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Waymo could dominate 60% of driverless taxi market by 2030
A report from investment bank UBS has revealed that Waymo would likely command up to 60% of the driverless taxi service market by 2030. According to the financial firm, Waymo’s dominance of the self-driving taxi industry could force the world’s prominent carmakers to adopt its autonomous technology.
UBS noted in its report that global revenues from self-driving taxi services could reach up to $2.8 billion per year by 2030. The financial firm further stated that Waymo’s lead in the driverless industry has managed to reach a point where only a few automakers, such as General Motors and Daimler, would likely be able to rival the Google-based company.
UBS expects that by 2030, 12% of cars sold will be used for driverless taxi fleets, with a total of 26 million autonomous vehicles in operation. As a result of the emergence of driverless vehicles, the investment bank expects that private car sales will see a 5% decline, according to a report from The Manufacturer.
The advent of self-driving taxi services will not happen in the next few years, however, according to UBS’ recent report. Depending on the public’s acceptance of the technology, the financial firm expects that demand for self-driving vehicles will really take off around 2026. The bank also predicts that the adoption of the technology will vary between different markets. So far, however, UBS states that Waymo currently stands as the company that could benefit most from the emerging self-driving taxi market, considering that Google has been committed to the technology for years.
“Unlike most auto players, Google focused on full self-driving technology from the very beginning — more than five years before the auto industry started working on it,” the report noted.
UBS’ report on Waymo may very well prove to be accurate. The company, after all, has already garnered 5 million miles of physical testing and 5 billion miles of virtual testing. More vehicles are being added to its fleet as well. Earlier this year, CEO John Krafcik unveiled the company’s latest car in its fleet — the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE. According to the CEO, Waymo is hoping to deploy as many as 20,000 I-PACE driverless taxis within two years of the vehicle’s production.
While Waymo has a lead in driverless systems for now, Tesla’s planned ride-sharing network might prove to be a surprise competitor in the autonomous taxi market. During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk noted that the Tesla Network, a system that enables electric car owners to deploy their vehicles for ride-sharing, would be akin to a “hybrid of Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb.”
“It’s sort of like a combination of Uber, Lyft and Airbnb type of thing, where you can own your car and have a higher percent usage of an autonomous electric car. You can say it’s available generally to anyone who wants to use it when you’re not using it. You can recall it at will. You can restrict usage to only friends and family or only users who are 5-star.”
Musk, however, noted that Tesla must first develop and refine its Full Self Driving suite before such a service is rolled out. Nevertheless, Musk stated that Tesla is making good progress in the development of its autonomous driving suite.
In the global race toward electrification, Norway stands unchallenged as the world’s most mature EV market.
In the first quarter of this year, EVs captured a staggering 97.9 percent market share, with plugin EVs reaching 98.6 percent. Out of 27,175 new vehicles registered, non-BEV powertrains have been reduced to statistical noise—petrol and hybrids combined accounted for fewer than 80 units.
At the heart of this transformation is Tesla.
The Model Y dominated overall vehicle sales with 5,406 units, outselling the next five best-selling non-Tesla models combined. The refreshed Model 3 followed in second place with 2,010 units, giving Tesla a commanding one-two finish. Toyota’s bZ4X placed third with 1,400 units, while Volvo’s EX40 and others trailed further back.
The @Tesla Model Y was the #1 best-selling vehicle overall in Norway in Q1 2026 by a wide margin, with BEVs in general taking a 97.9% market share. Model 3 ranked #2.
Model Y (5,406 units) sold more units than the next five best-selling non-Tesla vehicles on the list. pic.twitter.com/LE2SD5UQjs
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 5, 2026
This dominance is no fluke. Norway has spent decades building the infrastructure and policy framework that makes EVs the rational choice. Generous tax incentives, exemption from VAT, reduced tolls, free ferries for EVs, and a dense charging network have turned the country into a living laboratory for mass adoption. High fuel prices—often exceeding $8 per gallon—further tilt the economics decisively toward electricity.
The result is a market where choosing anything but an EV feels increasingly anachronistic. Diesel and petrol cars have all but vanished from new registrations. Even plug-in hybrids, once a transitional favorite, have collapsed to 0.7 percent share.
Chinese brands like XPeng, BYD, and Zeekr are making inroads, while legacy European and Japanese automakers scramble to field competitive BEVs. Yet Tesla’s combination of range, performance, software, Supercharger network, and brand cachet continues to set the benchmark.
Norway’s Q1 figures come after a volatile start to 2026 caused by VAT changes that pulled forward sales into late 2025. The market rebounded strongly in March, underscoring underlying demand. Tesla’s Q1 performance in the country also jumped significantly year-over-year, reinforcing its position even as competition intensifies.
What happens in Norway rarely stays there. The country has long served as a bellwether for EV trends across Europe and beyond.
Its near-total transition demonstrates that when incentives align with infrastructure and consumer economics, adoption accelerates dramatically. For automakers, Norway signals a future where success hinges not on legacy powertrains but on delivering compelling electric vehicles at scale.
As other nations ramp up their own EV ambitions, Tesla’s continued reign in the world’s heaviest EV market sends a clear message: in a fully mature electric future, the company that started the revolution remains the one to beat. With the Model Y still the best-selling vehicle overall—quarter after quarter—Norway’s roads are a rolling testament to Tesla’s enduring leadership.
