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Tesla’s exponential production ramp brings Musk closer to 500k target
With Elon Musk finally releasing the highly anticipated news regarding the Tesla Model 3, an even more exciting detail is emerging: Tesla’s exponential production ramp.
Musk detailed in a tweet early Monday morning that, in addition to the Model 3 passing inspection protocol, the production rate of the vehicle per month will be exponential until factories reach maximum production capacity.
Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 3, 2017
Musk gave initial projections of 100 vehicles by August, 1,500 in September and 20,000 in December. Some dedicated fans have plugged Musk’s production projections into Wolfram Alpha, a computational knowledge engine that crunches externally sourced curated data.
-->One fan predicted that 3,000 Model 3s would be produced in October and 8,000 in November. That would add up to a cumulative total of 32,630 by the end of the year, according to the fan’s model.
Another fan even speculated 10,000 Model 3s per week by the end of December 2018. This prediction aligns with Musk’s own goal to produce 10,000 vehicles per week in 2018.
Teslanomics estimated on Twitter that there will be 54,000 total Model 3 deliveries for 2017.
https://twitter.com/teslanomicsco/status/881883723200942081?s=09
All of these projections seem to line up with Tesla’s goal to produce 500,000 vehicles by the end of 2018, as initially predicted by Musk last year. Currently, Model S and X production is slightly over 100,000 vehicles per year, and 400,000 Model 3s have been reserved so far.
-->In addition, if 10,000 Model 3s can be produced per week in 2018, it would help round out the total number of Teslas on the road and bring Musk closer to his goal of producing 500,000 vehicles by 2018.
If Tesla can pull off these numbers as predicted, it would sky rocket the auto-giant to match the production of other major companies like Ford and Chevy.
As production increases, Musk will have to jump a major hurdle that he’s been working on to make the Model 3’s volume possible: providing batteries for each vehicle.
Teslarati has already reported that the Model 3 could use the entire world’s lithium battery supply. To answer that massive production threshold, Musk has designed and built Gigafactories in Nevada, and began battery production nearly six months ago to meet demand.
The massive factories should meet the increased production needs of the Model 3, especially as production increases into the new year.
-->Musk’s announcement, while significant, has largely played second fiddle to the news that the Model 3 passed initial protocols and is two weeks ahead of production schedule. Regardless, Tesla owners everywhere are feeling the buzz over the company’s step toward an affordable Tesla model.
News
Elon Musk makes a key Tesla Optimus detail official
“Since we are naming the singular, we will also name the plural, so Optimi it is,” Musk wrote on X.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk just made a key detail about Optimus official. In a post on X, the CEO clarified some key wording about Optimus, which should help the media and the public become more familiar with the humanoid robot.
Elon Musk makes Optimus’ plural term official
Elon Musk posted a number of Optimus-related posts on X this weekend. On Saturday, he stated that Optimus would be the Von Neumann probe, a machine that could eventually be capable of replicating itself. This capability, it seems, would be the key to Tesla achieving Elon Musk’s ambitious Optimus production targets.
Amidst the conversations about Optimus on X, a user of the social media platform asked the CEO what the plural term for the humanoid robot will be. As per Musk, Tesla will be setting the plural term for Optimus since the company also decided on the robot’s singular term. “Since we are naming the singular, we will also name the plural, so Optimi it is,” Musk wrote in his reply on X.
This makes it official. For media outlets such as Teslarati, numerous Optimus bots are now called Optimi. It rolls off the tongue pretty well, too.
Optimi will be a common sight worldwide
While Musk’s comment may seem pretty mundane to some, it is actually very important. Optimus is intended to be Tesla’s highest volume product, with the CEO estimating that the humanoid robot could eventually see annual production rates in the hundreds of millions, perhaps even more. Since Optimi will be a very common sight worldwide, it is good that people can now get used to terms describing the humanoid robot.
-->During the Tesla 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk stated that the humanoid robot will see “the fastest production ramp of any product of any large complex manufactured product ever,” starting with a one-million-Optimi-per-year production line at the Fremont Factory. Giga Texas would get an even bigger Optimus production line, which should be capable of producing tens of millions of Optimi per year.
