Investor's Corner
Tesla achieved its biggest goal for 2023, even with a lackluster quarter
Tesla achieved its biggest goal for 2023, as it confirmed yesterday it reached the 1.8 million unit goal it had for the year, even with a lackluster quarter that slowed production and deliveries.
It proves the two million unit delivery mark it had set internally was not too far-fetched. If it had not upgraded lines at its factories in Q3, it might have eclipsed that more lofty goal.
Coming into 2023, Tesla wanted 1.8 million vehicles produced and delivered to customers. It seemed to be on track after Q1 and Q2, as the first half of the year saw over 920,500 cars produced, putting the company clear of the full-year goal by roughly 40,000 units, if things remained steady.
However, Tesla had a few tricks up its sleeves. After launching the new Model 3 “Highland” in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East in October, there was an indication there could be greater sales as the year went on. The introduction of the new Model 3 helped the company get repeat sales as some drivers looked to have the updated version of the company’s all-electric sedan. Additionally, Tesla has reported growth on a quarterly basis, but that idea went to the side in Q3, at least temporarily.
Tesla explains impact of line upgrades that caused drop in production numbers
Tesla said in Q2 that it would need to update lines at several factories, including Fremont and Shanghai, which are major contributors to the company’s production volume. As the company moved forward with its production goals, it knew that a slow Q3 would make Q4 one of the most challenging yet.
Q3 saw a decrease from over 479,000 produced vehicles to just over 430,000, a sizeable decrease of just under 10 percent. It presented a major challenge for Tesla moving into Q4.
As Wedbush wrote in a note yesterday to investors, Tesla had to “come out swinging” in Q4, and in order to reach the 1.8 million mark, it would have to trigger demand through a variety of means. While Cybertruck deliveries began in late November, the impact the pickup had on delivery figures was abysmal, as volume production has yet to begin, and only a few handfuls of units made their way to customers.
Instead, Tesla incentivized vehicle purchases with a variety of tried-and-true promotions. Free Supercharging and $1,000 discounts to Cybertruck reservation holders were a few that deserve recognition. Price cuts also helped the Model S and Model X regain some of the momentum they once had, as they had the best quarterly numbers in five years.
The strategies helped Tesla gain some serious momentum in terms of sales, and it had its strongest quarter yet. Just over 5,000 units away from reaching 500,000 vehicles produced for the quarter, Tesla flexed its muscles to eclipse 1.8 million. The possibility that it could have reached two million units seems more unlikely, considering it was still over 150,000 units shy, and the difference between a normal Q3 and the Q3 that Tesla delivered this year was roughly 40,000 units.
Tesla could have been close to 1.9 million without the slow Q3, and eclipsing its yearly goal by 100,000 units would have proved to be a huge win. Moving forward, Tesla will introduce the Model 3 Highland in the United States soon, and it also will continue to ramp up production of the Cybertruck.
Moving forward, what is a number that is realistic for Tesla to make as a production goal for 2024?
I’d love to hear from you! How many cars do you expect Tesla to deliver in 2024? If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.