On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
News
Tesla Europe builds momentum with expanding FSD demos and regional launches
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla is putting in some serious effort into boosting sales in Europe this year.
Tesla has been notably active across Europe in recent weeks, expanding its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) ride-along program, entering a new market, and showcasing its newest vehicles across multiple regions.
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla is putting in some serious effort into boosting sales in Europe this year.
Tesla Europe recently announced the expansion of its FSD (Supervised) ride-along experiences, inviting the public to experience the system on local roads. Initially available in Italy, France, and Germany when it launched, the program has now expanded to Hungary, Finland, and Spain.
The ride-along program allows participants to ride in the passenger seat and observe how FSD Supervised handles real-world traffic scenarios, including dense urban driving and other challenging conditions. Tesla has positioned the initiative as a way to familiarize European drivers and regulators with the system’s capabilities in everyday use. The program has received positive reviews so far, with many being impressed by FSD’s real-world capabilities.
Tesla also recently launched operations in Slovakia with a pop-up store and multi-day public event in Bratislava, as noted in an EV Wire report. The launch, held from January 16 to 18 at the Eurovea Mall Promenade, featured test drives, vehicle displays, including the Cybertruck, as well as family-focused attractions such as a mini-Tesla racetrack.
Local observers noted that Tesla Optimus was also shown at the event, while the Tesla Owners Slovakia club welcomed the brand with a coordinated light show near the Slovak National Theater. Tesla Europe later shared its appreciation for Slovakia in a post on its official social media account on X, stating, “Thanks, Slovakia, for the amazing last 3 days & for giving us such a warm welcome!”
Tesla’s Slovakia entry follows a familiar pattern used by the company in other European markets. Tesla opened a pop-up store in Bratislava as an initial step, with plans for a permanent showroom and a potential service center at a renovated site previously occupied by a Jeep and Dodge dealership. Tesla has used a similar approach in markets such as Czechia and Lithuania, where permanent facilities followed within a few months of pop-up launches.
Slovakia already has six Supercharging sites totaling 46 Superchargers, including two locations in Bratislava, providing early infrastructure support for Tesla owners. Tesla staff program manager Supratik Saha described the Slovakia launch as a strategic expansion in the heart of the EU, citing the country’s strong automotive manufacturing base and appetite for advanced technology.
Beyond the EU, the company also marked another milestone with the first Cybertruck deliveries in the United Arab Emirates, signaling continued geographic expansion for Tesla’s newest vehicle. Just like Tesla Slovakia, the Cybertruck also received a warm welcome from the UAE’s EV community.
News
Tesla Sweden maintains Trelleborg port deal despite union blockade
As noted in a report from Dagens Arbete (DA), Tesla was able to maintain its storage agreement with the Port of Trelleborg.
Tesla Sweden is still storing vehicles at the Port of Trelleborg despite the ongoing blockades against the company from the country’s labor unions.
Tesla still at Port of Trelleborg
As noted in a report from Dagens Arbete (DA), Tesla was able to maintain its storage agreement with the Port of Trelleborg. This allows the company to keep vehicles at the port while imports into Sweden continue. This was despite the Transport Workers’ Union’s blockade, which was aimed at halting the loading and unloading of Tesla vehicles in the area.
Local union leader Jörgen Wärja, chairman of Transport and an employee representative on the port company’s board, confirmed that the agreement was still active. “The agreement has not been terminated. You want to have the money instead of having empty warehouses. I understand the reason, but I do not support it,” Wärja said
The local union leader also noted that he visited Tesla’s storage area earlier this week. “There were a lot of cars. I was surprised that there were so many, actually,” he said.
Tesla had been able to bring vehicles into Sweden via passenger ferries at Trelleborg, a method that unions said allowed the company to bypass the blockade, DA noted. According to estimates from IF Metall, the workaround enabled Tesla to deliver thousands of cars to Sweden each year.
Port defends decision
The Port of Trelleborg did not issue a comment on its current agreement with Tesla, but said it had complied with union sympathy measures. Documents reviewed by Swedish media showed that the contract with Tesla was being extended in six-month intervals.
Port CEO Malin Collin noted that the port would not discuss individual customer arrangements. “We do not go into details regarding any customer agreements. We have continuous dialogue with potential tenants, and this is not unique to any location,” Collin wrote in an email.
The CEO added that the port was following legal requirements related to the labor dispute. “We have taken note of the Transport Workers’ Union’s decision on sympathy measures and are of course following applicable legislation and the requirements placed on us as employers,” Collin said.
Jörgen Wärja, for his part, stated that the issue was not whether Tesla’s imports into Sweden could be fully stopped, but whether the port should provide logistical support to the electric vehicle maker during an active conflict. “The port shouldn’t have anything to do with Tesla at all, we believe,” he said. “It’s purely moral. Whether you honor a conflict or not. If you say you support Transport’s sympathetic actions against Tesla, it becomes a double standard.”
Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares insights on SpaceX and Tesla’s potential scale
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Elon Musk outlined why he believes Tesla and SpaceX ultimately dwarf their competitors, pointing to autonomy, robotics, and space-based energy as forces that fundamentally reshape economic scale.
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Space-based energy
In a response to a user on X who observed that SpaceX has a larger valuation than all six US defense companies combined, Musk explained that space-based industries will eventually surpass the total economic value of Earth. He noted that space allows humanity to harness roughly 100,000 times more energy than Earth currently uses, while still consuming less than a millionth of the Sun’s total energy output.
That level of available energy should enable the emergence and development of industries that are simply not possible within Earth’s physical and environmental constraints. Continuous solar exposure in space, as per Musk’s comment, removes limitations imposed by atmosphere, weather, and land availability.
Autonomy and robots
In a follow-up post, Elon Musk explaned that “due to autonomy, Tesla is worth more than the rest of the auto industry.” Musk added that this assessment does not yet account for Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. As per the CEO, once Optimus reaches scaled production, it could increase Earth’s gross domestic product by an order of magnitude, ultimately paving the way for sustainable abundance.
Even before the advent of Optimus, however, Tesla’s autonomous driving system already gives vehicles the option to become revenue-generating assets through services like the Tesla Robotaxi network. Tesla’s autonomous efforts seem to be on the verge of paying off, as services like the Robotaxi network have already been launched in its initial stages in Austin and the Bay Area.
Tesla Europe builds momentum with expanding FSD demos and regional launches
Tesla Sweden maintains Trelleborg port deal despite union blockade
