SpaceX
Elon Musk has already “won” Mars by changing Boeing’s conversation
Boeing vs. SpaceX? Hmm.
In the Mel Brooks film, “Robin Hood: Men in Tights”, there’s an amusing scene wherein the Sheriff of Rottingham challenges Robin Hood to a duel after he and his men crash Prince John’s party. After uttering the challenge, the Sheriff proceeds to slap Robin across the face with his metro-sleek leather glove. In response, Robin picks up a heavy, metal-armored knight glove and whacks him across the face to accept.
Not a perfect metaphor, but close enough for our purposes. Credit: Web Summit, with clip art addition and filters.
I guess you see where I’m going with this. Now that I’ve introduced the topic visually…
Boeing Brings Out the (Leather) Mars Glove
When I saw headlines claiming that Boeing would “beat” SpaceX to Mars, I had two thoughts:
- Well isn’t that nice of Boeing to officially throw their hat in the ring after they helped take us to the moon? And…
- Wasn’t this the entire point of SpaceX’s push for Mars in the first place?
I definitely understand the need for competition to drive innovation among the general human population. I also certainly understand that it was the “space race” against the Soviets that took us to the moon, so overstating a competition is more PR move than reality; however, given the non-aggressive nature Elon has taken towards developing the technology to get us to the elusive red planet (i.e., more focused on getting us there than saying much about the competition), I was expecting to have missed something from SpaceX judging by the sudden grandiose claims. Did I overlook a Google Alert on something Elon said that caused Boeing to bite back?
Er, okay. Maybe Elon’s prior non-complimentary remarks on Boeing’s approach to surface landing wasn’t given or received in the most cooperative spirit. Technology designers are allowed to disagree, right? I’m sure the comment only helped fuel the fires of speculation. That, along with the fact that we are a tabloid-minded species that likes to understand the world through the lens of “us vs. them”, and we see boxing-style headlines on the Mars missions rather than the shoulder shrug, head-nod variety of mutual goal pursuit.
Alternatively, the Boeing step-up could have just been a result of their new guy (CEO/Chairman/President) at the helm. Along with an engineering background and having spent his entire career at Boeing, Dennis Muilenburg actually has some spunk. He seems like a cool dude, pretty inspired by Boeing’s history, confident in its future, and quite honestly, I wish he would don a long-haired wig and give us a Zaphod Beeblebrox number for Halloween. Seriously. Watch his recent AtlanticLIVE interview, and then watch Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (2005). You’ll see what I mean (at 1:51 specifically). That’s got to be a winning combination, no?
[P.S. I am in no way implying that you are not allowed to have a full brain to be the head of Boeing.]
Elon Has Already “Won” Mars
In terms of accomplishment (and his own standards), Elon has already done what he set out to do with SpaceX originally. With an anticipated success rate of “less than 10%” for the company, he was already okay with the company closing up shop after a good try in the hopes that someone else would “pick up the baton”. Getting a 100-year old curmudgeon tech company on the bandwagon for interplanetary travel? That’s a “win” right there if I’ve ever seen one.
The best part about all of this Mars chatter? It’s officially moved into the zone of potential realities. Where Mars habitation was only the stuff of science fiction in the past, now “…success is one of the possible outcomes,” to quote Elon’s exact words.
Considering all the considerables (including Elon’s own mention of multiple companies heading for Mars being a good thing), there really isn’t a big race for Boeing to chomp at here. Whether SpaceX is first with Falcon Heavy or Boeing gets there with its Space Launch System, everybody wins. #teamHuman
Of course, I think having coffee shops and movie theaters for the journey is way more awesome than an oversized capsule, but until I have some $200k in pocket cash for a ticket, that’s none of my business.
Onwards.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its second public earnings call today since its IPO earlier this year, and there are a few things we expect to hear about, as well as Wall Street analysts, who have already outlined their expectations for the call.
Wall Street analysts have a consensus of $12.72 billion in revenue and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13. These are broken down into three sectors: Space, Connectivity, and AI/SI, which are perceived in this way:
- Space: $1.41 billion
- Connectivity: $4.84 billion
- AI/SI: $6.47 billion
Other outlets cluster near $12.8 or $12.9 billion in revenue and $0.14 – $0.15 EPS. This implies a roughly 65 percent sequential growth from Q2’s $7.81 billion, driven mostly by AI/SI, with the first post-IPO positive EPS expected.
