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U.S. EV adoption still on pace to reach 50% by 2030: data

Credit: @TeslaSH24/YouTube

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Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. looks to be on pace to hit upcoming climate targets, as suggested by new data published last week.

U.S. EV adoption appears to be on pace to reach 50 percent by 2030, according to data published by Recurrent Auto on Wednesday. The research suggests that multiple revised EV sales projections still show a path to the 50-percent target, despite recent sensationalist headlines regarding a major EV sales slowdown.

Internal market forecasts from the firm also predict that the U.S. could enter the 15-percent “mass adoption phase” of EV adoption by the end of 2025. The report also cites data from other organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which suggest similar outcomes for the next few years in U.S. adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).

Credit: Recurrent Auto

Credit: Recurrent Auto

The IEA has said that it expects global EV figures to increase nearly tenfold by 2030 under current policies.

The firm also notes that battery costs have dropped to a new low, and are projected to drop 40 percent between 2022 and 2025. In addition, the data accounts for upcoming EV launches, including the BMW Neue Klasse, GMC Sierra EV, Hyundai Ioniq 7, Nissan Maxima EV, Rivian R2 series, and the VW ID.Buzz, among others.

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The report also highlights that government incentive programs are working to help increase EV adoption, and as many as 17 states have instituted aggressive zero-emissions targets that outpace more lax federal guidelines.

You can check out the full write-up for Recurrent’s 2024 EV adoption data here.

In 2022, Recurrent also predicted that the Tesla Model Y could become the best-selling vehicle in the world in 2023. The electric SUV did go on to achieve that label, as detailed by the company during its Q4 2023 earnings call, citing data from Jato Dynamics.

BEV sales passed new milestone in the U.S. in 2023; state adoption varies

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What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

Zach is a renewable energy reporter who has been covering electric vehicles since 2020. He grew up in Fremont, California, and he currently lives in Colorado. His work has appeared in the Chicago Tribune, KRON4 San Francisco, FOX31 Denver, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and many other publications. When he isn't covering Tesla or other EV companies, you can find him writing and performing music, drinking a good cup of coffee, or hanging out with his cats, Banks and Freddie. Reach out at zach@teslarati.com, find him on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Tesla China extends its 7-year financing promotion once more

The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla has extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing programs in China once more, pushing the offers through March 31, the end of the first quarter.

The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year. The financing plan was first introduced on January 6 as a strategy aimed at offsetting higher ownership costs ahead of China’s planned 5% NEV purchase tax in 2026.

The original promotion was set to expire at the end of January but was extended to the end of February. This has now been extended again through March.

The repeated extensions reflect growing competitive pressure. Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China totaled 625,698 units, representing a 4.78% year-on-year decline, as per data compiled by CNEV Post. That being said, this decline is partly caused by the Model Y’s changeover to its new variant in Q1 2025, which resulted in lower sales during the quarter. 

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In early 2026, the Model Y also lost its position as China’s top-selling EV in January to Xiaomi’s YU7, though this was also a month when Tesla primarily exported vehicles to foreign territories, which pushed local delivery numbers lower.

During January 2026, Tesla China exported 50,644 vehicles, roughly 1.7 times higher than the same month a year ago and more than 15 times higher than December’s level.

Tesla’s financing push has not gone unanswered. BYD this week introduced its own seven-year low-interest plan across its Ocean lineup and Fang Cheng Bao sub-brand, also valid through March 31. Other competitors including NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Geely Auto have already rolled out extended-term loan programs as well.

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Tesla China focuses on local deliveries as Q1 enters final month

Tesla’s estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks.

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Credit: Tesla Malaysia/X

Tesla’s delivery wait times in China have dropped to some of their shortest levels in years, an apparent hint that Giga Shanghai has largely cleared its order backlog and currently has strong production capacity.

As of February 26, estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks, as per observations of Tesla China’s official webpages by CNEV Post

That marks a notable shift from the several-week or even two-month waits seen late last year.

The one-to-three-week delivery window suggests that Giga Shanghai is likely focusing on the local market, at least for now as the company enters the final month of the first quarter. Tesla China typically spends the first half of the quarter catering to markets that import vehicles from Giga Shanghai. 

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Historically, when Tesla’s wait times in China compress to their shortest levels, the company often follows with fresh market actions.

In past cycles, shortened delivery timelines were followed by promotional activity. After delivery windows narrowed to one to three weeks in early 2024, for example, Tesla later introduced an RMB 10,000 instant discount on Model Y final payments that year.

To spur local demand, Tesla recently extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing offers through March 31. This marks the second extension of the policy this year.

So far, posts from the Tesla community suggest that interest in the company’s vehicles among consumers in China is still strong. Videos of busy delivery centers across China have been shared on social media.

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China’s competitive EV landscape has evolved as of late. With regulators discouraging aggressive price wars, automakers are increasingly leaning on financing incentives instead of direct price cuts. Major players including BYD, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto have introduced similar loan extensions and promotional financing packages.

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Elon Musk’s The Boring Company closes Tunnel Vision Challenge

The Tunnel Vision Challenge invited individuals, companies, and governments to propose a tunnel project up to one mile long.

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Credit: The Boring Company/X

Elon Musk’s The Boring Company has officially closed submissions for its Tunnel Vision Challenge, confirming that a total of 487 entries were received before the deadline.

In a post on X, the company wrote, “Tunnel Vision Challenge is closed! 487 entries received – TBC team is excited to go through them all!” The company added that “We will select the top ~15 in the next week, and reach out with follow-up questions,” and that an “overall winner will be announced on March 23.”

The Tunnel Vision Challenge invited individuals, companies, and governments to propose a tunnel project up to one mile long with a 12-foot inner diameter. The winning entry will have its tunnel constructed free of charge.

Submissions could range from Loop passenger tunnels to freight, pedestrian, utility, or water tunnels. The only requirement was that the project clearly demonstrate how tunneling would meaningfully improve transportation or infrastructure between two points.

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Just days before the deadline, the company provided an interim update noting that 407 entries had already been received. “Update on the Tunnel Vision Challenge – 1 mile of free tunnel! With 3 days left to submit, 407 entries have been received. Great to see enthusiasm for tunnels!” The Boring Company wrote at the time on X. By the close of submissions, the total had grown closer to 500 entries, hinting at strong interest in underground transportation solutions.

Entries are being evaluated on usefulness, stakeholder engagement, and technical, economic, and regulatory feasibility. Applicants were required to quantify projected benefits, such as time saved per rider or cost savings per shipment, and provide maps showing proposed alignments and other details. Submissions that included geotechnical or subsurface data are expected to receive additional consideration.

The Boring Company will fund the tunnel’s construction itself, though related infrastructure costs may be discussed with the winning team. The company also retains discretion to modify or cancel the challenge.

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