Investor's Corner
Top 10 questions Tesla investors want answered in the Q3 2022 earnings call
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is holding its third-quarter earnings call after markets close tomorrow, October 19, 2022. As in previous quarters, Tesla investors have voted for the top questions that they want the company’s executives to answer at the upcoming Q3 2022 earnings call.
As noted by Say, the questions that Tesla investors have submitted for the third quarter earnings call represent inquiries from retail and institutional investors.
Following are the Top 10 questions from Institutional Tesla investors:
- Given the stringent battery content and assembly requirements for consumer tax credit eligibility under the Inflation Reduction Act, can you speak to Tesla’s ability to meet those thresholds in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025 with your existing and planned supply chain?
- What updates can you offer on the backlog and recent order intake trends, especially outside of the US (and specifically in China)?
- Do you still expect 50% annualized growth for the foreseeable future? Is this also true for specifically the Chinese domestic market? Do you expect to need to cut vehicle prices or offer incentives in any market to sustain demand, or has demand remained stable or is even rising?
- Can you tell us more about the product + feature roadmap beyond new models and FSD, and specifically for the interior and powertrain of existing vehicle models?
- We keep hearing of the dire energy crisis in Germany this Winter. What are Tesla’s plans to combat power cuts, and will there be any delays in the ramp-up in production from Giga Berlin because of this?
- How is production planning going for the Cybertruck? What is the initial Phase 1 production target? When can we expect an update on pricing and final design?
- What is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp, and what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170 vs. 4680 cells, and how will that change in the next year?
- Can you share a little bit more on the production ramp targets for the Semi now that production has started?
- Can you talk about how Tesla could adjust if we were to enter a prolonged recession, including new product prioritization, investment flexibility (new factory, factory expansion, service/support infrastructure), productivity/cost measures, and demand stimulation alternatives?
- The progression from Tesla’s first platform with S / X to the second platform with 3 / Y led to a 50% reduction in COGS. When do you see Tesla’s third platform being released, and what level of COGS reduction could you achieve?
The following are the Top 10 questions from Retail Tesla investors.
- You had said previously that FSD Hardware 4 would most likely come first in Cybertruck. Is that still the current plan? Do you expect there to be an upgrade path for Hardware 3 cars to Hardware 4?
- Is a share buyback being considered at the moment?
- How have Tesla’s battery cell production and material sourcing plans evolved with the recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act that includes production credits for batteries and EVs?
- Do you see deliveries softening in Q4 due to people waiting to take delivery after 1/1/23 when the new tax credits take effect?
- Where’s/When’s the next Gigafactory being built?
- Any new updates on Tesla Solar Roof, new efficiencies, and spread across the US?
- Is Robotaxi/FSD rollout still on track for year-end in the USA?
- The rising cost of FSD is a big factor in people not upgrading to a new version. I have a 2020 Model Y with FSD and won’t upgrade to a 2023 because I can’t afford $15k FSD. I also cannot get $15k resale value for my old one. Will you allow transferring FSD to new cars?
- What are the major obstacles Tesla is facing in achieving a 10K/week run rate at Giga Berlin and Giga Austin?
- What is your forward-looking guidance on demand in the early half of 2023, given the macroeconomic situation we find ourselves in?
Tesla’s Q3 2022 earnings call will be held at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. A webcast of the Q3 2022 earnings call is linked here.
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
