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Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call: How analysts are reacting

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) took a steep dive on the heels of the company’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call, dropping over 9% as of writing. With the company stating that volume growth would be tempered this year due to its focus on the next-generation platform and executives being quite vague about its guidance for 2024, analysts, including some TSLA bulls, are not happy. 

Tesla actually had a record 2023, with vehicle sales growing nearly 40% year-over-year in 2023 to over 1.8 million units worldwide. Wall Street currently expects Tesla to post about 2.1 to 2.2 million vehicle sales for 2024, which would translate to a growth of about 20%. This number seems conservative and attainable enough, but Tesla simply maintained that its volume growth would be substantially lower than 2023’s ~40%. 

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives shared his sentiments about Tesla’s earnings call, in a post on X. Ives described the call, which provided some high-level long-term views on the company, as another “train wreck” conference call. Following the earnings call, Ives adjusted his price target for Tesla from $350 to $315 per share, though he also noted that Wedbush remains bullish on the company.

“We were dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room on the call and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and fluctuating demand. Instead, we got a high-level Tesla long-term view with another train wreck conference call,” Ives noted. 

RBC analyst Tom Narayan also maintained his “Buy” rating on Tesla, though he lowered his price target from $300 to $297 per share. “We leave our delivery estimates unchanged after the vague guide, but lower our car gross margin expectations on less robust cost down opportunity,” he noted in a report. Narayan also pointed out that Tesla’s next-generation vehicle platform is still “many quarters away” from impacting the company’s numbers. 

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, for his part, pointed out that Tesla almost did not provide any guidance during the call. He also observed that there were no “AI rabbits” pulled out of Tesla’s hat during the call, which was highlighted by Musk’s conservative comments about Dojo. Despite this, Morgan Stanley opted to maintain its “Overweight” rating and $345 price target on Tesla, with a bear case PT of $100 and a bull case PT of $500 per share.  

While the sentiments surrounding Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call seem generally negative, some analysts opted to take a more optimistic stance on the company. Canaccord lowered its price target for Tesla from $267 to $234 per share, though the firm also noted that it is time for investors to be patient about the company. The firm noted that it remains bullish about Tesla’s long-term prospects. 

“It’s time to be patient. The next-generation vehicle, FSD upgrades, margin improvement, and Optimus will likely bring an acceleration in revenue growth. But not this year — 2024 will be subdued; probably a trough, but still relatively slow (we model ~18% y\y revenue growth). Growth curves are seldom smooth, and Tesla is no different. 

“We are still quite bullish on Tesla’s long-term growth prospects. We think EVs will replace ICE vehicles despite recent countervailing narratives. We see vehicle autonomy as one of the highest value-creating technologies to be deployed. Ever. And Tesla, with its razor/ razorblade approach, is a leader in this real-world AI. We think Tesla is Apple on steroids as it focuses on manufacturing and a higher level of vertical integration. Tesla is THE sustainability behemoth, in our opinion,” the firm noted. 

Longtime Tesla bull Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management also pointed out that Tesla’s auto gross margins for the past quarter ended a streak of dropping margins. “The critical metric, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%, compared to the Street at 17.3%. I was expecting 16.7%. While this missed the Street, it marks the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from 16.3% in the Sep-23. Over, this is a positive,” Munster wrote on X. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Sweden blocks Tesla FSD-style testing in Stockholm

It looks like FSD testing in Sweden would have to wait some time.

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Credit: Tesla AI/X

Tesla is putting a lot of effort into getting its Full Self Driving (FSD) system approved in territories outside North America. But while China seems to have embraced FSD fully, other countries like Sweden do not seem to be receiving Tesla’s automated driving system very well.

This became quite evident in a document from Stockholm City, which has started making the rounds online.

FSD Testing Rejected

The document, which was initially shared by X user @KRoelandschap, indicated that the Swedish Traffic Department in Stockholm had rejected Tesla’s request to start FSD testing in the city’s streets. Tesla has been demonstrating FSD in several areas across Europe, so it is not surprising that the company is also attempting to test its automated driving system in Sweden.

Unfortunately for Tesla, Sweden might prove to be a tough nut to crack. As per the City of Stockholm: 

“The Traffic Office is currently working on updating its approach to automation. At the same time, the city and the office are under heavy pressure from other ongoing innovation tests. Our ambition is to actively participate in and learn from the continued development in the field of automation. 

