Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 Earnings tempers analysts outlook as price targets lower
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Earnings tempered analyst outlooks on the electric automaker’s stock as one firm referred to the call as a “mini disaster,” and another questioned whether shares could be looked at from a growth perspective as CEO Elon Musk advised investors that the company would take a cautious attitude toward the future with uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Tesla’s Q3 2023 Earnings Call was one of the most cautious and perhaps worrisome in years as the automaker admitted high-interest rates and future projects could yield what would be looked at as less-than-favorable for short-term investors.
Long-term Tesla permabulls could not be shaken from their firm stance that the company is set for monumental growth moving forward, and how could they? Musk continued to speak positively about overall growth for Tesla in terms of autonomy, AI, and cell production.
However, analysts are adjusting their 12-month price targets on the stock as Musk’s tone during the call was cautious and aware of the rough waters that lie ahead.
“I’m not saying things will be bad. I’m just saying they might be,” Musk said during the Call. “And I think like Tesla is an incredibly capable ship, but we need to make sure like as…if the macroeconomic conditions are stormy, even if the best ship is still going to have tough times. The weaker ships will sink.”
Musk acknowledged the rough waters that likely lie ahead for the Tesla ship, and waves will consist of high-interest rate environments, which will temper demand for its vehicles as consumers struggle to keep up with inflation and lengthy waits for Cybertruck to contribute positive cash flow for the company.
“We have seen the highest highs and some very challenging times from Tesla and Musk over the last decade, with last night’s quarter and conference call not an inspiring one for the bulls,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a note.
“In a nutshell, we would characterize last night’s conference call as a ‘mini disaster’ as the Street wanted to get their arms around the falling margins and constant price cuts seen globally, but instead, we heard from a much more cautious Musk which focused on higher interest rates, FSD/AI investments, and highlighting the difficult path for Cybertruck production over the next 12 to 18 months.”
Ives pushed Wedbush’s price target on Tesla down to $310 from $350, citing a “more cautionary near-term dynamic for Musk & Co.”
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley shared similar sentiments, adjusting his price target from $400 to $380.
“How can we be overweight [on] Tesla despite the company’s caution on macro, consumer, Cybertruck and Mexico? Can a ‘growth stock’ work if earnings don’t grow in 2024?” he wrote.
Jonas and fellow Morgan Stanley associates characterized the call as “one of the most cautious Tesla conference calls we’ve heard in years.”
Musk announced that not only would Cybertruck confront Tesla with “enormous challenges” in terms of the initial production ramp and becoming cash flow positive, but that Gigafactory Mexico won’t be a “full tilt” effort until the global economic outlook becomes more stable.
It was not all bad. Model Y is trending to be the best-selling car in terms of revenue and unit value, Autopilot has driven over 500 million miles with Full Self-Driving beta, and energy storage was robust for the quarter. Cybertruck even got a date for the first deliveries, November 30.
However, analysts advise investors to be more cautious as Tesla will have more challenges over the next year. As Tesla is not immune to ones that will impact the global markets, and Musk’s cautionary tone for the Call was indicative of the tumultuous waters the automaker will face moving into 2024 and beyond.
Disclosure: Joey Klender owns Tesla stock.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla short sellers won big following the company’s massive fall on Wall Street after it reported subpar Earnings on Wednesday.
Tesla short sellers collected about $4.12 billion in single-day profits on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. Shares fell as much as 15 percent during Thursday’s session. It closed as one of the worst days for Tesla on Wall Street in the past three years.
Investors sold off the stock after Tesla said it would aggressively direct its spending toward AI and its Optimus robot project. The company had record revenues, which were driven by one of the strongest quarters in terms of vehicle deliveries in company history.
However, it missed EPS estimates by reporting just $0.33, a far cry from the $0.53 analysts expected.
S3 Partners reported that about 3 percent of Tesla’s outstanding stock is sold short. Managing Director at S3, Ihor Dusaniwsky, provided the short seller’s potential profit, as well as another figure: shorts have likely had paper gains of $8.92 billion this year, as Tesla shares are down 30 percent in 2026.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla has burned short sellers many times in the past, but the company’s latest Earnings Call was a chance for those skeptics to taste some payback. Although the company gave some very transparent information regarding future projects, the rollout of Robotaxi, Optimus, and Semi, many investors took their profits on Thursday.
