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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

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Tesla Model 3 logo

Tesla Model 3 logo

 

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.

Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process  a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of  53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.

There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?

With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.

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Why Tesla’s Q4 performance could shock many after incredible Q3

There is still some residual impact to be felt as we enter Q4, and there is a potential shock coming to many investors as it could be stronger than what many think:

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla reported vehicle deliveries and energy deployments for the third quarter of 2025 today, blowing analyst estimations from Wall Street firms completely out of the water with its strongest three-month performance in company history.

The strong performance, which resulted in nearly half a million vehicle deliveries in the quarter, was largely driven by the momentum of the EV tax credit, which expired at the end of September, marking the end of the $7,500 discount that was previously available.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

This was a massive contributor to Tesla’s record-high in vehicle deliveries, as consumers rushed to take advantage of the credit.

There is still some residual impact to be felt as we enter Q4, and there is a potential shock coming to many investors as it could be stronger than what many think:

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EV Tax Credit Deliveries Will Continue Through Q4

Despite the credit’s expiration, people will still be able to take advantage of it because the IRS changed the rules mid-quarter.

Prospective buyers can utilize the credit after September 30 if they place an order for an EV and make a marginal payment on the car.

Tesla’s $250 order deposit qualified as the marginal payment, so as long as the order was submitted before the end of the day on September 30, they could still take delivery in Q4 or even Q1 and still take advantage of the credit.

Tesla set to win big after IRS adjusts EV tax credit rules

With the Model Y Performance launching in the U.S. on September 30, that undoubtedly contributed to some orders. However, there are likely many people who ordered in the latter portion of Q3 and have not yet taken delivery. These will all contribute to Q4 delivery figures.

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Seasonal Holiday Boost

Tesla traditionally has its strongest quarters in Q4, as the company typically introduces initiatives such as price cuts, incentives, and other offers to close out the year strong.

Car buyers are more likely to jump at these offers as well, as gifts for either themselves or others. What Tesla does in the final quarter of the year is usually boosted by whatever types of offers it can make.

Affordable Model Production Ramp

Tesla is likely preparing for the launch of its affordable model, which is essentially a stripped-down Model Y.

Some rumors have been circulating within the community, indicating that the company is nearing the sale of this vehicle, which is coded within Tesla’s website as the “Model Y Standard.”

If Tesla is able to lock in some good pricing on its affordable model, Tesla could see its quarterly figures return to QoQ growth, something that the company has not had in a few years.

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Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

As per Tesla’s Q3 2025 vehicle delivery and production report, the bulk of the company’s numbers came from its mass-market lineup.

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported record-breaking results for the third quarter of 2025, producing 447,450 vehicles and delivering 497,099 units worldwide. 

The company also deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products, setting a new record in its fast-growing energy business.

Model 3/Y domination

As per Tesla’s Q3 2025 vehicle delivery and production report, the bulk of the company’s numbers came from its mass-market lineup. The Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover accounted for 435,826 units produced and 481,166 delivered in the quarter. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model 3 and Model Y are still premium-priced vehicles with numerous competitors that are significantly more affordable.

Other models, including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, contributed 11,624 vehicles produced and 15,933 delivered. Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business posted its best quarter to date, deploying 12.5 GWh of storage systems.

Credit: Tesla

Q3 2025 earnings call date

Tesla’s third-quarter results are extremely impressive, and they exceed Wall Street’s estimates by a significant margin. As per Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg, who had a delivery estimate of 442,000 vehicles in Q3, Wall Street consensus was at 448,000 units. Even more optimistic analysts estimated that Tesla would only post deliveries in the mid-460,000s.

Investors will gain further insight later this month when Tesla reports full financials for the quarter. The company will release Q3 2025 earnings after market close on October 22, followed by a Q&A webcast at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk is halfway towards becoming the world’s first trillionaire

Musk’s fortune remains heavily tied to Tesla, which has rallied nearly 100% since April.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing/X

Elon Musk has reached a new milestone by becoming the first individual in history to achieve a net worth of $500 billion. ForbesReal-Time Billionaires tracker confirmed the record Wednesday afternoon after Tesla stock gained nearly 4%, adding an estimated $9.3 billion to Musk’s net worth in a single day. 

He now sits more than $150 billion ahead of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, whose net worth also stands at a very impressive $350 billion.

Tesla stock leads wealth surge

Musk’s fortune remains heavily tied to Tesla, which has rallied nearly 100% since April, when the CEO announced he would step back from outside roles to focus more on the EV maker. The company’s market capitalization is back within 10% of its all-time peak, lifting the value of Musk’s 12% stake to about $191 billion. 

Beyond this, his 2018 compensation package, which was rescinded by a Delaware judge last year but is still under appeal, could unlock additional stock worth more than $130 billion if reinstated, Forbes noted. Investors see Musk’s refocused leadership as a stabilizing force for Tesla as it pursues ambitious global growth. Tesla has also proposed a new compensation plan for Musk that could bring the company’s market cap to $8.5 trillion and add an additional $900 billion to the CEO’s net worth. 

SpaceX and xAI boost portfolio value

While Tesla drives much of his wealth, Musk’s stakes in SpaceX and xAI have added significant upside to his net worth. SpaceX, his private rocket company, recently hit a $400 billion valuation in a private tender offer, valuing Musk’s 42% stake at $168 billion. Meanwhile, xAI Holdings, which merged with social platform X earlier this year, is worth an estimated $113 billion, giving Musk another $60 billion on paper. 

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These ventures, combined with Tesla’s resurgence, have pushed Musk’s net worth past the half-trillion-dollar mark and highlighted his reach across multiple industries, from clean energy to space, artificial intelligence, brain implants, and tunneling.

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