Tesla has taken home the “Overall Loyalty to Make” award from S&P Global Mobility for the fourth consecutive year, reinforcing Tesla owners’ willingness to come back. The 2025 awards are based on S&P Global Mobility’s analysis of 13.6 million new retail vehicle registrations in the U.S. from October 2024 through September 2025. The complete list of 2025 winners includes General Motors for Overall Loyalty to Manufacturer, Tesla for Overall Loyalty to Make, Chevrolet Equinox for Overall Loyalty to Model, Mini for Most Improved Make Loyalty, Subaru for Overall Loyalty to Dealer, and Tesla again for both Ethnic Market Loyalty to Make and Highest Conquest Percentage.
Tesla’s streak in this category started in 2022, and the brand has now won the Highest Conquest Percentage award for six straight years, meaning it keeps pulling buyers away from other brands at a rate no competitor has matched. Tesla’s retention among Asian households reached 63.6% and among Hispanic households 61.9%, rates that significantly outpace national averages for those groups. That breadth of appeal across demographics adds a layer of significance to a win that some might dismiss as routine.
The timing matters too. After several consecutive quarters of decline, Tesla’s share of U.S. EV sales jumped to 59% in Q4 2025. That rebound, arriving just as competitors were flooding the market with new models and incentives, suggests Tesla’s loyalty numbers are not simply the result of limited alternatives. Buyers are still choosing it when they have plenty of other options.
What keeps Tesla owners coming back has a lot to do with the and convenience of charging. The Supercharger network is the most straightforward example. With over 65,000 Superchargers globally, it remains the largest and most reliable fast-charging network in the world, and owners who have built their routines around it face a real practical cost when considering a switch. Competitors have made progress, but the consistency, speed, and availability of Tesla’s network is still the benchmark the rest of the industry is chasing. Then there is the software side. Tesla has built a model where the car you own today is functionally different from the car you bought two years ago, through over-the-air updates that add continuous game-changing improvements such as Full Self-Driving that has moved from a driver-assist feature to an increasingly capable autonomous system. For many Tesla owners, leaving the brand means starting over with a car that will not get meaningfully better over time, and that is a trade-off fewer and fewer are willing to make.
Tesla Robotaxi services in Austin have been operating since last Summer, but Tesla has admittedly been delayed in its expansion of the geofence, fleet size, and other details in a bid to prioritize safety as new technology rolls out.
But those barriers are being broken with new guardrails being removed from the program.
Tesla has achieved a significant advancement in its autonomous ride-hailing program. As of May 4, the Robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas, has begun operating unsupervised during evening hours for the first time. This expansion moves beyond previous limitations that restricted unsupervised service to daylight hours, typically ending in mid-afternoon.
Tesla Robotaxi in Austin is operating unsupervised in the evenings for the first time today.
Previously in Austin, unsupervised operation ended mid-afternoon
— Robotaxi Tracker (@RtaxiTracker) May 4, 2026
The change brings Austin in line with operations in Dallas and Houston. Those cities have supported evening unsupervised runs since their initial launches in April, and both recently received additions of new unsupervised vehicles to their fleets. This coordinated progress across Texas strengthens Tesla’s regional presence and provides a broader testing ground for the technology.
This milestone carries substantial weight in the development of autonomous vehicles. Extending operations into low-light conditions meaningfully expands the Robotaxi’s operational design domain (ODD)—the specific environments and scenarios in which the system is approved to operate safely without human intervention.
Nighttime driving presents unique technical demands: diminished visibility, headlight glare from oncoming traffic, reduced contrast for identifying pedestrians and lane markings, and greater variability in camera sensor exposure.
Tesla’s pure vision approach, powered by neural networks trained on vast real-world datasets rather than lidar or pre-mapped routes, must handle these variables reliably. Demonstrating consistent unsupervised performance after sunset validates the robustness of the end-to-end AI stack and its ability to generalize across diverse lighting conditions.
Beyond technical validation, the expansion holds important operational and economic implications. Evening hours often coincide with peak urban demand for rides, including commutes, dining, and entertainment outings.
Enabling service during these periods increases daily vehicle utilization, allowing each Robotaxi to generate more revenue while gathering additional high-value training data. Higher utilization accelerates the virtuous cycle of data collection, model improvement, and further ODD growth.
Looking ahead, this step paves the way for more ambitious rollouts. Success in low-light environments positions Tesla to pursue near-24-hour operations, potentially integrating highways and expanding into varied weather patterns. Regulators worldwide frequently demand evidence of safe performance across day-night cycles before granting wider approvals.
Proven capability in Texas could expedite deployments in planned cities such as Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas during the first half of 2026.
Tesla confirms Robotaxi expansion plans with new cities and aggressive timeline
Moreover, scaling evening service supports Tesla’s long-term vision of a high-efficiency robotaxi network. Greater fleet productivity lowers the cost per mile, making autonomous mobility more accessible and competitive against traditional ride-hailing.
As the company iterates on software updates informed by nighttime data, reliability is expected to compound rapidly, unlocking denser urban coverage and longer-distance trips.
In summary, the introduction of an unsupervised evening Robotaxi service in Austin represents more than an incremental schedule adjustment. It signals a critical maturation of the underlying technology and sets the foundation for broader geographic and temporal expansion.
With Texas operations gaining momentum, Tesla is steadily advancing toward transforming urban transportation at scale.
Tesla reigns supreme in the heaviest EV market on Earth
Tesla owners keep coming back for more