Notable short sellers like Michael Burry have been transparent about their skepticism around Tesla shares. Burry just revealed three weeks ago that he had opened up a new short on the stock, stating he shorted Tesla shares at $416.22. “Happy it jumped back to this level,” he said in a blog post.
At the time of publication, Tesla shares were down about 3 percent and the stock was trading at $309.92.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) endured one of its sharpest single-day declines in years on July 23, tumbling approximately 14.5 percent and closing near $320 after opening the session around $374. The drop erased more than $140 billion in market value amid heavy trading volume and left the shares at multi-week lows.
The sell-off followed the company’s second-quarter 2026 results, released the previous evening. Tesla reported record revenue of $28.2 billion, up 26 percent year over year, driven by a Q2-record 480,126 vehicle deliveries. Energy storage deployments also rose strongly.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Yet profitability disappointed sharply. Operating income fell 57 percent to $398 million, compressing the operating margin to just 1.4 percent. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.33, well below the roughly $0.53 analysts had expected. Free cash flow turned negative by $1.1 billion as capital expenditures surged 142 percent to $5.8 billion, largely tied to accelerated spending on artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems.
The losses on capex were expected, as Tesla said it would be spending heavily in 2026.
Investors also reacted to lingering uncertainty surrounding key product timelines. During the Earnings Call, management reiterated ambitions for Robotaxi deployment and the Optimus humanoid robot, but offered limited new concrete milestones, renewing questions about execution pace that have long accompanied Tesla’s ambitious roadmap.
The magnitude of the decline places it among Tesla’s more severe one-day percentage losses since its 2010 initial public offering. Historically, the two largest single-day drops (split-adjusted) remain September 8, 2020, when shares fell 21.1 percent amid broader market volatility and valuation concerns, and January 13, 2012, with a 19.3 percent plunge during the company’s early growth struggles.
Other notable declines include an 18.6 percent drop on March 16, 2020, at the onset of pandemic-related market turmoil. Thursday’s move ranks roughly ninth on the all-time list but stands out as the steepest in more than a year.
Despite the short-term pain, Tesla’s long-term trajectory has repeatedly recovered from such volatility. The latest results underscore both the strength of its core automotive and energy businesses and the near-term costs of heavy investment in next-generation technologies.
In a striking revelation that underscores the lucrative crossover between Big Tech and space exploration, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, disclosed a massive $94.1 billion equity stake in SpaceX following the rocket company’s blockbuster initial public offering earlier this year.
The disclosure came in Alphabet’s quarterly filing, marking the first time the long-held private investment has been publicly valued at market prices. Google was an early backer, investing alongside Fidelity in 2015 with roughly $500-900 million at a time when SpaceX was valued around $12 billion.
That bet has delivered extraordinary returns, roughly a hundredfold, transforming a strategic play on satellite internet and launch capabilities into one of Alphabet’s largest assets.
Google, $GOOGL, has said they hold $94 billion in SpaceX, $SPCX, shares after IPO.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 23, 2026
Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.
The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.
Analysts view the disclosure as validation of Alphabet’s venture strategy beyond its core search and cloud businesses. The investment aligns with deeper ties, including reported multi-billion-dollar deals for AI computing capacity on SpaceX infrastructure. As SpaceX advances Starship flights, Starlink expansion, and ambitious Mars goals under Elon Musk, Google’s stake positions it to benefit from the commercialization of space.
For Alphabet, the windfall highlights how patient, forward-looking bets in transformative sectors can yield outsized rewards. While lockups temper short-term impact, the holding cements SpaceX as a cornerstone of Alphabet’s diversified portfolio in an era where aerospace, AI, and connectivity increasingly intersect. Investors will watch closely as restrictions lift and SpaceX’s public performance unfolds.
Tesla short sellers win big after shares fall after earnings
Tesla door handle saga gets its latest chapter and a big change is coming
