Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) could become cheaper to produce than gas cars within the next few years, in part due to Tesla Gigacasting techniques, as one research firm suggests.
In a press release shared on Thursday, research firm Gartner said it believes the upcoming generation of BEVs will be cheaper to produce on average than vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) by 2027. The news comes as many automakers are working to produce higher-volume, lower-cost BEVs in the coming years, with technology like Tesla’s Gigacasting techniques paving the way for cheaper production efforts.
“New OEM incumbents want to heavily redefine the status quo in automotive,” said Pedro Pacheco, Gartner’s VP of Research. “They brought new innovations that simplify production costs such as centralized vehicle architecture or the introduction of Gigacastings that help reduce manufacturing cost and assembly time, which legacy automakers had no choice to adopt to survive.”
The firm also expects production costs to drop more quickly than battery costs, ultimately resulting in BEVs reaching price parity more quickly than expected.
“This means BEVs will reach ICE cost parity much faster than initially expected, but at the same time, it will make some repairs of BEVs considerably costlier,” Pacheco added.
Tesla VP of Public Policy and Business Development Rohan Patel responded to the note on Saturday, noting how cheap the sticker prices on Tesla’s vehicles have become—especially when leasing.
“Today (not 2027), you can lease a Tesla Model 3 for $329/month and a Model Y for $379/month,” Patel wrote on X.
Today (not 2027) you can lease a @Tesla Model 3 for $329/month and a Model Y for $379/month.
The Tesla lineup has never been more affordable and that is a credit to the astounding level of efficiency and innovation from the design, engineering, supply chain, logistics and… https://t.co/SxmtJ23lgl
— Rohan Patel (@rohanspatel) March 9, 2024
Because of the soon-widespread use of new technology in production, Gartner predicts that the average cost of EV battery and serious accident repairs will increase by around 30 percent in the same timeframe. The firm adds that this could have other effects, such as more total write-offs following collisions and potentially even higher insurance premiums or refusal of coverage for certain kinds of vehicles.
The firm also predicts that as many as 15 percent of the electric vehicle (EV) makers founded in the last decade will either go bankrupt or be bought out by 2027, as market competition continues to increase with more options for consumers.
“This does not mean the EV sector is crumbling,” Pacheco said. “It is simply entering a new phase where companies with the best products and services will win over the remaining.”
Gartner expects EV shipments to reach 18.4 million units this year, increasing to 20.6 million units in 2025. However, it also says the market is shifting from the “gold rush” era of EVs to “survival of the fittest,” as governed by automakers’ abilities to meet early EV adopters’ needs.
EVs to increase almost tenfold by 2030 under current policies: IEA
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.
News
Tesla Cybercab tests seem to be ramping up again
Elon Musk has stated that he expects the company to achieve a run rate of 2 million Cybercabs annually.
Tesla seems to be ramping the tests of its autonomous two-seater, the Cybercab, once more. This was hinted at in recent drone footage from both the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Texas.
The fresh sightings of the Cybercab in the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas have renewed conversations about the vehicle potentially being built with manual controls today.
Fresh Cybercab tests
As noted by longtime drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer on social media platform X, he recently spotted a Cybercab driving on Giga Texas’ South River Road to the West side. Interestingly enough, the longtime Giga Texas watcher noted that this was the first Cybercab that he had seen conducting road tests in a while.
Over in the Fremont Factory, another Cybercab was spotted driving around the facility’s testing area. Similar to the Cybercab in the Giga Texas sighting, the vehicle that was spotted in the Fremont Factory seemed to be manually driven, at least based on the way it was being steered. This behavior has incited speculations among Tesla watchers that current Cybercab test units have manual controls, unlike their production version, which would have no steering wheel or pedals.
Cybercab production preparation
The sightings of Cybercabs around the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas bode well for the vehicle’s development and impending production. It does, if any, complement reports that Tesla has been busy setting up production equipment for Giga Texas’ Cybercab production line. At the same time, drone footage around the Giga Texas complex has also revealed that Tesla is stockpiling some Cybercab castings, a likely sign that initial test production of the vehicle might soon begin.
