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Do autonomous cars make us worse drivers?

Autonomous cars are coming. So is the first fatality associated with them. Statistically, that milestone should occur in the next 18 months. What will happen then?

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Tesla in autonomous mode

On May 31, 2009, an Airbus 330 on its way from Rio de Janiero to Paris plunged from an altitude of 35,000 feet into the Atlantic, killing all 228 people on board. Just prior to the crash, the airplane was operating in autopilot mode. A reconstruction of the disaster revealed input from several sensors had been compromised by ice that caused them to give false readings. Updated sensors that were less susceptible to ice accumulation were waiting to be installed after the plane arrived in Paris.

Because of the false readings the autopilot system disengaged returning control to the pilots however the senior pilot was sleeping at the time. The two junior pilots were not as highly trained in high altitude flight as they might have been, partly because the use of machines to control aircraft under those conditions was the norm.

Faced with the unexpected, the pilots behaved poorly. At one point they are heard to say on the cockpit recorder, “We completely lost control of the airplane, and we don’t understand anything! We tried everything!” While they tried to rouse the sleeping senior pilot, the nose of the aircraft climbed until a stall was induced. Stall is the point at which the wings become barn doors instead of airfoils. The Airbus 330 dropped from the sky like a rock.

In his excellent story about the crash published on Vanity Fair, William Langewiesche offered this conclusion: “Automation has made it more and more unlikely that ordinary airline pilots will ever have to face a raw crisis in flight—but also more and more unlikely that they will be able to cope with such a crisis if one arises.”

The Tesla community has seen similar instances lately. The driver in Salt Lake City who accidentally activated Summon, causing his car to drive into the back of a truck. The woman on a freeway in California who rear ended a car that suddenly slowed in front of her. The man in Europe who crashed into the back of a van that had stalled in the high speed lane of a highway. He at least had the courage to admit his error. “Yes, I could have reacted sooner, but when the car slows down correctly 1,000 times, you trust it to do it the next time to. My bad.”

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After each of these incidents, the tendency has been for many to defend the machine and blame the human. But in a recent article for The Guardian, author Martin Robbins says, “Combine an autopilot with a good driver, and you get an autopilot with, if not a bad driver, at least not such a good one.” He says that statistically, the time when a car operating in autonomous mode causes a fatality is rapidly approaching.

Tesla_Model_S_dashcam-tacc-crash-van

Tesla Model S owner crashes into the back of a stalled van

On average, a person is killed in a traffic accident in the United States once every 100 million miles. Elon Musk says Tesla’s Autopilot is half as likely to be involved in a collision as a human driver. That would suggest that somewhere around the 200 million mile mark someone will die as a result of an automobile driven by a machine.

Tesla has already passed the 100 million mile mark for cars driving in Autopilot mode and continues to log 2.6 million miles driven per day. Statistically speaking, the time when a self driving car kills somebody is rapidly approaching. And since most autonomous cars on the road are Teslas, the odds are excellent it will be a Tesla that is involved in that first fatality.

What will happen then? Robbins goes back in history to look for an answer to that question. In 1896, Bridgit Driscoll became the first person in England to be killed by a motor car. The reaction among the public and the press was a fatalistic acceptance that progress will have a price. Within a few years, the speed limit in England was raised from 8 mph — which is was when Ms. Driscoll was killed — to 20 mph. This despite the fact that thousands of road deaths were being recorded on English roads by then.

Regulators around the world are racing to catch up with the explosion of new autonomous driving technology. But Robbins concludes,  “By the time they do, it’s likely that the technology will already be an accepted fact of life, its safety taken for granted by consumers, its failures written off as the fault of its error-prone human masters.”

The point is that injuries and fatalities will continue to occur as cars come to rely more and more on machines for routine driving chores. But in that transition period between now and the time when Level 4 autonomy becomes the norm — the day when cars come from the factory with no way for humans to control them directly — we need to accept that complacency and an inflated belief in the power of machines to protect us from harm may actually render us less competent behind the wheel.

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We will need to remain vigilant, if for no other reason than telling a jury “It’s not my fault! The machine failed!” is not going to insulate us from the legal requirement to operate our private automobiles in a safe and prudent manner.

 

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Tesla teases new market entrance with confusing and cryptic message

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla teased its entrance into a new market with a confusing and what appeared to be cryptic message on the social media platform X.

The company has been teasing its entrance into several markets, including Africa, which would be a first, and South America, where it only operates in Chile.

In September, Tesla started creating active job postings for the Colombian market, hinting it would expand its presence in South America and launch in a new country for the first time in two years.

Tesla job postings seem to show next surprise market entry

The jobs were related to various roles, including Associate Sales Manager, Advisors in Sales and Delivery, and Service Technicians. These are all roles that would indicate Tesla is planning to launch a wide-scale effort to sell, manage, and repair vehicles in the market.

