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Sorry Jim Chanos, but the Tesla Model 3 is definitely not ‘looking to be a lemon’

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A lot of Tesla’s immediate future is tied to the Model 3. Elon Musk said as much in an interview last July, when he accurately described the Model 3 ramp as a “bet-the-company” situation. This means that if the Model 3 proves a success, Tesla could take a definitive step towards Elon Musk’s Master Plan; but if the vehicle fails, it would be catastrophic for the company.

The Model 3’s failure is something that Jim Chanos, arguably the most high-profile of Tesla’s short-sellers, is looking forward to. Chanos has taken an aggressive stance against the electric car company, never hesitating to express his belief that TSLA stock is worth $0. Over the years, the prominent short-seller has frequently attacked the electric car maker, pointing out Elon Musk’s alleged fraudulent activities and Tesla’s weaknesses as a company.

So far, Chanos’ bet against Tesla has not been paying off. His hedge fund, Kynikos Capital Partners, has not done very well since 2015, a time in which he held a short position against Solar City, and not long before he announced that he was shorting Tesla. Including a 9% loss through July of this year, Kynikos exhibited a net annualized return of 4.86% since 2015, compared with the S&P 500’s return of 12.17% during the same period.

Considering the high-stakes bet that Tesla took with the Model 3, the success of the electric car is something that would not do any favors for Kynikos’ already-embattled year. Chanos, for his part, noted in a recent interview with Institutional Investor that he still likes his odds on Tesla. He does, for one, believe that Elon Musk “handcuffed” himself by promising profitability during the second-half of 2018. He also believes that there are inherent problems with the Model 3, as shown in its production slowdowns in August and alleged issues with the vehicle.

“It’s looking to be a lemon,” Chanos said.

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The first Model 3 Performance Dual Motor rolls off the assembly line. [Credit: Elon Musk/Twitter]

As the third quarter draws to a close, the prominent short-seller’s thesis against Tesla would be put to the test. The electric car maker, after all, has set aggressive targets for itself this Q3, aiming to build 50,000-55,000 Model 3 during the quarter while attaining profitability. Whether Tesla could accomplish its ambitious objectives remains to be seen, but there is one thing that is starting to become evident — the Model 3 does not seem to be a lemon at all.

The electric car’s production issues are well-known, and the teething problems that Tesla exhibited in the vehicle’s initial run were evident, as shown by the first observations of teardown specialist Sandy Munro when he started tearing down an early-production Model 3. But even Sandy Munro eventually admitted that behind the inconsistent panel gaps and imperfect fit and finish issues of the early production Model 3 he tested, he was thoroughly impressed with Tesla’s battery technology, electronics, performance, and ride quality. Tesla’s fit and finish on the Model 3 has improved since the car that Munro tested rolled off the assembly line, and the vehicle has only gotten more praise since then.

The electric car, particularly the Model 3 Performance, has practically garnered unanimous praise from professional auto reviewers. Various auto journalists, from the Wall Street Journal to Car & Driver to Road & Track (to name a few), have praised the vehicle, with the consensus being that it is a car that can disrupt the high-performance sedan market dominated by longtime legends such as the BMW M3. 

The Tesla Model 3 gets crash tested by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. [Credit: NHTSA]

The Model 3 was given a flawless 5-Star safety rating by the Highway Traffic Safety Administration as well, garnering perfect scores in all categories and subcategories. Videos of the vehicle’s frontal crash, side crash, and rollover crash depicted the electric sedan providing ample protection for its driver and passengers during collisions. With the Model 3’s rating, all of Tesla’s vehicles currently in production now have the distinction of having 5-Star safety ratings from the NHTSA.

Recent reports from the Tesla community in both the United States and abroad also indicate that the company has adopted an aggressive delivery schedule for reservation holders, with centers reportedly conducting handovers until 10 p.m. Other reports further suggest that Tesla’s delivery centers are handing over up to 100 cars per day.

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Tesla’s capability to become profitable is linked to the Model 3, which would comprise the majority of its sales this quarter. A vote of confidence for this came in the form of analyses from a German teardown firm and Detroit’s Munro and Associates, both of which concluded that Tesla could make a profit with the Model 3. Munro, for one, noted after his teardown of the Long Range RWD Model 3 that the vehicle could give Tesla a 36% profit. More expensive trims, such as the Long Range Model 3 AWD and the Model 3 Performance, are likely even more profitable.

The third quarter is not yet finished, and much of Tesla’s production and delivery progress remains unknown. But all things considered, Jim Chanos’ bet against the Model 3 as a vehicle could very well end up being a disappointment for the esteemed short-seller.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s new $29B Tesla stock award gets strange synopsis from governance firm

Did CGI not realize that Tesla Shareholders supported Musk being paid not once, but twice?

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elon musk speaking
Credit: TED

Elon Musk was recently awarded around $29 billion in Tesla stock as the company’s Board of Directors is attempting to get its CEO paid after his original pay package was denied twice by the Delaware Chancery Court.

But a new and strange synopsis from the Corporate Governance Institute (CGI) says the award is potentially a strength move to “endorse the will of a powerful CEO.” The problem is, in the same sentence, the firm said the new award brings up a “question of whether the board exists to steward a company in the interests of all stakeholders.”

The problem with their new analysis of Musk’s pay package is that shareholders voted twice on Musk’s original pay package of $56 billion. They voted to give Musk that sum on two separate occasions.

Musk’s original $56 billion pay package was approved by shareholders twice; once in 2018 and once again last year. Last year’s vote was in response to Delaware Chancery Court Kathaleen McCormick’s decision to revoke the “unfathomable sum” from Musk.

Shareholders still showed support for Musk getting paid. Tesla said in its new award to the CEO that this is a way to give him compensation for the first time in seven years.

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CGI said in its note (via TipRanks):

“When a board builds its strategy around a single individual, it creates a concentration risk, not just operationally, but culturally and ethically. If that individual becomes a source of volatility, the company becomes fragile by design.”

What’s strange with this type of narrative is the fact that Tesla’s valuation has skyrocketed with Musk at the helm. Go back to 2020, and the stock is up over 200 percent. Since Musk’s $56 billion pay package was introduced in 2018, shares are up well over 1,000 percent.

Tesla engineer explains why Elon Musk deserves new pay package

Musk’s 2018 pay package was also not awarded to him without performance-based incentives. He was required to reach certain growth goals, all of which were accomplished through the launch of new vehicles and the advancements of its driver-assistance suites, like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

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It is tough to agree with CGI’s perception of Musk’s new pay plan, especially as it is much less than what shareholders voted on twice. Musk deserves to be paid for his contributions to Tesla.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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