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“Based on this, and in combination with the fact that the current test is the first of its kind, which entails certain risks for both infrastructure and third parties, and that it is planned to be carried out throughout the city, the City of Stockholm considers it is currently not possible to approve the implementation of the test.”

Tesla’s Other Swedish Troubles

Sweden’s FSD testing rejection is not the only roadblock facing Tesla in the country. Since October 2023, Swedish unions have been engaged in an active effort to disrupt Tesla’s operations. The unions’ efforts have been varied, with some resulting in Tesla having difficulty launching more Superchargers in Sweden. Despite this, Tesla has remained stubborn and has refused to bow to the unions’ demands.

Fortunately for Tesla, it seems like its numbers are still strong. Despite the company’s decline in several European countries, the new Model Y is starting to see strong sales figures in Sweden. In early May alone, the new Model Y became the country’s most popular electric vehicle—a notable accomplishment considering the unions’ active efforts to disrupt Tesla.

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Tesla firmware shows new Model Y seat configuration is coming

Tesla could be adding another seating configuration beside the seven-seater to the Model Y lineup later this year.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla firmware has been a great place for some to reveal what the company has in the pipeline, and a new seating configuration for the best-selling Model Y looks to be on the way.

Last week, we reported that Tesla was already hinting toward a 7-seater configuration of the Model Y in a promotional email it sent to those on its contact list.

However, firmware revealed by Tesla hacker greentheonly is showing that a new seating configuration is on the way — a six-seater:

Green says the configuration would not be available in China-only, and will be potentially for sale in other markets as well.

The six-seat and seven-seat configurations of the Model Y were available in the Legacy version of the vehicle, but were met with mixed reviews, as many complained about the lack of legroom in the third row.

This was something that was a real concern for many of those owners who needed something larger than the traditional five-seat variant, but did not want to buy the much more pricey Model X.

We’ve covered the size of that third row on several occasions.

Some owners even took the idea of having a seven-seater into their own hands:

Tesla Model Y third row seat test explores options for a comfortable 7-seat setup

Tesla did not explicitly announce a six-seater configuration of the Model Y, but Lars Moravy, the company’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, said the seven-seater would come to production later in 2025.

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Tesla confirms massive hardware change for autonomy improvement

Tesla has confirmed that a recent change made to some of its recently refreshed vehicles is, in fact, a strategy it will use to improve its suite as it continues to work toward autonomy.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has confirmed that a recent change made to some of its recently refreshed vehicles is, in fact, a strategy it will use to improve its suite as it continues to work toward autonomy.

Tesla first introduced a front-facing camera on the front bumper with the Cybertruck.

Then, the Model Y “Juniper” received the hardware update. The Model S and Model X both received the front-facing camera with its latest update, which was officially revealed last week.

Tesla used new language with the release of the front-facing cameras on the Model S and Model X, confirming they will assist with several things, including “using Autopilot and Actually Smart Summon capabilities”:

“Enhanced visibility when parking or using Autopilot and Actually Smart Summon capabilities.”

This tiny feature on the new Tesla Model Y is perhaps its biggest addition

This is the first time Tesla has used this sort of language, as it was a completely different description with the launch of the new Model Y in January.

When Tesla launched this vehicle, it said the front bumper camera “provides a wider field of view for automatic assisted driving and advanced Smart Summon.”

Tesla switched from using cameras and sensors to only cameras with the launch of Tesla Vision several years ago. The company’s utilization of cameras comes from Tesla’s belief that Ultrasonic Sensors (USS) are not needed for self-driving efforts:

“Along with the removal of USS, we simultaneously launched our vision-based occupancy network – currently used in Full Self-Driving (FSD) (Supervised) – to replace the inputs generated by USS. With today’s software, this approach gives Autopilot high-definition spatial positioning, longer range visibility and the ability to identify and differentiate between objects. As with many Tesla features, our occupancy network will continue to improve rapidly over time.”

CEO Elon Musk has said that sensors were only a crutch and that self-driving would be solved through the use of cameras:

“When your vision works, it works better than the best human because it’s like having eight cameras, it’s like having eyes in the back of your head, beside your head, and has three eyes of different focal distances looking forward. This is — and processing it at a speed that is superhuman. There’s no question in my mind that with a pure vision solution, we can make a car that is dramatically safer than the average person.”

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