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Waymo could dominate 60% of driverless taxi market by 2030

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7 years ago

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A report from investment bank UBS has revealed that Waymo would likely command up to 60% of the driverless taxi service market by 2030. According to the financial firm, Waymo’s dominance of the self-driving taxi industry could force the world’s prominent carmakers to adopt its autonomous technology.

UBS noted in its report that global revenues from self-driving taxi services could reach up to $2.8 billion per year by 2030. The financial firm further stated that Waymo’s lead in the driverless industry has managed to reach a point where only a few automakers, such as General Motors and Daimler, would likely be able to rival the Google-based company.

UBS expects that by 2030, 12% of cars sold will be used for driverless taxi fleets, with a total of 26 million autonomous vehicles in operation. As a result of the emergence of driverless vehicles, the investment bank expects that private car sales will see a 5% decline, according to a report from The Manufacturer.

The advent of self-driving taxi services will not happen in the next few years, however, according to UBS’ recent report. Depending on the public’s acceptance of the technology, the financial firm expects that demand for self-driving vehicles will really take off around 2026. The bank also predicts that the adoption of the technology will vary between different markets. So far, however, UBS states that Waymo currently stands as the company that could benefit most from the emerging self-driving taxi market, considering that Google has been committed to the technology for years.

“Unlike most auto players, Google focused on full self-driving technology from the very beginning — more than five years before the auto industry started working on it,” the report noted.

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UBS’ report on Waymo may very well prove to be accurate. The company, after all, has already garnered 5 million miles of physical testing and 5 billion miles of virtual testing. More vehicles are being added to its fleet as well. Earlier this year, CEO John Krafcik unveiled the company’s latest car in its fleet — the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE. According to the CEO, Waymo is hoping to deploy as many as 20,000 I-PACE driverless taxis within two years of the vehicle’s production.

While Waymo has a lead in driverless systems for now, Tesla’s planned ride-sharing network might prove to be a surprise competitor in the autonomous taxi market. During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk noted that the Tesla Network, a system that enables electric car owners to deploy their vehicles for ride-sharing, would be akin to a “hybrid of Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb.”

“It’s sort of like a combination of Uber, Lyft and Airbnb type of thing, where you can own your car and have a higher percent usage of an autonomous electric car. You can say it’s available generally to anyone who wants to use it when you’re not using it. You can recall it at will. You can restrict usage to only friends and family or only users who are 5-star.”

Musk, however, noted that Tesla must first develop and refine its Full Self Driving suite before such a service is rolled out. Nevertheless, Musk stated that Tesla is making good progress in the development of its autonomous driving suite.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

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4 hours ago

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October 28, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has sent a clear message to Waymo with its latest move to its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas.

Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat

The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.

One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).

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Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.

On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

This is according to Robotracker:

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.

Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.

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Tesla exec reveals shock development with Cybercab

“If we have to have a steering wheel, it can have a steering wheel and pedals.”

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14 hours ago

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October 28, 2025

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(Credit: Teslarati)

Tesla is planning to launch the Cybercab in the second quarter of next year, and it is designed to be fully autonomous, so much so that the company is planning to build it without a steering wheel or pedals.

However, a Tesla executive said today that the company could ditch that idea altogether in what would be a major shift from the plans the company, and especially its CEO Elon Musk, have announced for the Cybercab.

Earlier today, Robyn Denholm, the company’s Chair for the Board of Directors, revealed that Tesla would potentially switch up its plans for the Cybercab based on potential regulatory requirements.

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Currently, even autonomous vehicles that operate for companies like Tesla and Waymo are required to have steering wheels and pedals. From a regulatory perspective, this could halt the plans Tesla has for Cybercab.

Denholm said in an interview with Bloomberg:

“If we have to have a steering wheel, it can have a steering wheel and pedals.”

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Interestingly, Musk and Tesla have not veered away from the idea that the vehicle will be without these operational must-haves.

Since the vehicle was revealed last October at the We, Robot event in Los Angeles, Tesla has maintained that the car would be built without a steering wheel or pedals, and would equip two seats, which is what is statistically most popular in ride-sharing, as the vast majority of rides have only one or two passengers.

Musk doubled down on the plans for Cybercab as recently as last week, when he said:

“That’s really a vehicle that’s optimized for full autonomy. It, in fact, does not have a steering wheel or pedals and is really an enduring optimization on minimizing cost per mile for fully considered cost per mile of operation. For our other vehicles, they still have a little bit of the horse carriage thing going on where, obviously, if you’ve got steering wheels and pedals and you’re designing a car that people might want to go very direct past acceleration and tight cornering, like high-performance cars, then you’re going to design a different car than one that is optimized for a comfortable ride and doesn’t expect to go past sort of 85 or 90 miles an hour.”

Cybercab is fully conceptualized as a vehicle that has zero need for pedals or a steering wheel because it is aimed toward being fully reliant on a Level 5 autonomous platform.

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Tesla is ramping its hiring for Cybercab vehicle manufacturing roles

Regulators could get in the way of this, however, and although the car could drive itself and be a great solution for ride-hailing, it might need to have these controls to hit the road in the future.

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SpaceX opens up free Starlink service for those impacted by Hurricane Melissa

Published

16 hours ago

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October 28, 2025

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(Credit: Starlink | X)

SpaceX is opening up its internet service, Starlink, to those impacted by Hurricane Melissa, as it made landfall in Jamaica and the Bahamas as a Category 5 storm.

Hurricane Melissa is expected to reach wind speeds of over 165 MPH over the next few days as it extends out into the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday and Friday.

Citizens in Jamaica and the Bahamas have been preparing for the storm for the past week, getting necessary goods together and preparing for the massive storm to arrive. It finally did yesterday, and the first images and video of the storm are showing that it could destroy many parts of both countries.

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Starlink is now being opened up for free until the end of November for those impacted by the storm in Jamaica and the Bahamas, SpaceX announced today:

It is a move similar to the one the company made last year as Hurricane Helene made its way through the United States, destroying homes and property across the East Coast. SpaceX offered free service for those impacted by the destruction caused by the storm.

The free Starlink service was available until the end of 2024.

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Elon Musk’s companies have also made similar moves to help out those who are impacted by natural disasters. Tesla has offered Free Supercharging in the past, most notably during the California wildfires.

Tesla and SpaceX’s LA fire relief efforts: Cybertrucks, free Starlink and more

One major advantage of Starlink is that it is available for use in situations like this one, where power might be required to operate things like a modem and router.

Internet access is a crucial part of survival in these situations, especially as it can be the last leg some stand on to get in touch with emergency services or loved ones.

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