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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.
#Model3 Mania: "[Expecting] 100+ people lined up outside the store before they open, and handle around 50/hour" — https://t.co/3289BxKpjK
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 24, 2016
Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of 53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.
There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?
With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.
More Tesla Model 3 News
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Tesla launches new color from Gigafactory Berlin

Tesla has launched a new color at Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, home of the company’s “world-class paint shop,” as Elon Musk once called it.
Bringing a new color to Tesla’s Model Y, there are now five available colors for those who will receive a vehicle from Gigafactory Berlin, with four of them being colors offered in other markets.
However, there is now one distinct color that is only available in Germany: Marine Blue.
🚨 Tesla has launched “Marine Blue” in select European countries
It is the third shade of blue Giga Berlin produces. It costs $1,500 pic.twitter.com/pVDWdNeBSJ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 10, 2025
Priced at €1,300, Marine Blue will cost the same as both Diamond Black and Stealth Grey, while Quicksilver and Ultra Red are available for double the price.
It is the third shade of blue Tesla offers across its lineup, as Deep Metallic Blue and Glacier Blue are also offered, but in other markets.
Tesla has routinely flexed Giga Berlin for having the most advanced paint shop throughout its factories, and it has produced some interesting colors over the past few years, some of which were truly awesome.
Tesla Giga Berlin is getting a world-class paint shop, new color ‘layers’ to come
In 2020, Musk said, “Giga Berlin will have the world’s most advanced paint shop, with more layers of stunning colors that subtly change with curvature.”
He also detailed the company’s plans to upgrade the Fremont and Shanghai paint shops. Gigafactory Texas was not yet unveiled. Tesla has worked to improve those facilities, especially in Fremont.
It was able to roll out the new Diamond Black color earlier this year.
However, Giga Berlin seems to remain the standard in terms of paint for Tesla. It routinely offers new colors.
For example, back in 2022, Tesla rolled out its familiar Quicksilver color for the Model Y, while also introducing Midnight Cherry Red, a color close to burgundy. However, the company chose to discontinue the color after determining internally that customers no longer wanted to buy it.
Midnight Cherry Red was removed as an option earlier this year, likely to make way for the development of the new Marine Blue.
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Tesla Autopilot visualization gets big upgrade with tons of new additions
The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.

Tesla’s Autopilot visualization just got a big upgrade as the company added tons of new additions to what it will be able to render in terms of a vehicle’s surroundings.
The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.
Tesla just fixed a four-year-old bug with Full Self-Driving visualization
However, it still does not have every single application, and acquiring them will take some time. If an object or vehicle is visible to the vehicle but an accurate render is not available, the car will instead pick whatever is closest.
For example, I passed an Amish family yesterday in Lancaster, PA, and instead of illustrating the horse and carriage, it simply showed a small box truck.
In an effort to make the Autopilot and Full Self-Driving suites more robust and accurate, Tesla has added a substantial amount of vehicle renders, which will become available in the coming weeks.
The visualizations were found by Tesla hacker @greentheonly, who posted them on X.
The new visualization renders are:
- Ambulance
- Firetruck
- Garbage Truck
- Schoolbus
- European Semi Truck
- Golf Cart
- Person on a Scooter
- Person on a Skateboard
- Stroller
- Street Sweeper
- Three-Wheeler
- Trailer
- Train
- Tram
- Person in a Wheelchair
Here is an image with all of the Autopilot visualization renders:

Credit: Green
The visualization is a crucial part of manual operation and can be considered a distinct advantage that Tesla has over other companies.
It continues to be an effort that Tesla invests heavily in, as it keeps refining the suite and making it more robust with additional visualizations and animations.
Recently, it was revealed that Tesla is planning to utilize Unreal Engine for driver visualization to create a realistic depiction of the vehicle’s environment. Tesla has not yet confirmed this, but coding found with the Model S and Model X showed it could be coming in the near future.
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Tesla dominates best-selling EVs in Q3, but there’s one disappointment

Tesla dominated the sales figures for electric vehicles in the third quarter in the United States, but there was one disappointment: the Cybertruck.
As a whole, the EV industry benefitted from the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit in Q3, which was something many expected. As the credit expired, consumers rushed to showrooms to take the credit and remove $7,500 from the purchase price of their new vehicle.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
It was a very interesting time for many companies as they scrambled to figure out how to push as many vehicles out the door as they could in preparation for the tax credit’s removal. In typical fashion, Tesla was able to top every manufacturer and secure a dominating portion of the overall market in Q3.
However, some other OEMs pulled out some surprises, including Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford, which managed to get two vehicles in the top 10, as many as Tesla.
Cox Automotive compiled the data in its Q3 Electric Vehicle Sales Report:
- Tesla Model Y – 114,897
- Tesla Model 3 – 53,857
- Chevrolet Equinox EV – 25,085
- Hyundai Ioniq 5 – 21,999
- Honda Prologue – 20,236
- Ford Mustang Mach-E – 20,177
- Volkswagen ID.4 – 12,470
- Audi Q6 e-tron – 10,299
- Ford F-150 Lightning – 10,005
- Rivian R1S – 8,184
10.5 percent of the automotive sales in the U.S. in Q3 were electric, a new record that surpasses that of Q3 2024, where the total share of sales for EVs was 8.6 percent.
Now, the disappointment that is evident from this list is the fact that there is no Tesla Cybertruck listed. That’s because it was the second-best-selling EV pickup on the market. The company sold 5,385 Cybertruck units in Q3.
The Cybertruck has been a vehicle that has confused many Tesla fans and owners, especially considering the company had such stratospheric expectations for the vehicle while it was in development. Reservation trackers had the truck sitting between one million and two million orders, but it has not lived up to that.
Pricing is the main issue with Cybertruck. Tesla introduced the pickup with Single, Dual, and Tri-motor configurations, priced at $39,990, $49,990, and $69,990. Those price points are simply a thing of the past.
🚨 Tesla Cybertruck was the second-best-selling EV pickup in Q3, Cox Automotive data shows.
It was only outsold by the Ford F-150 Lightning, which sold 10,005 units for the quarter.
Cybertruck had 5,385 sales. pic.twitter.com/Q2gnUbF6bk
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 13, 2025
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