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Tesla at $420 is a bargain considering its Autopilot data is key to a self-driving future

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Questions continue to swirl around the fate of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the market waits for updates about Elon Musk’s initiative to make the company private. Tesla’s privatization, provided that it does go through, will be the largest one in history, amounting to around $70 billion at Musk’s target of $420 per share. While this amount is substantial, $420 is actually a pretty good deal for Tesla’s would-be funding partners, considering the volume of Autopilot data the company has gathered from its Model S, Model X and Model 3 fleet.

Tesla’s possible privatization has caused wild swings in Tesla’s stock price, though not too far a departure from its usual volatility. Upon Musk’s announcement, shares climbed up 11%, before falling back as reservations emerged from critics about the plausibility of the company’s privatization. On Thursday’s after-hours, Tesla stock recovered some of its losses as the company’s board of directors issued a statement stating that they would formally review Musk’s plans.

Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Loup Ventures believes that there is more than a 50% chance that Tesla would become a private company. Munster noted that while concerns about the possible repercussions of Musk’s go-private Twitter announcement might affect the stock, the effects would only be felt at the very short-term. Ultimately, the venture capital firm believes that neither Tesla nor Elon Musk is at legal risk, especially since the company stated on a 2013 Form 8-K  that social media might be used as an outlet for disseminating company information. Loup Ventures also estimates that Tesla would need around $25-$30 billion to take the electric car and energy company private.

If Loup Ventures’ calculations prove accurate, the entities providing the company with the funding to go private would be getting quite a deal at $420 per share. Apart from Tesla’s electric car and energy business — both of which are growing at an immense rate — investors would also be buying into a company that holds what could very well be automotive world’s most extensive amount of real-world driving data. As of July, a report from MIT’s Lex Fridman estimated that Tesla had acquired around 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and approximately 7.8 billion miles in Autopilot “Shadow Mode.”

In comparison, Waymo’s fleet of vehicles have driven a total of 5 million real-world miles in self-driving mode and an additional 5 billion miles in simulation as of May this year. GM Cruise, another leader in self-driving technology, does not release the numbers of its fleet, but accident and disengagement reports based on autonomous miles driven provide a rough estimate of the miles Cruise’s vehicles have traveled so far. Between June 2015 and November 2017, the California Department of Motor Vehicles estimated that GM Cruise’s self-driving cars covered a total of 141,691 miles in CA. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates Waymo to be worth $175 billion. GM Cruise, on the other hand, is valued at $11.5 billion after securing more funding from Softbank’s Vision Fund earlier this year.

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Tesla’s development of self-driving technologies has taken a backseat in the media coverage of the company, particularly during the past year as the company struggled with the Model 3 ramp. Regardless of this, Keith Wright, a professor from Villanova University, notes that Elon Musk’s decision to invest heavily in AI would likely pay off soon. Among the participants in the self-driving race, Tesla is the company with the most real-world experience. Elon Musk once noted that it would likely take around 6 billion real-world miles before regulators would approve self-driving technology. So far, Tesla is the company closest to that mark.

Tesla’s focus on data gathered from real-world miles was emphasized by Nidhi Kalra, a senior information scientist for the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization. According to the information scientist, simulations such as the ones used by Waymo to train its fleet of autonomous vehicles are a “simplification” of the real world.

“The problem with any simulator is that it’s a simplification of the real world. Even if it stimulates the world accurately, if all you’re simulating is a sunny day in Mountain View with no traffic, then what is the value of doing a billion miles on the same cul-de-sac in Mountain View? I’m not saying that’s what anyone’s doing but without that information we can’t know what a billion miles really means. Real-world miles still really, really matter. That’s where, literally, the rubber meets the road, and there’s no substitute for it,” Kalra said.

A look at the sensor range of an autonomous Tesla vehicle. [Credit: Tesla]

And Tesla is just getting started. In Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, the company provided an update on its efforts to develop its own self-driving hardware. According to Pete Bannon, who leads the development of Hardware 3, the company’s new hardware is different from the industry standard.

“We did a survey of all of the solutions that were out there for running neural networks, including GPUs. We went and talked to other people like at ARM that were building embedded solutions for running neural networks. And pretty much everywhere we looked, if somebody had a hammer, whether it was a CPU or a GPU or whatever, they were adding something to accelerate neural networks. But nobody was doing a bottoms-up design from scratch, which is what we elected to do.”

“We had the benefit of having the insight into seeing what Tesla’s neural networks looked like back then and having projections of what they would look like into the future, and we were able to leverage all of that knowledge and our willingness to totally commit to that style of computing to produce a design that’s dramatically more efficient and has dramatically more performance than what you can buy today.”

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Tesla could very well be approaching its most significant turning point in years. Regardless of whether Tesla becomes private or not, one thing seems sure — once Tesla starts rolling out its first full self-driving features, and once Hardware 3 makes it to the company’s fleet, leaders in the self-driving industry would probably be forced to recognize the presence of a new, possibly dominant player.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Board Chair slams Wall Street Journal over alleged CEO search report

Denholm’s comments were posted by Tesla on its official account on social media platform X.

