Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 Earnings tempers analysts outlook as price targets lower
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Earnings tempered analyst outlooks on the electric automaker’s stock as one firm referred to the call as a “mini disaster,” and another questioned whether shares could be looked at from a growth perspective as CEO Elon Musk advised investors that the company would take a cautious attitude toward the future with uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Tesla’s Q3 2023 Earnings Call was one of the most cautious and perhaps worrisome in years as the automaker admitted high-interest rates and future projects could yield what would be looked at as less-than-favorable for short-term investors.
Long-term Tesla permabulls could not be shaken from their firm stance that the company is set for monumental growth moving forward, and how could they? Musk continued to speak positively about overall growth for Tesla in terms of autonomy, AI, and cell production.
However, analysts are adjusting their 12-month price targets on the stock as Musk’s tone during the call was cautious and aware of the rough waters that lie ahead.
“I’m not saying things will be bad. I’m just saying they might be,” Musk said during the Call. “And I think like Tesla is an incredibly capable ship, but we need to make sure like as…if the macroeconomic conditions are stormy, even if the best ship is still going to have tough times. The weaker ships will sink.”
Musk acknowledged the rough waters that likely lie ahead for the Tesla ship, and waves will consist of high-interest rate environments, which will temper demand for its vehicles as consumers struggle to keep up with inflation and lengthy waits for Cybertruck to contribute positive cash flow for the company.
“We have seen the highest highs and some very challenging times from Tesla and Musk over the last decade, with last night’s quarter and conference call not an inspiring one for the bulls,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a note.
“In a nutshell, we would characterize last night’s conference call as a ‘mini disaster’ as the Street wanted to get their arms around the falling margins and constant price cuts seen globally, but instead, we heard from a much more cautious Musk which focused on higher interest rates, FSD/AI investments, and highlighting the difficult path for Cybertruck production over the next 12 to 18 months.”
Ives pushed Wedbush’s price target on Tesla down to $310 from $350, citing a “more cautionary near-term dynamic for Musk & Co.”
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley shared similar sentiments, adjusting his price target from $400 to $380.
“How can we be overweight [on] Tesla despite the company’s caution on macro, consumer, Cybertruck and Mexico? Can a ‘growth stock’ work if earnings don’t grow in 2024?” he wrote.
Jonas and fellow Morgan Stanley associates characterized the call as “one of the most cautious Tesla conference calls we’ve heard in years.”
Musk announced that not only would Cybertruck confront Tesla with “enormous challenges” in terms of the initial production ramp and becoming cash flow positive, but that Gigafactory Mexico won’t be a “full tilt” effort until the global economic outlook becomes more stable.
It was not all bad. Model Y is trending to be the best-selling car in terms of revenue and unit value, Autopilot has driven over 500 million miles with Full Self-Driving beta, and energy storage was robust for the quarter. Cybertruck even got a date for the first deliveries, November 30.
However, analysts advise investors to be more cautious as Tesla will have more challenges over the next year. As Tesla is not immune to ones that will impact the global markets, and Musk’s cautionary tone for the Call was indicative of the tumultuous waters the automaker will face moving into 2024 and beyond.
Disclosure: Joey Klender owns Tesla stock.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.