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Last night, Tesla posted its latest hint, a cryptic video that seems to show the outline of Colombia, teasing its closer than ever to market entry:

This would be the next expansion into a continent where it does not have much of a presence for Tesla. Currently, there are only two Supercharger locations on the entire continent, and they’re both in Chile.

Tesla will obviously need to expand upon this crucial part of the ownership experience to enable a more confident consumer base in South America as a whole. However, it is not impossible, as many other EV charging infrastructures are available, and home charging is always a suitable option for those who have access to it.

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Surprisingly, Tesla seems to be more concerned about these middle-market countries as opposed to the larger markets in South America, but that could be by design.

If Tesla were to launch in Brazil initially, it may not be able to handle the uptick in demand, and infrastructure expansion could be more difficult. Brazil may be on its list in the upcoming years, but not as of right now.

@teslarati 🚨🚨 Tesla Full Self-Driving and Yap is the best driving experience #tesla #fsd #yapping ♬ I Run – HAVEN.

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Tesla expands crucial Supercharging feature for easier access

It is a useful tool, especially during hours of congestion. However, it has not been super effective for those who drive non-Tesla EVs, as other OEMs use UI platforms like Google’s Android Auto or Apple’s iOS.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has expanded a crucial Supercharging feature that helps owners identify stall availability at nearby locations.

Tesla said on Tuesday night that its “Live Availability” feature, which shows EV owners how many stalls are available at a Supercharger station, to Google Maps, a third-party app:

Already offering it in its own vehicles, the Live Availability feature that Teslas have is a helpful feature that helps you choose an appropriate station with plugs that are immediately available.

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A number on an icon where the Supercharger is located lets EV drivers know how many stalls are available.

It is a useful tool, especially during hours of congestion. However, it has not been super effective for those who drive non-Tesla EVs, as other OEMs use UI platforms like Google’s Android Auto or Apple’s iOS.

Essentially, when those drivers needed to charge at a Supercharger that enables non-Tesla EVs to plug in, there was a bit more of a gamble. There was no guarantee that a plug would be available, and with no way to see how many are open, it was a risk.

Tesla adding this feature allows people to have a more convenient and easier-to-use experience if they are in a non-Tesla EV. With the already expansive Supercharger Network being available to so many EV owners, there is more congestion than ever.

This new feature makes the entire experience better for all owners, especially as there is more transparency regarding the availability of plugs at Supercharger stalls.

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It will be interesting to see if Tesla is able to expand on this new move, as Apple Maps compatibility is an obvious goal of the company’s in the future, we could imagine. In fact, this is one of the first times an Android Auto feature is available to those owners before it became an option for iOS users.

Apple owners tend to get priority with new features within the Tesla App itself.

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Elon Musk’s Boring Co goes extra hard in Nashville with first rock-crushing TBM

The Boring Company’s machine for the project is now in final testing.

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Credit: The Boring Company/X

The Boring Company is gearing up to tackle one of its toughest projects yet, a new tunnel system beneath Nashville’s notoriously tough limestone terrain. Unlike the soft-soil conditions of Las Vegas and Austin, the Music City Loop will require a “hard-rock” boring machine capable of drilling through dense, erosion-resistant bedrock. 

The Boring Company’s machine for the project is now in final testing.

A boring hard-rock tunneling machine

The Boring Company revealed on X that its new hard-rock TBM can generate up to 4 million pounds of grip force and 1.5 million pounds of maximum thrust load. It also features a 15-filter dust removal system designed to keep operations clean and efficient during excavation even in places where hard rock is present.

Previous Boring Co. projects, including its Loop tunnels in Las Vegas, Austin, and Bastrop, were dug primarily through soft soils. Nashville’s geology, however, poses a different challenge. Boring Company CEO and President Steve Davis mentioned this challenge during the project’s announcement in late July.

“It’s a tough place to tunnel, Nashville. If we were optimizing for the easiest places to tunnel, it would not be here. You have extremely hard rock, like way harder than it should be. It’s an engineering problem that’s fairly easy and straightforward to solve,” Davis said.

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Nashville’s limestone terrain

Experts have stated that the city’s subsurface conditions make it one of the more complex tunneling environments in the U.S. The Outer Nashville Basin is composed of cherty Mississippian-age limestone, a strong yet soluble rock that can dissolve over time, creating underground voids and caves, as noted in a report from The Tennessean.

Jakob Walter, the founder and principal engineer of Haushepherd, shared his thoughts on these challenges. “Limestone is generally a stable sedimentary bedrock material with strength parameters that are favorable for tunneling. Limestone is however fairly soluble when compared to other rack materials, and can dissolve over long periods of time when exposed to water. 

“Unexpected encounters with these features while tunneling can result in significant construction delays and potential instability of the excavation. In urban locations, structures at the ground surface should also be constantly monitored with robotic total stations or similar surveying equipment to identify any early signs of movement or distress,” he said.

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