Here are the three things to watch for on the call:
AI Revenue Ramp and the $100B+ ARR target
AI is truly the swing factor for SpaceX, and analysts expect it to roughly double from Q2’s $2.56 billion and become about half of total revenue. Management previously guided to a $100 billion+ annualized run rate by December, including the Cursor acquisition, which was $60 billion, to close the quarter.
Listen for updates on SpaceX’s compute capacity, especially pertaining to its contracts with Google, Anthropic, and others, revenue per watt, any new deals, and Cursor’s early contribution.
Starlink/Connectivity Metrics and Mobile Expansion
Connectivity remains a main profit engine for SpaceX. Subscriber additions will be something to pay attention to, as Q2 ended at 12 million and previews are looking at 14 million for this quarter. Additionally, ARPU trends, enterprise and government growth, and any commentary on Starlink Mobile will be something to pay attention to, especially following the recent low-band spectrum deal and FCC-related constellation approvals.
Capex Trajectory, Cash Burn/FCF, and Starship/Operational Updates
Q2 capex of roughly $18.4 billion weighed on the stock. Investors will look to scrutinize Q3 spending levels, any guidance on the pace into Q4/2027, free cash flow, backlog, and liquidity. Operational color on Starship (Flight 14 milestones and Flight 15 timing/reusability progress), Falcon cadence, and government/NASA contracts are also in focus.
Of course, there will also be some speculation on the potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, but there was nothing mentioned in the company’s proxy it sent earlier this week.
SpaceX will report earnings after market close today and will stream the call on X.
Watch live as SpaceX discusses our Q3 2026 earnings at 3:30pm CT today → https://t.co/Qrb0qeVG15
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 20, 2026
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News
SpaceX just launched its secret Starfall saucer again
SpaceX launched its Starfall capsule again on Bandwagon-5, this time listed openly beside rideshare customers.
SpaceX launched its Starfall reentry capsule for the second time on Tuesday morning, flying it as the payload of the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission. Falcon 9 lifted off from Space Launch Complex 40 in Florida at 7:04 a.m. ET with 32 payloads, and the first stage booster, on its 19th flight, landed on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas about nine minutes later.
Starfall was scheduled to separate last, 2 hours and 48 minutes after liftoff. The final customer satellite on SpaceX’s mission timeline comes off the upper stage about an hour and nine minutes in, which left a long gap before the capsule was due to be released alone. SpaceX later posted that the payload deployment sequence is complete. At liftoff, the company said Starfall “enables affordable, routine access to a microgravity environment, providing unique opportunities for on-orbit manufacturing, scientific research, and testing.”
Starfall enables affordable, routine access to a microgravity environment, providing unique opportunities for on-orbit manufacturing, scientific research, and testing https://t.co/y8kJg3QDor
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 20, 2026
As Teslarati reported before the first Starfall flight, SpaceX made no public announcement about the vehicle then, and nearly everything known came from FAA and FCC filings. This time Starfall is an item name on the official mission page, listed beside paying rideshare customers. SpaceX has still not said what, if anything, is aboard this Starfall, Spaceflight Now noted.
The FAA’s environmental assessment from May describes a disk about 10.2 feet wide and 2.5 feet tall that weighs roughly 4,600 pounds and can bring 2,200 pounds of payload back to Earth.
Interestingly, the same rocket also carries a competitor’s hardware. Varda Space Industries launched its W-Series 7 capsule on Bandwagon-5, a spacecraft about three times smaller than Starfall that will test whether microgravity can improve the solubility of a cancer drug called Protac. It is Varda’s ninth reentry capsule, and W-8 and W-9 launched earlier this month on Transporter-18. SpaceX has been Varda’s launch provider since the company’s first Falcon 9 rideshare contract in 2021.
SpaceX has not published where or how this Starfall will come down. The preview we ran in June described a recovery from the Pacific Ocean, and the company has not said whether this flight follows the same plan. The launch also arrives hours before SpaceX posts its third quarter results after the market closes, a report we previewed earlier this week.
Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”
SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.
It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.
Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.
Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2026
There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.
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