SpaceX
Elon Musk has already “won” Mars by changing Boeing’s conversation
Boeing vs. SpaceX? Hmm.
In the Mel Brooks film, “Robin Hood: Men in Tights”, there’s an amusing scene wherein the Sheriff of Rottingham challenges Robin Hood to a duel after he and his men crash Prince John’s party. After uttering the challenge, the Sheriff proceeds to slap Robin across the face with his metro-sleek leather glove. In response, Robin picks up a heavy, metal-armored knight glove and whacks him across the face to accept.
Not a perfect metaphor, but close enough for our purposes. Credit: Web Summit, with clip art addition and filters.
I guess you see where I’m going with this. Now that I’ve introduced the topic visually…
Boeing Brings Out the (Leather) Mars Glove
When I saw headlines claiming that Boeing would “beat” SpaceX to Mars, I had two thoughts:
- Well isn’t that nice of Boeing to officially throw their hat in the ring after they helped take us to the moon? And…
- Wasn’t this the entire point of SpaceX’s push for Mars in the first place?
I definitely understand the need for competition to drive innovation among the general human population. I also certainly understand that it was the “space race” against the Soviets that took us to the moon, so overstating a competition is more PR move than reality; however, given the non-aggressive nature Elon has taken towards developing the technology to get us to the elusive red planet (i.e., more focused on getting us there than saying much about the competition), I was expecting to have missed something from SpaceX judging by the sudden grandiose claims. Did I overlook a Google Alert on something Elon said that caused Boeing to bite back?
Er, okay. Maybe Elon’s prior non-complimentary remarks on Boeing’s approach to surface landing wasn’t given or received in the most cooperative spirit. Technology designers are allowed to disagree, right? I’m sure the comment only helped fuel the fires of speculation. That, along with the fact that we are a tabloid-minded species that likes to understand the world through the lens of “us vs. them”, and we see boxing-style headlines on the Mars missions rather than the shoulder shrug, head-nod variety of mutual goal pursuit.
Alternatively, the Boeing step-up could have just been a result of their new guy (CEO/Chairman/President) at the helm. Along with an engineering background and having spent his entire career at Boeing, Dennis Muilenburg actually has some spunk. He seems like a cool dude, pretty inspired by Boeing’s history, confident in its future, and quite honestly, I wish he would don a long-haired wig and give us a Zaphod Beeblebrox number for Halloween. Seriously. Watch his recent AtlanticLIVE interview, and then watch Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (2005). You’ll see what I mean (at 1:51 specifically). That’s got to be a winning combination, no?
[P.S. I am in no way implying that you are not allowed to have a full brain to be the head of Boeing.]
Elon Has Already “Won” Mars
In terms of accomplishment (and his own standards), Elon has already done what he set out to do with SpaceX originally. With an anticipated success rate of “less than 10%” for the company, he was already okay with the company closing up shop after a good try in the hopes that someone else would “pick up the baton”. Getting a 100-year old curmudgeon tech company on the bandwagon for interplanetary travel? That’s a “win” right there if I’ve ever seen one.
The best part about all of this Mars chatter? It’s officially moved into the zone of potential realities. Where Mars habitation was only the stuff of science fiction in the past, now “…success is one of the possible outcomes,” to quote Elon’s exact words.
Considering all the considerables (including Elon’s own mention of multiple companies heading for Mars being a good thing), there really isn’t a big race for Boeing to chomp at here. Whether SpaceX is first with Falcon Heavy or Boeing gets there with its Space Launch System, everybody wins. #teamHuman
Of course, I think having coffee shops and movie theaters for the journey is way more awesome than an oversized capsule, but until I have some $200k in pocket cash for a ticket, that’s none of my business.
Onwards.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.
A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.
The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.
Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.
What does a Merger of Equals mean to Elon’s compensation packages?
Well, it changes everything.
Enjoy https://t.co/uekCldyITw pic.twitter.com/kolq1C9qTu
— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) June 1, 2026
The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.
Do you plan on buying @SpaceX stock at its IPO?
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 1, 2026
Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
Elon Musk
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.
The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.
Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI
Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.
Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.
What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
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