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Waymo could dominate 60% of driverless taxi market by 2030
A report from investment bank UBS has revealed that Waymo would likely command up to 60% of the driverless taxi service market by 2030. According to the financial firm, Waymo’s dominance of the self-driving taxi industry could force the world’s prominent carmakers to adopt its autonomous technology.
UBS noted in its report that global revenues from self-driving taxi services could reach up to $2.8 billion per year by 2030. The financial firm further stated that Waymo’s lead in the driverless industry has managed to reach a point where only a few automakers, such as General Motors and Daimler, would likely be able to rival the Google-based company.
UBS expects that by 2030, 12% of cars sold will be used for driverless taxi fleets, with a total of 26 million autonomous vehicles in operation. As a result of the emergence of driverless vehicles, the investment bank expects that private car sales will see a 5% decline, according to a report from The Manufacturer.
The advent of self-driving taxi services will not happen in the next few years, however, according to UBS’ recent report. Depending on the public’s acceptance of the technology, the financial firm expects that demand for self-driving vehicles will really take off around 2026. The bank also predicts that the adoption of the technology will vary between different markets. So far, however, UBS states that Waymo currently stands as the company that could benefit most from the emerging self-driving taxi market, considering that Google has been committed to the technology for years.
“Unlike most auto players, Google focused on full self-driving technology from the very beginning — more than five years before the auto industry started working on it,” the report noted.
UBS’ report on Waymo may very well prove to be accurate. The company, after all, has already garnered 5 million miles of physical testing and 5 billion miles of virtual testing. More vehicles are being added to its fleet as well. Earlier this year, CEO John Krafcik unveiled the company’s latest car in its fleet — the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE. According to the CEO, Waymo is hoping to deploy as many as 20,000 I-PACE driverless taxis within two years of the vehicle’s production.
While Waymo has a lead in driverless systems for now, Tesla’s planned ride-sharing network might prove to be a surprise competitor in the autonomous taxi market. During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk noted that the Tesla Network, a system that enables electric car owners to deploy their vehicles for ride-sharing, would be akin to a “hybrid of Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb.”
“It’s sort of like a combination of Uber, Lyft and Airbnb type of thing, where you can own your car and have a higher percent usage of an autonomous electric car. You can say it’s available generally to anyone who wants to use it when you’re not using it. You can recall it at will. You can restrict usage to only friends and family or only users who are 5-star.”
Musk, however, noted that Tesla must first develop and refine its Full Self Driving suite before such a service is rolled out. Nevertheless, Musk stated that Tesla is making good progress in the development of its autonomous driving suite.
News
Tesla hosts Rome Mayor for first Italian FSD Supervised road demo
The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets.
Tesla definitely seems to be actively engaging European officials on FSD’s capabilities, with the company hosting Rome Mayor Roberto Gualtieri and Mobility Assessor Eugenio Patanè for a hands-on road demonstration.
The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets. This comes amid Tesla’s push for FSD’s EU regulatory approvals in the coming year.
Rome officials experience FSD Supervised
Tesla conducted the demo using a Model 3 equipped with Full Self-Driving (Supervised), tackling typical Roman traffic including complex intersections, roundabouts, pedestrian crossings and mixed users like cars, bikes and scooters.
The system showcased AI-based assisted driving, prioritizing safety while maintaining flow. FSD also handled overtakes and lane decisions, though with constant driver supervision.
Investor Andrea Stroppa detailed the event on X, noting the system’s potential to reduce severe collision risks by up to seven times compared to traditional driving, based on Tesla’s data from billions of global fleet miles. The session highlighted FSD’s role as an assistance tool in its Supervised form, not a replacement, with the driver fully responsible at all times.
Path to European rollout
Tesla has logged over 1 million kilometers of testing across 17 European countries, including Italy, to refine FSD for local conditions. The fact that Rome officials personally tested FSD Supervised bodes well for the program’s approval, as it suggests that key individuals are closely watching Tesla’s efforts and innovations.
Assessor Patanè also highlighted the administration’s interest in technologies that boost road safety and urban travel quality, viewing them as aids for both private and public transport while respecting rules.
Replies on X urged involving Italy’s Transport Ministry to speed approvals, with one user noting, “Great idea to involve the mayor! It would be necessary to involve components of the Ministry of Transport and the government as soon as possible: it’s they who can accelerate the approval of FSD in Italy.”
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) blows away French journalist after test ride
Cadot described FSD as “mind-blowing,” both for the safety of the vehicle’s driving and the “humanity” of its driving behaviors.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) seems to be making waves in Europe, with French tech journalist Julien Cadot recently sharing a positive first-hand experience from a supervised test drive in France.
