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Congress warned of delays to SpaceX and Boeing manned missions
The Government Accountability Office issued a report to Congress in which it warned legislators there is a strong likelihood neither SpaceX nor Boeing will be ready to fly astronauts to the International Space Station prior to 2019. Both had originally planned to begin crewed ISS missions in 2018. Because of the delay, the GAO is advising NASA to come up with backup plans for transporting astronauts to and from the ISS after 2018.
At present, the only transportation available is aboard a Russian Soyuz rocket, for which the fee is $80 million per person. NASA has already booked the seats it needs through the end of 2018 but the GAO report means it will need to start reserving seats for 2019 as well. It takes three years to complete the booking process, so there is no time to lose.
If SpaceX or Boeing can’t provide space transportation by then, NASA could be faced with a period of time when it has no way to get people up to the ISS or return them to earth. “Without a viable contingency option for ensuring uninterrupted access to the ISS in the event of further Commercial Crew delays, NASA risks not being able to maximize the return on its multibillion dollar investment in the space station,” the GAO report states. NASA says it is in agreement with the report’s findings and that it will have a contingency plan in place by March 13.
The problems for SpaceX center on changes to the Falcon 9 rocket that are underway. Known by the name of Block 5, the upgrades involve five major changes to the rockets. The Verge reports that the GAO is concerned those changes will not be completed and verified by NASA in time for the proposed first unmanned flight of the Dragon space capsule scheduled for later this year. In addition, SpaceX is working to allay fears about cracking in turbine blades that NASA claims constitute an “unacceptable risk” for crewed missions.
Boeing’s troubles are partly centered on the fact that its Atlas V rocket uses Russian made engines. Russia and the United States are not enjoying the warmest of relationships at the moment and NASA is having difficulty getting the information it needs to verify the engines are safe for crewed missions. Boeing is also behind in testing the parachute recovery system for is CST-100 Starliner space capsule.
In the report, the GAO sets forth the complex requirements involved in certifying that a spacecraft is safe for human travelers.
“Before a company’s crew transportation system can be certified by NASA, it must meet two sets of requirements. The ISS program levies a set of 332 requirements that must be met by all visiting spacecraft, whether they are carrying cargo or crew to the station. There are three major areas outlined in the ISS requirements document: 1) interface requirements for both the ISS and the spacecraft; 2) performance requirements for ground systems supporting the spacecraft; and 3) design requirements for spacecraft to ensure safe integration with the ISS.”
In September, 2014, NASA awarded two contracts for Commercial Crew Transportation development — $4.2 billion to Boeing and $2.6 billion to SpaceX. The need for the United States to be able to deliver and retrieve ISS crew members is urgent but urgency cannot be allowed to overrule safety. Perhaps SpaceX or Boeing will make progress faster than the GAO expects and everyone will be able to breath a sigh of relief. Until then, the pressure to complete testing and obtain all necessary certifications is, and will remain, intense. The ISS is expected to remain operational until 2024.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
