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Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call: How analysts are reacting

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) took a steep dive on the heels of the company’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call, dropping over 9% as of writing. With the company stating that volume growth would be tempered this year due to its focus on the next-generation platform and executives being quite vague about its guidance for 2024, analysts, including some TSLA bulls, are not happy. 

Tesla actually had a record 2023, with vehicle sales growing nearly 40% year-over-year in 2023 to over 1.8 million units worldwide. Wall Street currently expects Tesla to post about 2.1 to 2.2 million vehicle sales for 2024, which would translate to a growth of about 20%. This number seems conservative and attainable enough, but Tesla simply maintained that its volume growth would be substantially lower than 2023’s ~40%. 

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives shared his sentiments about Tesla’s earnings call, in a post on X. Ives described the call, which provided some high-level long-term views on the company, as another “train wreck” conference call. Following the earnings call, Ives adjusted his price target for Tesla from $350 to $315 per share, though he also noted that Wedbush remains bullish on the company.

“We were dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room on the call and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and fluctuating demand. Instead, we got a high-level Tesla long-term view with another train wreck conference call,” Ives noted. 

RBC analyst Tom Narayan also maintained his “Buy” rating on Tesla, though he lowered his price target from $300 to $297 per share. “We leave our delivery estimates unchanged after the vague guide, but lower our car gross margin expectations on less robust cost down opportunity,” he noted in a report. Narayan also pointed out that Tesla’s next-generation vehicle platform is still “many quarters away” from impacting the company’s numbers. 

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, for his part, pointed out that Tesla almost did not provide any guidance during the call. He also observed that there were no “AI rabbits” pulled out of Tesla’s hat during the call, which was highlighted by Musk’s conservative comments about Dojo. Despite this, Morgan Stanley opted to maintain its “Overweight” rating and $345 price target on Tesla, with a bear case PT of $100 and a bull case PT of $500 per share.  

While the sentiments surrounding Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call seem generally negative, some analysts opted to take a more optimistic stance on the company. Canaccord lowered its price target for Tesla from $267 to $234 per share, though the firm also noted that it is time for investors to be patient about the company. The firm noted that it remains bullish about Tesla’s long-term prospects. 

“It’s time to be patient. The next-generation vehicle, FSD upgrades, margin improvement, and Optimus will likely bring an acceleration in revenue growth. But not this year — 2024 will be subdued; probably a trough, but still relatively slow (we model ~18% y\y revenue growth). Growth curves are seldom smooth, and Tesla is no different. 

“We are still quite bullish on Tesla’s long-term growth prospects. We think EVs will replace ICE vehicles despite recent countervailing narratives. We see vehicle autonomy as one of the highest value-creating technologies to be deployed. Ever. And Tesla, with its razor/ razorblade approach, is a leader in this real-world AI. We think Tesla is Apple on steroids as it focuses on manufacturing and a higher level of vertical integration. Tesla is THE sustainability behemoth, in our opinion,” the firm noted. 

Longtime Tesla bull Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management also pointed out that Tesla’s auto gross margins for the past quarter ended a streak of dropping margins. “The critical metric, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%, compared to the Street at 17.3%. I was expecting 16.7%. While this missed the Street, it marks the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from 16.3% in the Sep-23. Over, this is a positive,” Munster wrote on X. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla adds new feature that will be great for crowded parking situations

This is the most recent iteration of the app and was priming owners for the slowly-released Holiday Update.

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Credit: Grok

Tesla has added a new feature that will be great for crowded parking lots, congested parking garages, or other confusing times when you cannot seem to pinpoint where your car went.

Tesla has added a new Vehicle Locator feature to the Tesla App with App Update v4.51.5.

This is the most recent iteration of the app and was priming owners for the slowly-released Holiday Update.

While there are several new features, which we will reveal later in this article, perhaps one of the coolest is that of the Vehicle Locator, which will now point you in the direction of your car using a directional arrow on the home screen. This is similar to what Apple uses to find devices:

In real time, the arrow gives an accurate depiction of which direction you should walk in to find your car. This seems extremely helpful in large parking lots or unfamiliar shopping centers.

