Investor's Corner
Wall Street thinks Tesla ($TSLA) is headed into bear territory
In advance of tomorrow’s Q4 earnings call, Tesla investors and Wall Street analysts have seldom held more conflicting views about where the stock is heading. Shares in Tesla have advanced 50% in the past 3 months, setting historic highs along the way. Based on market capitalization, Tesla is now worth just slightly less than auto manufacturers Ford and General Motors.
Some analyst think the stock will go higher still. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas forecasts a price of $305 per share in the near future but many of his colleagues disagree. Bloomberg recently polled 14 analysts and found the majority of them see the stock going lower in the months ahead. The median response was $48 per share below where the stock is today. That is the most pessimistic view among Wall Street traders since Tesla went public 7 years ago and is reflected in Bloomberg’s chart below.
Of the six analysts who have updated their advice on Tesla in the month of February, none has raised the estimate. That is despite the company announcing that it would begin pilot production of the Model 3 this week, news that has been one of the triggers for the latest run up. We “see no fundamental reason for run-up,” said UBS Securities LLC analyst Colin Langan. He sent a note to his clients last week in which he projected the price of Tesla stock to fall back to$160 a share over the next 12 months.
Why the disconnect? Traditionally, market watchers pay attention to something they call the Relative Strength Index, which measures the speed and change of a stock price either up or down. In essence, it is is a tool designed to strip out the emotional component that affects all stock valuations and insulate professionals from getting caught up in the herd mentality.
If the RSI climbs above 70, that indicates a stock is “overbought.” Such a level is widely considered to be a “sell signal.” Conversely, anything below 30 is considered “oversold” and is considered a “buy signal.” Tesla’s RSI soared to 83 last week, the highest level in more than 4 years.
Tesla has a lot on its plate this year. In addition to getting the Model 3 into regular production, it is aggressively pursuing its grid scale battery storage business, expanding the Gigafactory, completing the integration of SolarCity into the business, rolling out its new Solar Roof product line, continuing the expansion of its Supercharger network, opening new stores, and building new service centers. It is also pushing into new markets in Portugal, Dubai, Taiwan, India, and Korea.
In the spring of 2016, Elon Musk predicted Tesla would have a market capitalization equal to Apple by the year 2025, or somewhere around $700 billion. Musk has never been shy about touting his projections for the future and many investors take his pronouncements as articles of faith. They see stock analysts as Luddites who just don’t “get it” when it comes to Musk and Tesla.
“Tesla is a serial capital raiser,” says Adam Jonas. “As such, its ability to sustain its operations and fundamental value is inextricably linked to the very performance of its share price, creating a self-reinforcing momentum.” Whether that “self-reinforcing momentum” will continue to propel Tesla’s stock price higher is anybody’s guess.
Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.
Tesla reported it delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, ANNIHILATING Wall Street expectations of 406,000. Production was reported at 451,758.
Deliveries:
Model 3/Y: 467,762
Other Models: 12,364Production:
Model 3/Y: 442,936
Other Models: 8,822 https://t.co/TTHwQAsKt8 pic.twitter.com/7qI4Zj6FE5— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.
Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.
For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.
Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.
Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing
The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.
Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
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