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Tesla valuation is ‘too optimistic’ states HSBC analysts

Credit: Berlinergy | X

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Tesla [NASDAQ: TSLA] received a Reduce rating from HSBC analysts led by Michael Tyndall.

According to HSBC’s Tyndall, the market is too optimistic about Tesla. He clarified that “there is a fair degree of hope in the current share price.” 

As of this writing, TSLA stock is valued at $222.11 pre-market, down from the previous close of $222.18. The EV manufacturer’s market cap is $695.98 billion. HSBC analysts gave Tesla a $146 per share price target, implying a nearly 35% downside risk from the previous close. 

For comparison, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois reduced Tesla’s price target from $265 to $250 last month. He cited fears of dwindling leadership and concerns about industry and growth for his reduced price target.

Despite the financial firm’s bleak outlook on Tesla, HSBC also appears to have some hope for the Texas-based company. HSBC’s valuation model assumes Tesla will be successful in its multitude of projects by 2023, including Full Self-Driving, Dojo, and Optimus.

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“We think, however, that the expected cost of capital for these businesses should be well above the group average given the regulatory and technological challenges they face,” wrote Tyndall in a client note. 

HSBC analysts expressed concerns over Tesla’s timeline for its projects. They specifically pointed to Tesla’s goal to reach 20 million electric vehicles by the end of 2030. The analysts also see Tesla CEO Elon Musk as an asset and a risk to the company. 

“Elon Musk’s global fame has afforded the group a customer awareness that far outweighs the money it has spent on marketing and advertising, which is, therefore, a tangible benefit to the P&L. Leaving aside the current legal issues Elon Musk faces, we think his prominence presents a considerable ‘single man’ risk at the group,” 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk shades Waymo: ‘Never really had a chance’

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk shaded Waymo in a post on X on Wednesday, stating the company “never really had a chance” and that it “will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla and Waymo are the two primary contributors to the self-driving efforts in the United States, with both operating driverless ride-hailing services in the country. Tesla does have a Safety Monitor present in its vehicles in Austin, Texas, and someone in the driver’s seat in its Bay Area operation.

Musk says the Austin operation will be completely void of any Safety Monitors by the end of the year.

With the two companies being the main members of the driverless movement in the U.S., there is certainly a rivalry. The two have sparred back and forth with their geofences, or service areas, in both Austin and the Bay Area.

While that is a metric for comparison now, ultimately, it will not matter in the coming years, as the two companies will likely operate in a similar fashion.

Waymo has geared its business toward larger cities, and Tesla has said that its self-driving efforts will expand to every single one of its vehicles in any location globally. This is where the true difference between the two lies, along with the fact that Tesla uses its own vehicles, while Waymo has several models in its lineup from different manufacturers.

The two also have different ideas on how to solve self-driving, as Tesla uses a vision-only approach. Waymo relies on several things, including LiDAR, which Musk once called “a fool’s errand.”

This is where Tesla sets itself apart from the competition, and Musk highlighted the company’s position against Waymo.

Jeff Dean, the Chief Scientist for Google DeepMind, said on X:

“I don’t think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of today). The safety data is quite compelling for Waymo, as well.”

Musk replied:

“Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla stands to have a much larger fleet of vehicles in the coming years if it chooses to activate Robotaxi services with all passenger vehicles. A simple Over-the-Air update will activate this capability, while Waymo would likely be confined to the vehicles it commissions as Robotaxis.

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Tesla supplier Samsung preps for AI5 production with latest move

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla supplier Samsung is preparing to manufacture the AI5 chip, which will launch the company’s self-driving efforts even further, with its latest move.

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team, which will help resolve complex foundry challenges, stabilize production and yields, and ensure manufacturing goes smoothly for the new project.

The hiring push signals that Tesla’s AI5 project is moving forward quickly at Samsung, which was one of two suppliers to win a contract order from the world’s leading EV maker.

TSMC is the other. TSMC is using its 3nm process, reportedly, while Samsung will do a 2nm as a litmus test for the process.

The different versions are due to the fact that “they translate designs to physical form differently,” CEO Elon Musk said recently. The goal is for the two to operate identically, obviously, which is a challenge.

Some might remember Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga, which found that the chips differed in performance because of different manufacturers.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, but it will also contribute to the Optimus program and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other projects. Currently, Tesla utilizes AI4, formerly known as HW4 or Hardware 4, in its vehicles.

Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving

AI5 is specialized for use by Tesla as it will work in conjunction with the company’s Neural Networks, focusing on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation.

Musk said it was an “amazing design” and an “immense jump” from Tesla’s current AI4 chip. It will be roughly 40 times faster, and have 8 times the raw compute, with 9 times the memory capacity. It is also expected to be three times as efficient per watt as AI4.

AI5 will make its way into “maybe a small number of units” next year, Musk confirmed. However, it will not make its way to high-volume production until 2027. AI5 is not the last step, either, as Musk has already confirmed AI6 would likely enter production in mid-2028.

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Tesla discloses interesting collaboration partner for Supercharging

This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S. 

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Credit: Grok

Tesla disclosed an interesting collaboration partner in an SEC filing, which looks like an indication of a potential project at Supercharger sites.

Tesla said on Tuesday in the filing that it was entering an agreement with BOXABL to design and build a Micromenity structure. Simply put, this is a modular building, usually a few hundred square feet in size, and it has been seen at Superchargers in Europe.

In Magnant, France, Tesla opened a small building at a Supercharger that is available to all EV owners. There are snacks and drinks inside, including ice cream, coffee, a gaming console, and restrooms. It gives people an opportunity to get up and out of their cars while charging.

This building was not built by BOXABL, but instead by bk World Lounges. It is likely the final Supercharging stop before people get to Paris, as it is located 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, from the City of Light.

 

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Magnant has 56 stalls, so it is a large Supercharging stop compared to most. The building could be a sign of things to come, especially as Tesla has opened up larger Supercharger stations along major roadways.

It is for just a single building, as the Scope of Work within the filing states “a comprehensive package for one Micromenity building.”

Superchargers are commonly located at gas stations, shopping centers, and other major points of interest. However, there are some stops that are isolated from retail or entertainment.

This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S.

Tesla has done a lot of really great things for Supercharging this year.

Along with widespread expansion, the company launched the “Charging Passport” this week, opened the largest Supercharger in the world in Lost Hills, California, with 168 chargers, opened the Tesla Diner, a drive-in movie restaurant in Los Angeles, and initiated access to the infrastructure to even more automakers.

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