News
Tesla is improving Giga Berlin’s free “Giga Train” service for employees
With this initiative, Tesla aims to boost the number of Gigafactory Berlin employees commuting by rail while keeping the shuttle free for all riders.
Tesla will expand its factory shuttle service in Germany beginning January 4, adding direct rail trips from Berlin Ostbahnhof to Giga Berlin-Brandenburg in Grünheide.
With this initiative, Tesla aims to boost the number of Gigafactory Berlin employees commuting by rail while keeping the shuttle free for all riders.
New shuttle route
As noted in a report from rbb24, the updated service, which will start January 4, will run between the Berlin Ostbahnhof East Station and the Erkner Station at the Gigafactory Berlin complex. Tesla stated that the timetable mirrors shift changes for the facility’s employees, and similar to before, the service will be completely free. The train will offer six direct trips per day as well.
“The service includes six daily trips, which also cover our shift times. The trains will run between Berlin Ostbahnhof (with a stop at Ostkreuz) and Erkner station to the Gigafactory,” Tesla Germany stated.
Even with construction continuing at Fangschleuse and Köpenick stations, the company said the route has been optimized to maintain a predictable 35-minute travel time. The update follows earlier phases of Tesla’s “Giga Train” program, which initially connected Erkner to the factory grounds before expanding to Berlin-Lichtenberg.
-->Tesla pushes for majority rail commuting
Tesla began production at Grünheide in March 2022, and the factory’s workforce has since grown to around 11,500 employees, with an estimated 60% commuting from Berlin. The facility produces the Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, for both Germany and other territories.
The company has repeatedly emphasized its goal of having more than half its staff use public transportation rather than cars, positioning the shuttle as a key part of that initiative. In keeping with the factory’s sustainability focus, Tesla continues to allow even non-employees to ride the shuttle free of charge, making it a broader mobility option for the area.
News
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominate China’s real-world efficiency tests
The Tesla Model 3 posted 20.8 kWh/100 km while the Model Y followed closely at 21.8 kWh/100 km.
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y once again led the field in a new real-world energy-consumption test conducted by China’s Autohome, outperforming numerous rival electric vehicles in controlled conditions.
The results, which placed both Teslas in the top two spots, prompted Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun to acknowledge Tesla’s efficiency advantage while noting that his company’s vehicles will continue refining its own models to close the gap.
Tesla secures top efficiency results
Autohome’s evaluation placed all vehicles under identical conditions, such as a full 375-kg load, cabin temperature fixed at 24°C on automatic climate control, and a steady cruising speed of 120 km/h. In this environment, the Tesla Model 3 posted 20.8 kWh/100 km while the Model Y followed closely at 21.8 kWh/100 km, as noted in a Sina News report.
These figures positioned Tesla’s vehicles firmly at the top of the ranking and highlighted their continued leadership in long-range efficiency. The test also highlighted how drivetrain optimization, software management, and aerodynamic profiles remain key differentiators in high-speed, cold-weather scenarios where many electric cars struggle to maintain low consumption.
Xiaomi’s Lei Jun pledges to continue learning from Tesla
Following the results, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun noted that the Xiaomi SU7 actually performed well overall but naturally consumed more energy due to its larger C-segment footprint and higher specification. He reiterated that factors such as size and weight contributed to the difference in real-world consumption compared to Tesla. Still, the executive noted that Xiaomi will continue to learn from the veteran EV maker.
“The Xiaomi SU7’s energy consumption performance is also very good; you can take a closer look. The fact that its test results are weaker than Tesla’s is partly due to objective reasons: the Xiaomi SU7 is a C-segment car, larger and with higher specifications, making it heavier and naturally increasing energy consumption. Of course, we will continue to learn from Tesla and further optimize its energy consumption performance!” Lei Jun wrote in a post on Weibo.
-->Lei Jun has repeatedly described Tesla as the global benchmark for EV efficiency, previously stating that Xiaomi may require three to five years to match its leadership. He has also been very supportive of FSD, even testing the system in the United States.
Elon Musk makes a key Tesla Optimus detail official
Tesla is improving Giga Berlin’s free “Giga Train” service for employees
