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SpaceX’s upgraded Super Heavy booster sails through first major test

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SpaceX’s first upgraded 33-engine Super Heavy booster appears to have passed a crucial test with surprising ease, boding well for a smooth qualification process.

Attempting that test so early on did not appear to be SpaceX’s initial plan. Instead, shortly before Super Heavy Booster 4’s third and likely final removal from Starbase’s ‘orbital launch mount’ (OLM) on March 24th, SpaceX transported a massive structural test stand from a Starbase storage yard to the orbital launch site (OLS), where technicians have focused on modifying nearby ground systems to support apparent structural testing of Super Heavy Booster 7. As of March 31st, all available evidence suggested that SpaceX was preparing that stand to verify Booster 7’s mechanical strength and simulate the major stresses it might experience before investing a significant amount of time and resources in qualification testing.

However, SpaceX appeared to change its plans at the last minute.

Instead of starting with structural testing, after a brief two-day pause, SpaceX rolled Super Heavy B7 into place and craned the giant booster onto the orbital launch mount on April 2nd. On April 3rd, the launch mount’s “quick disconnect” device connected Super Heavy to the pad’s ground systems. On April 4th, just two days after its installation on the OLM, Super Heavy B7 kicked off the first in a series of qualification tests that will determine when or if the booster ultimately supports Starship’s first orbital launch attempt.

If testing goes perfectly, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently stated that Starship and Super Heavy – likely Ship 24 and Booster 7 – could be ready for an inaugural orbital launch attempt as early as May 2022. SpaceX appears to have leaped headfirst into Super Heavy Booster 7 qualification testing in a move that significantly increases the likelihood of meeting that extremely ambitious schedule. Normally, with a first-of-its-kind prototype debuting multiple significant design changes, SpaceX would start slow, possibly beginning with a basic pneumatic proof test to verify structural integrity at flight pressures – about 6.5-8.5 bar (95-125 psi) – with benign nitrogen gas before calling it a day.

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With Booster 7, SpaceX likely still performed a quick pneumatic proof but then immediately proceeded into a full-scale cryogenic proof test. With Super Heavy B4, for example, SpaceX performed several increasingly ambitious cryogenic proof tests, filling the booster more and more each attempt but never actually topping it off. On Booster 7’s very first day of testing and first cryogenic proof attempt, SpaceX fully loaded the upgraded Super Heavy with a cryogenic fluid (likely liquid nitrogen) in just two hours – all with no significant unplanned holds (pauses).

In those two hours, SpaceX likely loaded Super Heavy B7’s liquid methane (LCH4) and oxygen (LOx) tanks with roughly 3400 metric tons (~7.5M lb) of liquid nitrogen (LN2) – not far off what Super Heavy would actually weigh at liftoff. At the peak of the test, Booster 7 was almost entirely covered in a thin layer of ice produced as the cryogenic liquid inside its tanks froze water vapor in the humid South Texas air onto its skin – an effect that effectively turns uninsulated cryogenic rockets into giant fill gauges. On top of running into no apparent issues, Super Heavy B7’s first cryogenic proof is also the first time any Super Heavy prototype has been fully filled during testing – an important milestone for any rocket prototype, let alone the largest rocket booster ever built.

Completing a full cryogenic proof test on its first try makes Booster 7 fairly unique among all Starship prototypes – not just Super Heavies. The contrast with Booster 4, which barely completed a handful of partial cryogenic proof tests in more than half a year spent at Starbase’s orbital launch site, is also extremely encouraging, suggesting that Booster 7 won’t be sitting inactive for months at a time.

Still, cryogenic proofing is just one of several important tests Booster 7 needs to complete. Even if the first test was nearly perfect and SpaceX doesn’t attempt one or several more cryoproofs with higher tank pressures or other tweaked variables, Super Heavy B7 needs to complete wet dress rehearsal testing (WDR) with flammable LCH4/LOx propellant and demonstrate autogenous pressurization (using heated propellant gas to pressure its tanks). At some point, SpaceX will also need to install a full 33 Raptor V2 engines on the booster and seal off the whole engine section and each Raptor with a heat shield.

Booster 4’s 29 partially shielded Raptor engines. (Starship Gazer)
B4’s fully shielded engine section. (NASASpaceflight)
At the moment, B7 has no Raptors and no shielding installed. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Depending on how many Raptor V2 engines are available, SpaceX could begin static fire testing with just a few engines installed and shielded and then install the rest of the engines and heat shield later on. On the other hand, performing static fires without a full heat shield could risk damaging unprotected cabling or other subsystems, in which case wet dress rehearsal testing would likely follow immediately after cryoproofing and before engine or shield installation. After being skipped over, the structural test stand may also factor into Booster 7 qualification sometime before engine installation.

All told, plenty of uncertainty remains, but Super Heavy B7’s auspicious start suggests that the Booster 4 experience is far from a template and that SpaceX is much less interested in wasting time this time around.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it.

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Credit: Teslarati

The Tesla Cybercab has been spotted testing on public roads for the first time, marking a substantial step forward in the vehicle’s development.

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it:

The vehicle had a driver and side view mirrors equipped on it, which seems to be pretty expected, especially at this stage.

Tesla might have been using its Full Self-Driving software with the vehicle as it enters this new stage of testing on public roads. This seems most likely, especially as the car, which has long been developed to be void of a steering wheel and pedals, will totally rely on autonomous tech to transport one or two passengers to their destination.

Additionally, side view mirrors are required by law at delivery, and Tesla was likely looking to keep things as safe and elementary as possible, especially with this early stage of testing.

As this is the first time the vehicle has been spotted on public roads and the first time it was likely testing on them, Tesla was being cautious.

There have been a lot of developments with Cybercab over the past few weeks, as the car has been spotted testing on the Fremont Factory’s test track, units have been seen outside of Gigafactory Texas’s crash testing facility, and there has been some additional speculation about what the vehicle’s standard equipment will be.

There have also been quite a few job postings by Tesla for manufacturing and production roles related to Cybercab over the past few weeks.

Yesterday, Tesla’s Board Chair, Robyn Denholm, revealed that the company could end up building Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals, contrary to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have wanted to do.

Tesla Cybercab might be getting a huge change

The vehicle has yet to reach that stage of regulatory testing, but Tesla wants to start volume production in Q2. If it wants to release the vehicle without any manual controls, that means that Full Self-Driving will need to be completed within the next eight months.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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