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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation
It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?
A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.
As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.
For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO2 emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.
Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.
This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.
In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.
Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.
Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.
So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.
For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.
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Tesla China’s domestic sales fell 4.8% in 2025, but it’s not doom and gloom
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Tesla posted 625,698 retail vehicle sales in China in 2025, marking a 4.8% year-on-year decline as the EV maker navigated an increasingly competitive EV market and a major production transition for its best-selling vehicle.
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Retail sales slip amid Model Y transition
Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China were down from 657,102 units in 2024, when the company ranked third in the country’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market with a 6.0% share. In 2025, Tesla’s share slipped to 4.9%, placing it fifth overall, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
Part of the decline seemed tied to operational disruptions early in the year. Tesla implemented a changeover to the new Tesla Model Y in the first quarter of 2025, which required temporary production pauses at Giga Shanghai. That downtime reduced vehicle availability early during the year, weighing on the company’s retail volumes in China and in areas supplied by Giga Shanghai’s exports.
China remained one of Tesla’s largest markets, accounting for 38.24% of its global deliveries of 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. However, the company also saw exports from Giga Shanghai fall to 226,034 units, down nearly 13% year-on-year. It remains to be seen how much of this could be attributed to the Model Y changeover and how much could be attributed to other factors.
Strong December 2025 finish
While the full-year picture showed some contraction, Tesla closed 2025 on a high note. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla China delivered a record 93,843 vehicles domestically in China in December, its highest monthly total ever. That figure was up 13.2% from a year earlier and 28.3% higher than November.
The surge was driven in part by Tesla prioritizing domestic deliveries late in the year, allowing buyers to lock in favorable purchase tax policies. In December alone, Tesla captured 7.0% of China’s NEV market and a notable 12.0% share of the country’s battery-electric segment.
On a wholesale basis, Tesla China sold 851,732 vehicles in 2025, down 7.1% year-on-year. From this number, 97,171 were from December 2025 alone. Tesla Model 3 wholesale figures reached 312,738 units, a year-over-year decrease of 13.12%. The Tesla Model Y’s wholesale figures for 2025 were 538,994 units, down 3.18% year-over-year.
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Tesla Robovan’s likely first real-world use teased by Boring Company President
As per the executive, the vehicle will be used to move large crowds through Las Vegas during major events.
The Boring Company President Steve Davis has shared the most likely first real-world use for Tesla’s Robovan.
As per the executive, the vehicle will be used to move large crowds through Las Vegas during major events.
Tesla Robovan for high-demand events
During a feature with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Boring Company President Steve Davis stated that the Tesla Robovan will be used in Sin City once the Vegas Loop expands across the Strip and downtown and the fleet grows to about 1,200 Teslas.
At that scale, Robovans would primarily be deployed during predictable surges, such as game days and large shows, when many riders are traveling to the same destination at the same time.
“The second you have four (passengers) and you have to start stopping, the best thing you can do is put your smallest vehicle in, which is a car. But if you know people are going to the stadium because of a game, you’ll know an hour before, two hours before, that a lot of people are going to a game or a Sphere show, if you are smart about it, that’s when you put a high occupancy vehicle in, that’s when you put the Robovan in,” Davis said.
Vegas Loop expansion
Steve Davis’s Robovan comment comes amid The Boring Company’s efforts to expand the Vegas Loop’s airport service. Phase 1 of rides to Harry Reid International Airport began last month, allowing passengers to travel from existing Loop stations such as Resorts World, Encore, Westgate, and the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Phase 2 will add a 2.2-mile dual-direction tunnel from Westgate to Paradise Road. That section is expected to open within months and will allow speeds of up to 60 mph on parts of the route, while expanding the fleet to around 160 vehicles.
Future phases are expected to extend tunnels closer to airport terminals and add multiple stations along University Center Drive. At this point, the system’s fleet is expected to grow close to 300 Teslas. The final phase, an underground airport station, was described by Davis as the system’s “holy grail.” This, however, has no definite timeframe as of yet.
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Tesla seeks engineer to make its iOS Robotaxi app feel “magical”
It appears that Tesla is hard at work in ensuring that users of its Robotaxi service are provided with the best user experience possible.
Tesla is hiring an iOS Engineer for its Robotaxi app team, with the job posting emphasizing the creation of polished experiences that make the service not just functional, but “magical.”
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla is hard at work in ensuring that users of its Robotaxi service are provided with the best user experience possible.
Robotaxi App features
As observed by Tesla community members, Tesla has gone live with a job listing for an iOS Engineer for its Robotaxi App. The job listing mentions the development of a “core mobile experience that enables customers to summon, track, and interact with a driverless vehicle. From requesting a ride to enabling frictionless entry, from trip planning to real-time vehicle status and media control.”
Interestingly enough, the job listing also mentioned the creation of polished experiences that make the Robotaxi more than just functional. “You will take full ownership of features—from architecture design to robust implementation—delivering delightful and polished experiences that make Robotaxi not just functional, but magical,” Tesla noted in its job listing.
Apple’s “magical” marketing
Tesla’s use of the word “magical” when referring to the Robotaxi app mirrors the marketing used by Apple for some of its key products. Apple typically uses the word when referring to products or solutions that transform complex technology into something that feels effortless, simple, and natural to daily life. Products such as the AirPods’ seamless pairing with the iPhone and FaceID’s complex yet simple-to-use security system have received Apple’s “magical” branding.
With this in mind, Tesla seems intent on developing a Robotaxi app that is sophisticated, but still very easy to use. Tesla already has extensive experience in this area, with the Tesla App consistently being hailed by users as one of the best in its segment. If Tesla succeeds in making the Robotaxi app worthy of its “magical” branding, then it wouldn’t be a surprise if the service sees rapid adoption even among mainstream consumers.
Tesla China’s domestic sales fell 4.8% in 2025, but it’s not doom and gloom
Tesla Robovan’s likely first real-world use teased by Boring Company President
