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What comes next for Tesla Autopilot and autonomous driving systems?

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Tesla v7.1 enhanced Autopilot visualization

The world seems to have oddly realized for the very first time that driving assist systems are still in its infancy stages and haven’t seen the decades of iterations that other technology platforms have had. As to why people have entrusted so much of their safety and lives to the word “autopilot”, going as far as shamelessly playing mahjongg on the internet while behind the wheel, checking their e-mail, and brazenly hopping away from the driver’s seat while their two-ton Autopilot-enabled Tesla drives on its own, goes beyond me.

And it’s because of this lack of human judgment that the statistically inevitable fatal accident behind the wheel of a Tesla may have arrived before its time.

Certainly Elon Musk and Tesla Motors have taken great pains to inform drivers they must remain in control of the car at all times when Autopilot is active. A message on the vehicle’s instrument cluster and warning chime reminds us of this. So why is there such a disconnect between what the system is capable of and what people’s expectations are?

“Everyone in the autonomous vehicle industry understands consumer over-trust is a significant problem,” says John Maddox, CEO of the American Center for Mobility. It is a proposed proving ground for connected and automated vehicles that is under development on 335 acres at Willow Run in Michigan. “No one has an answer to that problem yet, to be perfectly blunt. It’s human nature that when we’re bored with a given task we find something else to occupy our minds. There are ways the industry can look at to maintain driver interest,” Maddox says via USA Today.

Michigan wants to be at the forefront of development for autonomous driving systems and connected cars. “These technologies will be significantly better when the vehicles can ‘talk’ to each other and to signals in traffic lights and elsewhere,” says Kirk Steudle, director of the Michigan Department of Transportation. MDOT is working with General Motors, Ford, and the University of Michigan to deploy vehicle-to-infrastructure communication technology on more than 120 miles of metro Detroit roadway.

But the infrastructure to support connected car technology is still decades away. Those 120 miles of roads in Detroit are a minuscule proportion the millions of miles of roads in the US.

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In the meantime, drivers need to be better educated about what systems like Tesla’s Autopilot can and cannot do.

In the wake of Joshua Brown’s fatality, the NHTSA is expected to issue its first set of regulations for semi-autonomous cars in the fall of this year. The Senate Commerce Committee has decided the highest and best use of taxpayer dollars is to launch its own investigation. Its chairman, John Thune, Republican of South Dakota, has sent a request to Tesla to come and tell the committee what it is doing to prevent more fatal accidents. Apparently, Senator Thune thinks the members of his committee must weigh in on this issue while the headlines are there to be had, rather than waiting for NHTSA and NTSB to finish their investigations.

“An informed consumer is the best consumer,” MDOT’s Steudle said. “They really need to understand the limitations of what the technology can do currently. There’s a lot of information out there about where it can take us. But it’s not there yet.”

Strategies to reduce driver expectations might be a wise course of action for Tesla to follow at this juncture.

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

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One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Elon Musk hinted a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be coming, and Wall Street is taking notice.

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Elon Musk gave his clearest signal yet that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine, telling the All-In Summit in Los Angeles that the two companies’ deepening collaboration makes the question worth asking. Sawyer Merritt first surfaced the highlight on X Tuesday.

Asked directly why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate given how closely they already work together, Musk told hosts at the summit: “Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who joined Musk on stage, added that SpaceX personnel have already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps, saying the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought,” though “not fully integrated yet,”

The comments landed on top of merger speculation that has been building on Wall Street for months. JPMorgan has called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to overlapping ambitions in AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space. Jefferies went further, estimating Musk could retain roughly 55.3 percent voting control in a deal structured without a premium, a scenario that would still leave room for Tesla shareholders to come out ahead. On Kalshi, traders now put the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66 percent.

Tesla’s stake in SpaceX, still under one percent, traces back to its earlier investment in xAI, which converted to SpaceX equity after SpaceX absorbed the AI company. The two are also jointly building Terafab, a chip facility in Austin meant to serve both Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s satellite ambitions. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stood by a 2027 merger timeline for months, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently floated a similar case, an idea Musk pushed back on directly at the time.

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

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The timing adds another layer. Tesla has scheduled an October 1 unveiling for its next generation Roadster at a venue near SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site, using the phrase “Go for launch” in its promotional material. Both stocks dipped roughly 2 percent Monday before recovering slightly in premarket trading Tuesday, with SpaceX shares up about 0.4 percent and Tesla essentially flat.

Musk stopped short of confirming anything is in motion. But unlike his past denials of a corporate restructuring, this response didn’t rule one out, and it came with Shotwell sitting next to him describing an integration that’s already underway.

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Tesla Roadster unveiling is getting hyped up by Elon Musk

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tesla roadster
Credit: Petersen Auto Museum

The Tesla Roadster unveiling is getting hyped up by the company’s CEO Elon Musk, who has been a big reason the product has such high expectations due to delayed timelines and a constant need to make it even more insane than before.

Tesla announced on September 12 that it would officially unveil the Roadster in Waco, Texas, on October 1, ending years of patience for fans and reservation holders who have waited for the all-electric supercar to enter production since 2017.

Musk has said that this event will be well worth the wait on several occasions, and last year on the Joe Rogan Experience, he said that there should be a closing chapter to supercars- the end of cars that aren’t focused on safety.

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one. I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

Musk’s teases have continued, and now that the event is roughly two weeks away, it seems like Roadster is finally going to show up and blow some minds:

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Tesla has definitely dragged out the development of the Roadster, but there is a good reason for it.

Tesla has been working on many other projects, most notably self-driving efforts to increase passenger safety, and those simply took priority over the Roadster, a low-volume, high-performance sports car that has a lightning-fast acceleration rate of 0-60 MPH in just 1.1 seconds, could potentially fly, and contributes very little to the company’s mission.

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However, many people have the Roadster on pre-order through the referral program or with their own money, and it is time that Tesla delivers on that.

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