The Cybercab is expected to be Tesla’s highest volume vehicle, with CEO Elon Musk stating that he expects the company to achieve a run rate of 2 million Cybercabs annually. He also mentioned that the Cybercab will be easy to produce thanks to its Unboxed manufacturing process, so much so that its production would resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line instead of an automotive assembly line.
News
Tesla FSD gets first rave reviews from media outlets in Japan
As per the publication, FSD demonstrated excellent situational awareness and smooth control, at times even performing better than a human driver.
Tesla FSD may continue to get flak from mainstream media outlets in the United States, but in other countries such as Japan, Full Self-Driving is being welcomed with much appreciation.
This is, at least, as per recent reviews from domestic media outlets that have tried out the capabilities of FSD on real-world roads.
FSD gets recognition
FSD was recently reviewed by Japanese news outlet Nikkei, which experienced the system’s capabilities in Tokyo’s metropolitan area. As per the publication, FSD demonstrated excellent situational awareness and smooth control, at times even performing better than a human driver. FSD was also credited for properly reacting to sudden, unexpected things on the road.
As per the FSD review, for example, a bicyclist suddenly came barreling into a crosswalk at high speed from the Tesla’s blind spot. The vehicle recognized the cyclist immediately and responded in a safe and proper manner, prompting the reviewer to exclaim “Wow!” And when a vehicle ahead of the Tesla started backing up to perform a turnaround on a narrow street unexpectedly, FSD smoothly halted to avoid a collision. Overall, the reviewer noted that during the 30-minute drive, the Tesla Model 3 running FSD did not require a single intervention.
FSD’s impending Japan rollout
FSD is not yet rolled out in Japan, but the country seems to be paving the way for FSD to be released in the country. Just recently, reports emerged stating that Japan’s Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry has allowed artificial intelligence-powered vehicles to be retrofitted with a software update that could enable the activation of their self-driving features.
In a post on X, Tesla Board Member Hiro Mizuno noted that this decision is no small matter as it could pave the way for a smooth rollout of features like FSD to Tesla consumers in Japan. “The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s decision to allow retrofitting of autonomous driving through software updates is significant. Currently, Tesla is the only manufacturer actively pursuing this… this decision will make it easier for all manufacturers to introduce autonomous driving in Japan,” the former Tesla Board member wrote in his post.
News
Tesla extends Model Y L delivery estimates to December 2025
This suggests that the six-seat, all-electric crossover SUV has become fully sold out for both October and November.
Tesla’s new extended-wheelbase Model Y L seems to be getting a lot of traction in China. As per Tesla China’s order page, the estimated delivery date for new vehicle orders is now listed as December 2025.
This suggests that the six-seat, all-electric crossover SUV has become fully sold out for both October and November. This bodes well for the vehicle, considering that it is currently the most expensive trim of the Model Y available in China.
Model Y L demand
Launched in August and first delivered in September, the Model Y L seems to be gaining momentum among Chinese EV buyers who are looking for added space and flexibility in their family vehicles. The Model Y L features a six-seat configuration with a very comfortable second row and a third row that fits regular-sized adults. This makes it a good all-around family car.
While the initial weeks of Model Y L insurance registrations were quite low, the vehicle’s registrations have been picking up in recent weeks. As per recent reports, the Model Y L’s volumes have been growing so much that the vehicle has helped boost Tesla China’s wholesale numbers in September. Even more Model Y L units would likely be registered this October.
Strong local momentum
The Model Y L’s sellout streak highlights Tesla China’s continued strength in the world’s most competitive EV market. With new orders now having an estimated delivery date of December, it seems all but certain that Tesla China would be selling every Model Y L it produces this fourth quarter. This could then help bolster the company’s numbers this Q4 2025.
The Model Y L is only being sold in China for now, though the vehicle’s features and size would actually make it very competitive in markets where larger family EVs are in high demand. Priced from RMB 339,000 ($47,180), the crossover offers a blend of performance, practicality, and value that has seemingly struck a chord with consumers, both in China and potentially, even abroad.
Tesla Cybercab tests seem to be ramping up again
Tesla FSD gets first rave reviews from media outlets in Japan
Tesla extends Model Y L delivery estimates to December 2025
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