Cadot, who tested the system for Numerama after eight years of anticipation since early Autopilot trials, described FSD as “mind-blowing,” both for the safety of the vehicle’s driving and the “humanity” of its driving behaviors.
Julien Cadot’s FSD test in France
Cadot announced his upcoming test on X, writing in French: “I’m going to test Tesla’s FSD for Numerama in France. 8 years I’ve been waiting to relive the sensations of our very first contact with the unbridled Autopilot of the 2016s.” He followed up shortly after with an initial reaction, writing: “I don’t want to spoil too much because as media we were allowed to film everything and I have a huge video coming… But: it’s mind-blowing! Both for safety and for the ‘humanity’ of the choices.”
His later posts detailed FSD’s specific maneuvers that he found particularly compelling. These include the vehicle safely overtaking a delivery truck by inches, something Cadot said he personally would avoid to protect his rims, but FSD handled flawlessly. He also praised FSD’s cyclist overtakes, as the system always maintained the required 1.5-meter distance by encroaching on the opposite lane when clear. Ultimately, Cadot noted FSD’s decision-making prioritized safety and advancement, which is pretty remarkable.
FSD’s ‘human’ edge over Autopilot
When asked if FSD felt light-years ahead of standard Autopilot, Cadot replied: “It’s incomparable, it’s not the same language.” He elaborated on scenarios like bypassing a parked delivery truck across a solid white line, where FSD assessed safety and proceeded just as a human driver might, rather than halting indefinitely. This “humanity” impressed Cadot the most, as it allowed FSD to fluidly navigate real-world chaos like urban Paris traffic.
Tesla is currently hard at work pushing for the rollout of FSD to several European countries. Recent reports have revealed that Tesla has received approval to operate 19 FSD test vehicles on Spain’s roads, though this number could increase as the program develops. As per the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), Tesla would be able to operate its FSD fleet on any national route across Spain. Recent job openings also hint at Tesla starting FSD tests in Austria. Apart from this, the company is also holding FSD demonstrations in Germany, France, and Italy.
Tesla Optimus showed off its newest capability as progress on the project continues to accelerate toward an ultimate goal of mass production in the coming years.
Tesla is still developing Optimus and preparing for the first stages of mass production, where units would be sold and shipped to customers. CEO Elon Musk has always marketed the humanoid robot as the biggest product in history, even outside of Tesla, but of all time.
He believes it will eliminate the need to manually perform monotonous tasks, like cleaning, mowing the lawn, and folding laundry.
However, lately, Musk has revealed even bigger plans for Optimus, including the ability to relieve humans of work entirely within the next 20 years.
JUST IN: Elon Musk says working will be ‘optional’ in less than 20 years because of AI and robotics. pic.twitter.com/l3S5kl5HBB
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) November 30, 2025
Development at Tesla’s Artificial Intelligence and Robotics teams has progressed, and a new video was shown of the robot taking a light jog with what appeared to be some pretty natural form:
Just set a new PR in the lab pic.twitter.com/8kJ2om7uV7
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 2, 2025
Optimus has also made several public appearances lately, including one at the Neural Information Processing Systems, or NeurIPS Conference. Some spectators shared videos of Optimus’s charging rig, as well as its movements and capabilities, most interestingly, the hand:
You have to hand it to Elon 🤟 pic.twitter.com/fZKDlmGAbe
— Ric Burton · NeurIPS 2025 (@_ricburton) December 2, 2025
The hand, forearm, and fingers have been one of the most evident challenges for Tesla in recent times, especially as it continues to work on its 3rd Generation iteration of Optimus.
Musk said during the Q3 Earnings Call:
“I don’t want to downplay the difficulty, but it’s an incredibly difficult thing, especially to create a hand that is as dexterous and capable as the human hand, which is incredible. The human hand is an incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more incredible you realize it is, and why you need four fingers and a thumb, why the fingers have certain degrees of freedom, why the various muscles are of different strengths, and fingers are of different lengths. It turns out that those are all there for a reason.”
The interesting part of the Optimus program so far is the fact that Tesla has made a lot of progress with other portions of the project, like movement, for example, which appears to have come a long way.
However, without a functional hand and fingers, Optimus could be rendered relatively useless, so it is evident that it has to figure this crucial part out first.
Tesla hosts Rome Mayor for first Italian FSD Supervised road demo
Tesla FSD (Supervised) blows away French journalist after test ride
