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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.
#Model3 Mania: "[Expecting] 100+ people lined up outside the store before they open, and handle around 50/hour" — https://t.co/3289BxKpjK
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 24, 2016
Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of 53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.
There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?
With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.
More Tesla Model 3 News
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Tesla eyes two new states for Robotaxi

Tesla has officially shown that it is eyeing two new states for Robotaxi operation in the U.S., as it hopes to add the new areas to its ever-growing list of places where the suite is either active or in the testing phase.
Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.
In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.
Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.
Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion
Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.
These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.
It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.
So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s advertising strategy takes a drastic turn, but some are questioning it

Tesla’s advertising strategy has taken a drastic turn as the company’s upcoming Shareholder Meeting will feature perhaps the most crucial vote in its history: the approval of CEO Elon Musk’s new pay package.
For years, the issue of Tesla’s advertising and marketing strategy has been a major point of conversation for investors in fans. It seems to be split right down the middle, with half wanting Tesla to set aside some money for advertising. The other half, just the opposite.
Tesla has been transparent that the money it would spend on advertising, marketing, and public relations is better set aside for the development of future products.
However, it has recently adopted a different tone in advertising, pushing some commercials on social media platforms like X and Instagram.
For the first time, an ad was seen on streaming services like Paramount+, but it wasn’t promoting Tesla’s products directly. Instead, it was more of a message for shareholders to vote on Musk’s pay package, something Tesla feels is a necessity:
Well this is a first. Tesla is running paid ads on Paramount+ encouraging people to vote their $TSLA shares ahead of the annual shareholder meeting on November 6th.
“Tesla is on the precipice of its next wave of transformations growth, and we need your support; We urge you to… pic.twitter.com/FTo5eFQJRZ
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 14, 2025
“The future of Tesla is in your hands,” the ad reads at the end. It seems as if Tesla is taking whatever steps it needs to accomplish the task of getting Musk a new pay package and retaining him as its CEO.
On September 5, Tesla officially outlined its plans for a CEO Performance Award for Musk. It would require him to lift Tesla’s market capitalization to about $8.5 trillion, up from the $1.36 trillion it sits at today.
Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation
It is obvious that Tesla is really hoping to get the pay package passed and is willing to shift some of its budget to encourage shareholders to vote.
However, there are some interesting perspectives on the move, and it’s sort of strange to see Tesla not advertising its vehicles or products, but only its pay package that would get its CEO paid.
Some of those who saw the ad are questioning the strategy:
Definitely a sign of desperation for $TSLA. They wouldn’t need to beg for votes if the BOD just did their job and held Elon accountable for his actions in the past. His blatant disregard for Tesla’s brand and the actions he takes in the public eye are exactly why I voted NO.
— squawksquare (@squawksquare) October 14, 2025
Doesn’t this taste wrong to anyone else?
No ads for the business? Only for the CEOs pay package?
— Schrodinger’s Wealth (@BosCybertruck) October 14, 2025
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Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion

Tesla is validating Robotaxi in a new area, and as the company has continued to gain some additional permissions to begin testing in new states, it seems its Full Self-Driving-based ride-hailing project is moving toward a larger footprint.
Two Robotaxi units with LiDAR validation equipment were spotted in Gilbert, Arizona, recently, showing that Tesla is aiming to launch its ride-hailing service in the state soon:
TESLA ROBOTAXI SPOTTED VALIDATING IN GILBERT, AZ! :0 pic.twitter.com/kqtQEBwl8Y
— Greggertruck (@greggertruck) October 11, 2025
Another unit was spotted in Tempe, Arizona:
Spotted this one and another one behind it in Tempe, AZ. I also saw a pair driving from Mesa to Tempe. Looks like they’re validating the entire east valley. I haven’t seen any in the west valley yet. pic.twitter.com/gFWTHhmBLT
— TechCat (@elviswjr) October 12, 2025
These types of validation vehicles have been spotted in several areas ahead of their launch as a public ride-hailing service for passengers. Tesla first launched Robotaxi in Austin, Texas, back in late June, and since then, it has expanded to the Bay Area of California.
However, Tesla has continued to attempt to expand Robotaxi to other areas as well, including Nevada and Arizona. It has also been working toward approvals in other states based on job postings, as Tesla is hiring for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in New York and Florida, as well.
The expansion of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service has been an effort that Tesla has been spending a lot of time on over the past few months. CEO Elon Musk said the expansion aims to bring Robotaxi to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, but there is still plenty of work to be done.
Tesla Robotaxi heads to a new major Texas city for the first time
Tesla did make its Robotaxi app public in recent months, allowing more members of the public to experience the suite for themselves, as long as they could get to Austin or the Bay Area.
In the coming months, it seems more apparent that Tesla will take a broader focus on expanding Robotaxi, especially with the fact that these validation vehicles are being spotted throughout different parts of the United States.
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