an EV demand trajectory that looks quite robust for Tesla heading into 4Q and 2022,” Ives added.
-->Tesla’s ability to navigate the global chip and semiconductor shortage has continued to astound analysts across the sector. Tesla is one of the few automakers to not have their production output hinder as a result of the chip shortages, which have hindered many automakers’ sales in 2021, driving up the prices of new and used cars this year.
Outside of the U.S., Tesla is also experiencing healthy demand and sales, especially in China. “We believe China demand rebounded in the quarter and is a clear indicator of the step-up in EV demand taking place globally with China leading the way,” Ives wrote. “While there are many competitors in the EV space, Tesla continues to dominate market share as evidenced again this quarter while battling through the chip shortage and now is seeing rebounding China demand after facing headwinds earlier this year.”
Wedbush anticipates China will represent 40%+ of global deliveries for Tesla next year. China is perhaps Tesla’s most crucial region for the longer-term bull thesis, as well as broader EV demand, Ives continued in the note.
Tesla’s Q3 2021 Earnings Call will take place on Wednesday, October 20th, at market close. A Shareholder Deck will first be released, with the Earnings Call with Tesla executives taking place at around 5:30 PM EDT, 2:30 PM PDT.
Ives is ranked 23 out of 7,701 analysts on TipRanks. He holds a $1,000 price target on Tesla stock and a “Buy” position.
-->Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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