Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Wall Street thinks Tesla ($TSLA) is headed into bear territory

Published

on

In advance of tomorrow’s Q4 earnings call, Tesla investors and Wall Street analysts have seldom held more conflicting views about where the stock is heading. Shares in Tesla have advanced 50% in the past 3 months, setting historic highs along the way. Based on market capitalization, Tesla is now worth just slightly less than auto manufacturers Ford and General Motors.

Some analyst think the stock will go higher still. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas forecasts a price of $305 per share in the near future but many of his colleagues disagree. Bloomberg recently polled 14 analysts and found the majority of them see the stock going lower in the months ahead. The median response was $48 per share below where the stock is today. That is the most pessimistic view among Wall Street traders since Tesla went public 7 years ago and is reflected in Bloomberg’s chart below.

Of the six analysts who have updated their advice on Tesla in the month of February, none has raised the estimate. That is despite the company announcing that it would begin pilot production of the Model 3 this week, news that has been one of the triggers for the latest run up. We “see no fundamental reason for run-up,” said UBS Securities LLC analyst Colin Langan. He sent a note to his clients last week in which he projected the price of Tesla stock to fall back to$160 a share over the next 12 months.

Why the disconnect? Traditionally, market watchers pay attention to something they call the Relative Strength Index, which measures the speed and change of a stock price either up or down. In essence, it is is a tool designed to strip out the emotional component that affects all stock valuations and insulate professionals from getting caught up in the herd mentality.

If the RSI climbs above 70, that  indicates a stock is “overbought.” Such a level is widely considered to be a “sell signal.” Conversely, anything below 30 is considered “oversold” and is considered a “buy signal.” Tesla’s RSI soared to 83 last week, the highest level in more than 4 years.

Advertisement

Tesla has a lot on its plate this year. In addition to getting the Model 3 into regular production, it is aggressively pursuing its grid scale battery storage business, expanding the Gigafactory, completing the integration of SolarCity into the business, rolling out its new Solar Roof product line, continuing the expansion of its Supercharger network, opening new stores, and building new service centers. It is also pushing into new markets in Portugal, Dubai, Taiwan, India, and Korea.

In the spring of 2016, Elon Musk predicted Tesla would have a market capitalization equal to Apple by the year 2025, or somewhere around $700 billion. Musk has never been shy about touting his projections for the future and many investors take his pronouncements as articles of faith. They see stock analysts as Luddites who just don’t “get it” when it comes to Musk and Tesla.

“Tesla is a serial capital raiser,” says Adam Jonas. “As such, its ability to sustain its operations and fundamental value is inextricably linked to the very performance of its share price, creating a self-reinforcing momentum.” Whether that “self-reinforcing momentum” will continue to propel Tesla’s stock price higher is anybody’s guess.

 

Advertisement
Advertisement
Comments

Elon Musk

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Published

on

Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

Advertisement

Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Tesla Robotaxi and autonomy dreams lean on shareholders: Wedbush

Published

on

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla’s dreams of developing a Robotaxi suite that utilizes a fully autonomous platform developed by the company’s top-tier talent now lean on shareholders and perhaps the most crucial vote in its history.

That’s what Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a new note to investors on Wednesday. As the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is now just one day away, investors are down to their final chance to vote for or against Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.

Ives wrote that, while the company has made its intentions clear, wanting to maintain Musk, pay him accordingly, and give him the voting power he has long wanted, ultimately, the responsibility falls on investors.

As many retail shareholders have pushed for people to vote for Musk’s compensation package, there are a handful of large-scale funds and firms that have decided to go in another direction. Bullish Wall Street firms, Wedbush being one of them, believe it is crucial for Tesla to maintain Musk.

The vote could have major implications on whether Tesla launches an autonomous Robotaxi suite in the near future, Ives says:

“Getting Musk’s pay package approved tomorrow at the highly anticipated meeting will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals with the autonomous and Robotaxi roadmap ahead.”

While some investors are convinced the company is ready to go in a different direction simply based on Musk’s political involvement over the past year, many investors are under the impression that the development of Tesla’s autonomy suite, as well as its prowess in the EV sector, would fall if Elon were not at the helm.

Tesla’s Board of Directors has already stated that they have received confirmation that Musk’s political involvement would wind down in a timely manner. Moving forward, his focus will not veer from the mission of any of his companies; at least that’s what can be gathered from some of the Board’s communications over the past month.

Musk’s new compensation package is incentivized by performance metrics and will require him to achieve a handful of lofty tranches. He will not get paid unless he drives shareholder value, which is something many skeptics tend to leave out.

Ives continues:

“This new incentive-driven pay package for Musk would also provide an additional 423 million shares of common stock (~12% of shares), which would increase his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power, which we believe was critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history. We believe this was the smart move by the Board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk…and with the AI Revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and center.”

Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $600 price target on shares.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

UPDATE: Tesla investors push Charles Schwab for Musk comp plan clarification

Published

on

tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Update: 4:00 p.m. EDT – Charles Schwab has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement, clarifying that it plans to vote FOR Musk’s compensation package:

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
There have also been updates to the headline and various paragraphs to reflect this as well as accuracy.

Tesla investors are pushing Charles Schwab for clarification after it was expected to vote against CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.

The Tesla community appeared to see that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.

Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:

At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs were expected to vote against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.

Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.

It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.

Continue Reading

Trending