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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

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Tesla Model 3 logo

Tesla Model 3 logo

 

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.

Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process  a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of  53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.

There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?

With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.

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Tesla Gigafactory Texas builds its half millionth vehicle

The milestone was shared via Twitter/X by the official @Gigafactories account.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing/X

Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas has officially rolled out its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant achievement in the factory’s history and reinforcing its role as a central hub in Tesla’s vehicle manufacturing network. 

The milestone was shared via Twitter/X by the official @Gigafactories account. “Congratulations to the Giga Texas team for building 500k vehicles,” the company’s X post read.

As could be seen in Tesla Manufacturing’s post, the Gigafactory Texas team celebrated the milestone by posting for a photograph with the facility’s half millionth unit, a white Tesla Model Y. The team held balloons that spelled “500K” on its commemorative photo. 

Giga Texas, located near Austin, has ramped its operations since its launch, producing Tesla’s Cybertruck and Model Y. Crossing the half-million vehicle mark solidifies the facility’s importance to Tesla’s overall operations, especially considering the fact that the Model Y is the company’s best-selling vehicle.

While Giga Texas is just producing the Model Y and the Cybertruck for now, the facility is also poised to produce the Cybercab. The Cybercab is expected to be Tesla’s highest volume vehicle, with Elon Musk estimating that the company would be producing about 2 million units of the autonomous two-seater per year. 

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The Cybercab is unlike any vehicle that is currently produced today, and its production would be quite extraordinary. As per Elon Musk’s previous comments, the Cybercab’s manufacturing line would not look like an automotive production line at all. Instead, Musk noted that the Cybercab’s line in Gigafactory Texas would resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line instead.

“We do want to scale up production to new heights obviously with the Cybercab. Cybercab is not just revolutionary car design. It’s also a revolutionary manufacturing process. So I guess we probably don’t talk about that enough, but if you’ve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesn’t look like a normal car manufacturing line. It looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line,” Musk previously stated.

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Tesla reportedly places large order for robot parts, hinting that Optimus V3 design is all but finalized

Tesla has reportedly placed a large order of linear actuators for humanoid robots from a Chinese supplier.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla might have all but finalized the design for its Optimus V3 humanoid robot, at least if rumors from China prove accurate. As per recent reports, Tesla has reportedly placed a large order of linear actuators for humanoid robots from a Chinese supplier, with deliveries expected sometime in the first quarter of 2026.

The volume of orders suggested by the reports from China suggests that the components will not just be used for Optimus prototypes.

The rumor

As noted in a report from Sina News, media outlets across China have recently reported that Tesla has placed a $685 million (5 billion RMB) order for linear actuators from Sanhua Intelligent Controls. The components will reportedly be used for the production of Optimus, which will likely be mass-produced in its V3 iteration. The reports claimed that the delivery of the actuators will likely start sometime in the first quarter of 2026. 

Industry watchers have estimated that such a volume would be enough for about 180,000 Optimus robots. This suggests that while Tesla might not be able to start the initial production of its humanoid robots this year, the electric vehicle maker might be able to hit the ground running with its Optimus production next year. And as hinted at by Elon Musk’s comments on X, Tesla seems to be preparing to produce Optimus V3 en masse.

https://twitter.com/tslaming/status/1978311791890645146

Company comments

The reports of Tesla’s alleged actuator orders have resulted in Sanhua Intelligent Controls’ stock rising. Interestingly enough, a Tesla China representative has stated that “no official information about this order that could be disseminated externally.” A representative from Sanhua, on the other hand, simply stated that the company’s robotics business is progressing smoothly, but they could not comment on market rumors. 

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While these reports are rumors for now, there are some optimistic hints that Tesla might have all but finalized the design for Optimus V3, and the company might be looking to start the robot’s production. For one, Sanhua is already a Tesla supplier, providing components for the company’s electric cars. A report from The Information also alleged that Tesla is no longer looking to produce 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025. This was reportedly due to challenges in the robot’s hands.

If Tesla is really starting to order large volumes of components for Optimus’ production, it would suggest that the company might have overcome the challenges it was facing with the humanoid robot earlier this year. It would then not be farfetched if Tesla were able to start the initial production of Optimus V3 next year.

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Tesla eyes two new states for Robotaxi

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla has officially shown that it is eyeing two new states for Robotaxi operation in the U.S., as it hopes to add the new areas to its ever-growing list of places where the suite is either active or in the testing phase.

Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.

Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.

Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion

Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.

These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.

It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.

So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.

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