Getting to your car after a sporting event is an event all in itself; this feature will undoubtedly help with it:

Tesla’s previous app versions revealed the address at which you could locate your car, which was great if you parked on the street in a city setting. It was also possible to use the map within the app to locate your car.

However, this new feature gives a more definitive location for your car and helps with the navigation to it, instead of potentially walking randomly.

It also reveals the distance you are from your car, which is a big plus.

Along with this new addition, Tesla added Photobooth features, Dog Mode Live Activity, Custom Wraps and Tints for Colorizer, and Dashcam Clip details.

All in all, this App update was pretty robust.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk shades Waymo: ‘Never really had a chance’

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk shaded Waymo in a post on X on Wednesday, stating the company “never really had a chance” and that it “will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla and Waymo are the two primary contributors to the self-driving efforts in the United States, with both operating driverless ride-hailing services in the country. Tesla does have a Safety Monitor present in its vehicles in Austin, Texas, and someone in the driver’s seat in its Bay Area operation.

Musk says the Austin operation will be completely void of any Safety Monitors by the end of the year.

With the two companies being the main members of the driverless movement in the U.S., there is certainly a rivalry. The two have sparred back and forth with their geofences, or service areas, in both Austin and the Bay Area.

While that is a metric for comparison now, ultimately, it will not matter in the coming years, as the two companies will likely operate in a similar fashion.

Waymo has geared its business toward larger cities, and Tesla has said that its self-driving efforts will expand to every single one of its vehicles in any location globally. This is where the true difference between the two lies, along with the fact that Tesla uses its own vehicles, while Waymo has several models in its lineup from different manufacturers.

The two also have different ideas on how to solve self-driving, as Tesla uses a vision-only approach. Waymo relies on several things, including LiDAR, which Musk once called “a fool’s errand.”

This is where Tesla sets itself apart from the competition, and Musk highlighted the company’s position against Waymo.

Jeff Dean, the Chief Scientist for Google DeepMind, said on X:

“I don’t think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of today). The safety data is quite compelling for Waymo, as well.”

Musk replied:

“Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla stands to have a much larger fleet of vehicles in the coming years if it chooses to activate Robotaxi services with all passenger vehicles. A simple Over-the-Air update will activate this capability, while Waymo would likely be confined to the vehicles it commissions as Robotaxis.

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Tesla supplier Samsung preps for AI5 production with latest move

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla supplier Samsung is preparing to manufacture the AI5 chip, which will launch the company’s self-driving efforts even further, with its latest move.

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team, which will help resolve complex foundry challenges, stabilize production and yields, and ensure manufacturing goes smoothly for the new project.

The hiring push signals that Tesla’s AI5 project is moving forward quickly at Samsung, which was one of two suppliers to win a contract order from the world’s leading EV maker.

TSMC is the other. TSMC is using its 3nm process, reportedly, while Samsung will do a 2nm as a litmus test for the process.

The different versions are due to the fact that “they translate designs to physical form differently,” CEO Elon Musk said recently. The goal is for the two to operate identically, obviously, which is a challenge.

Some might remember Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga, which found that the chips differed in performance because of different manufacturers.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, but it will also contribute to the Optimus program and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other projects. Currently, Tesla utilizes AI4, formerly known as HW4 or Hardware 4, in its vehicles.

Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving

AI5 is specialized for use by Tesla as it will work in conjunction with the company’s Neural Networks, focusing on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation.

Musk said it was an “amazing design” and an “immense jump” from Tesla’s current AI4 chip. It will be roughly 40 times faster, and have 8 times the raw compute, with 9 times the memory capacity. It is also expected to be three times as efficient per watt as AI4.

AI5 will make its way into “maybe a small number of units” next year, Musk confirmed. However, it will not make its way to high-volume production until 2027. AI5 is not the last step, either, as Musk has already confirmed AI6 would likely enter production in mid-2028.

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