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Tesla Model 3, Model X take top spots for EV with highest resale value by KBB

Tesla Model 3 and Model X [Credit: @Harbles via Twitter]

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The Kelley Blue Book (KBB) 2019 Best Resale Value Award Winners are in, and Tesla’s Model 3 has landed at the top of the electric vehicle category with a projected 69.3% resale value after 36 months and 48.7% after 60 months. Its SUV brethren, the Model X, achieved a worthy status of its own, placing 2nd in the same category at 56.7% (36 months) and 34.3% (60 months). While Tesla’s fleet of vehicles are high-value luxury cars, their ability to retain a large portion of their original selling price as used cars is yet another data point driving their desired position in the consumer market.

The recognition given by the long-trusted consumer automotive resource in its announcement of the award spoke highly of the vehicle’s appeal to buyers, something which played a role in its valuation: “The Tesla Model 3 has a cultural magic and desirability about it that made people willing to wait months and even years to own one. People don’t like Tesla Model 3s — they crave them,” noted KBB in a tweet. This sentiment from KBB as a 92-year veteran in car assessments, of course, adds yet another confirmation of something many Tesla owners and reservation holders already assumed to be true.

Thanks to Tesla’s customer-driven design and development process, features such as class-leading range, a vast Supercharging network, over-the-air software updates, great-looking design, and overall technology serving convenient, practical, and entertainment purposes, the company’s two newest vehicles are handily standing out against competitors. In KBB’s overview page detailing the Model 3’s category win, more praise along these lines was offered: “For those who can afford it, the smallest Tesla offers usability, joyful road manners, and an intriguing glimpse of a gasoline-free future.” The vehicle’s 5-star safety rating from the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) in every category was also noted as a driving price point in a general overview page about the Model 3.

Tesla’s Model 3 has been won Kelley Blue Book’s 2019 Best Resale Value Award in the Electric Vehicle Category. | Credit: Tesla

The annual KBB Best Resale Value Awards compares a variety of vehicle resale metrics over 36 and 60 month time frames and then sorts them into three categories: Best Brand/Luxury Brand (evaluating makers’ overall portfolio), Overall Top Ten Winners (best resale values in all categories), and Category Winners (24 categories covering every class, shape, and price). According to the KBB website detailing the award, the values are calculated based on several factors including vehicle specification and trim levels, sales data, market data, and segment competition, among others. While the general system is meant to provide a fair comparison, certain numbers are worth considering more broadly for a fuller picture of Tesla’s Model 3 and Model X in the market.

Given the chance to compete in categories that would fit outside of an electric vehicle-only comparison, the Model 3 would beat every other sedan by a large margin at the 36-month mark. The Best Mid-Size Car, Subaru Legacy, was given a 51.8% resale value at 36 months and 38.4% at 60 months. As Best Luxury Car, the Audi A7 came in at 47.3% and 32.3%, respectively. Compared to the gasoline-powered winner, Chevy Tahoe, in the Best Full-Size SUV category at 55% and 43%, the Model X would have prevailed at 56.7% and 34.3%.

Perhaps as more legacy auto manufacturers come over to the all-electric side, the categories will become more agnostic about vehicle power sources for awards.

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Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.

The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.

Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.

There are plenty of ways the company can do this:

Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts

SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.

SpaceX is charging Anthropic massive money for its compute

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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity

The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.

Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.

Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.

High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online

GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.

Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications

Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.

These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.

Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages

SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.

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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.

SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.

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Tesla headlights cause recall of over 20,000 Model 3 and Model Y

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Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.

Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”

Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.

Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.

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However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.

Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.

Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.

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Elon Musk

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.

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Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.

On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.

Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.

The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.

For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.

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