Investor's Corner
Top 10 questions Tesla investors want answered in the Q3 2022 earnings call
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is holding its third-quarter earnings call after markets close tomorrow, October 19, 2022. As in previous quarters, Tesla investors have voted for the top questions that they want the company’s executives to answer at the upcoming Q3 2022 earnings call.
As noted by Say, the questions that Tesla investors have submitted for the third quarter earnings call represent inquiries from retail and institutional investors.
Following are the Top 10 questions from Institutional Tesla investors:
- Given the stringent battery content and assembly requirements for consumer tax credit eligibility under the Inflation Reduction Act, can you speak to Tesla’s ability to meet those thresholds in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025 with your existing and planned supply chain?
- What updates can you offer on the backlog and recent order intake trends, especially outside of the US (and specifically in China)?
- Do you still expect 50% annualized growth for the foreseeable future? Is this also true for specifically the Chinese domestic market? Do you expect to need to cut vehicle prices or offer incentives in any market to sustain demand, or has demand remained stable or is even rising?
- Can you tell us more about the product + feature roadmap beyond new models and FSD, and specifically for the interior and powertrain of existing vehicle models?
- We keep hearing of the dire energy crisis in Germany this Winter. What are Tesla’s plans to combat power cuts, and will there be any delays in the ramp-up in production from Giga Berlin because of this?
- How is production planning going for the Cybertruck? What is the initial Phase 1 production target? When can we expect an update on pricing and final design?
- What is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp, and what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170 vs. 4680 cells, and how will that change in the next year?
- Can you share a little bit more on the production ramp targets for the Semi now that production has started?
- Can you talk about how Tesla could adjust if we were to enter a prolonged recession, including new product prioritization, investment flexibility (new factory, factory expansion, service/support infrastructure), productivity/cost measures, and demand stimulation alternatives?
- The progression from Tesla’s first platform with S / X to the second platform with 3 / Y led to a 50% reduction in COGS. When do you see Tesla’s third platform being released, and what level of COGS reduction could you achieve?
The following are the Top 10 questions from Retail Tesla investors.
- You had said previously that FSD Hardware 4 would most likely come first in Cybertruck. Is that still the current plan? Do you expect there to be an upgrade path for Hardware 3 cars to Hardware 4?
- Is a share buyback being considered at the moment?
- How have Tesla’s battery cell production and material sourcing plans evolved with the recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act that includes production credits for batteries and EVs?
- Do you see deliveries softening in Q4 due to people waiting to take delivery after 1/1/23 when the new tax credits take effect?
- Where’s/When’s the next Gigafactory being built?
- Any new updates on Tesla Solar Roof, new efficiencies, and spread across the US?
- Is Robotaxi/FSD rollout still on track for year-end in the USA?
- The rising cost of FSD is a big factor in people not upgrading to a new version. I have a 2020 Model Y with FSD and won’t upgrade to a 2023 because I can’t afford $15k FSD. I also cannot get $15k resale value for my old one. Will you allow transferring FSD to new cars?
- What are the major obstacles Tesla is facing in achieving a 10K/week run rate at Giga Berlin and Giga Austin?
- What is your forward-looking guidance on demand in the early half of 2023, given the macroeconomic situation we find ourselves in?
Tesla’s Q3 2022 earnings call will be held at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. A webcast of the Q3 2022 earnings call is linked here.
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
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Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst teases self-driving dominance in new note: ‘It’s not even close’
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Investor's Corner
Tesla price target boost from its biggest bear is 95% below its current level
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.