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robyn-m-denholm-tesla
CeBIT Australia, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm has issued a stern correction to The Wall Street Journal after the publication posted a report alleging that the electric vehicle maker’s Board of Directors opened a search for a new CEO to replace Elon Musk.

Denholm’s comments were posted by Tesla on its official account on social media platform X. 

The WSJ’s Allegations

Citing people reportedly familiar with the discussions, the WSJ alleged that Tesla Board members reached out to several executive search firms to work on a formal process for finding Elon Musk’s successor. The publication also alleged that tensions had been mounting at Tesla due to the company’s dropping sales and profits, as well as the time Musk has been spending with DOGE.

The publication also alleged that Elon Musk had met with the Tesla Board about the matter, and that members told the CEO that he needed to spend more time on Tesla. Musk was reportedly instructed to state his intentions publicly as well. The CEO did not push back against the Board, the WSJ claimed. 

Elon Musk did announce that he is stepping back from his day-to-day role at the Department of Government Efficiency during the Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call. Musk’s announcement was embraced by Tesla investors and analysts, many of whom felt that the CEO’s renewed focus on the EV maker could push the company to greater heights. 

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Tesla and Musk’s Response

In response to The Wall Street Journal’s report, Tesla’s official account on X shared a comment from its Board Chair. In her comment, Denham noted that the WSJ‘s report was “absolutely false.” She also highlighted that Tesla had communicated this fact to the publication before the report was published, but the Journal ran the story anyway.

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published). The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead,” Denholm stated.

Elon Musk himself commented on the matter, stating that the publication showed an “extremely bad breach of ethics” since the report did not even include the Tesla Board of Directors’ denial of the allegations. “It is an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS that the WSJ would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors!” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Board member and Airbnb co-founder loads up on TSLA ahead of robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member’s purchase.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Board member and Airbnb Co-Founder Joe Gebbia has loaded up on TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Board member’s purchase comes just over a month before Tesla is expected to launch an initial robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member in a post on social media.

The TSLA Purchase

As could be seen in a Form 4 submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Gebbia purchased about $1.02 million worth of TSLA stock. This was comprised of 4,000 TSLA shares at an average price of $256.308 per share.

Interestingly enough, Gebbia’s purchase represents the first time an insider has purchased TSLA stock in about five years. CEO Elon Musk, in response to a post on social media platform X about the Tesla Board member’s TSLA purchase, gave a nod of appreciation for Gebbia. “Joe rocks,” Musk wrote in his post on X.

Gebbia has served on Tesla’s Board as an independent director since 2022, and he is also a known friend of Elon Musk. He even joined the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to help the government optimize its processes.

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Just a Few Weeks Before Robotaxi

The timing of Gebbia’s TSLA stock purchase is quite interesting as the company is expected to launch a dedicated roboatxi service this June in Austin. A recent report from Insider, citing sources reportedly familiar with the matter, claimed that Tesla currently has 300 test operators driving robotaxis around Austin city streets. The publication’s sources also noted that Tesla has an internal deadline of June 1 for the robotaxi service’s rollout, but even a launch near the end of the month would be impressive.

During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the robotaxi service that would be launched in June will feature autonomous rides in Model Y units. He also noted that the robotaxi service would see an expansion to other cities by the end of 2025. “The Teslas that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year,” Musk stated. 

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Investor's Corner

Tesla hints at ‘Model 2’ & next-gen EV designs

Tesla’s Q1 2025 update confirms new models this year, with production tied to existing factory lines. Could it be time for the Model 2 debut?

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(Credit: Tesla)

During its Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla executives hinted at the much-rumored “Model 2” and other next-gen EV designs.

Tesla slightly addressed whether or not it will be pushing forward with the debut of new models later this year in its latest earnings call. The company’s product development executive, Lars Moravy, shared some details about Tesla’s design process and the upcoming affordable models.

“We’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through, like, the last minute issues that pop up. We’re knocking them down one by one. At this point, I would say that the ramp might be a little slower than we had hoped initially…But there’s nothing that’s blocking us from starting production within the next, within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks.

“And I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so the flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles, and that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the, you know, the lowest price, to the market, within the constraints I just highlighted.”

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In January, Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja teased several new product introductions for this year. There is at least one product that most Tesla supporters and investors are hoping to see: the company’s affordable vehicles, which have been dubbed by the EV community as the “Model 2” or “Model Q.”

Before Tesla’s Robotaxi event last year, many speculated that the company would also unveil its affordable next-gen vehicle. Gene Munster from Deepwater had expected Tesla to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3 as its affordable vehicle during the Robotaxi event. In the end, Tesla unveiled its Robotaxi vehicle and its Robovan design.

It’s been a while since the Robotaxi event, and Tesla has kept mum about its affordable vehicle. Considering its Q1 2025 performance, TSLA investors look forward to catalysts that could boost the stock.

The “Model 2” has been labeled a potential catalyst for Tesla. As such, TSLA investors and supporters have been itching for news about the new affordable vehicle. The main questions surrounding the “Model 2” revolve around its design and price. Based on Moravy’s statement, the “Model 2’s” design will heavily depend on Tesla’s current assembly lines and supply chain structures.

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