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Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling a ‘historical moment’ in story, catalyst to $1T market cap: Wedbush

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Tesla is set to unveil its Robotaxi on August 8 and as the automaker plans to show off what will be its driverless vehicle platform for the first time, analysts are preparing for what its impact on the automaker’s story could be.

The Robotaxi could be monumental in terms of the company’s perception of what it truly is. For years, Tesla has called itself “more than a car company,” but a face-value investor who does not know anything more than its cars will only see it as that.

Those who have followed the company intently for any period of time know Tesla has much more to offer than cars.

However, the August 8 event could be the brink of Tesla losing its reputation as “just a car company” and the beginning of a new age. It could mean the investors of today, who may not have as much detailed knowledge as others, will finally see Tesla as more than a car company, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says it could be the path to being recognized for what it really is:

“We continue to believe that Tesla is more of an AI and robotics play than a traditional car company…..now the rubber meets the road as the Street anticipates August 8th as a key historical day for the Tesla story.”

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Ives said in his note to shareholders on Friday morning that the August 8 Robotaxi event is the first step in Tesla regaining its $1 trillion valuation.

Tesla was once a trillion-dollar company but has since cooled down to just a shade under $600 billion, at $569 billion.

Tesla preps its API for Robotaxi with two new features

What could get Tesla back up to the trillion-dollar level is what modern investors seem to be most interested in for growth: AI and autonomy.

“Ultimately, the key to reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation is the autonomous and FSD vision taking hold for Tesla, which appears to be turning a corner with this latest FSD v12.4 and now China FSD testing underway.”

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Wedbush’s bull case price target for Tesla is $350, but Ives admits this figure is built around the success of FSD and autonomy, which could open the floodgates to higher stock prices.

The next part of the Tesla story truly relies on what the company brings forth in early August, and after that, it is on the automaker to execute and release a product in a timely fashion—something that has not been its strong suit in the past.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research

“Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

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Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

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Investor's Corner

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

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(Credit: Tesla)

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

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Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

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Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.

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